Welcome, 4EYEDfans! I hope you all are staying safe! I know the Fantasy In Frames crew is preparing for football, and I hope you are as well!
This is the 1st installment of my new series, titled “IDP Impact“, where I will take you from division to division, highlighting the IDP relevant players for each team. A team-based approach focusing on the scheme, with attention to the offensive side of the ball, should help us identify my personal favorite IDP safe plays and deep dive targets.
This first installment, we will head to the AFC EAST!
MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are coming off of a season in which they ranked dead last in the league in Points Allowed, 3rd from last in Yards Allowed, and last in Sacks. It’s hard to look at a defense that was so poor across the board, but there is optimism in both the real and fantasy world. For starters, the Dolphins were so bad against the pass (39 TD allowed), and run (27th in Rush Yards Allowed), there is nowhere to go but up! For a defense that was so poor, and constantly on the field (5th most plays against), one would assume that there would be a more impactful IDP player? Jerome Baker was the lone Dolphin to finish inside the top 50 overall in IDP scoring last year (33rd overall, 25th LB). Baker finished 14th in the NFL last year in Combine Tackles, cut his missed tackles in half, and doubled his total numbers of blitzes!
It’s no mystery that the Dolphins have improved tremendously on the defensive side of the ball. Brian Flores is no stranger to defense. He has made his living from learning under Bill Belichik during his 10-year tenure with NE. In true NE fashion, he evaluated his weaknesses and addressed them head-on. They added Shaq Lawson so fill the left side of the line, Kyle Van Noy at OLB, Emmanual Ogbah to rotate along the line, and most importantly, signed Byron Jones to complete the overhaul! This years’ Dolphins team might not make a Super Bowl run, but there is good reason to believe that they should have the biggest improvement on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL.
I personally like a lot of the pieces this year for MIA from an IDP standpoint. Shaq Lawson is one that I really like this year. Coming off of a season in which he only played 483 snaps, he piled up 7 sacks, 18 hurries, and 13 TFl. The change to a 4-3 approach this year could really bring out the 1st rounder that Buffalo thought they had drafted. If DT is a must-draft position in your league, look no further than Davon Godchaux. Godchaux made huge strides from 18-19 when he improved from 48 tackles to 75 in 19 and got into the backfield much more easily. With the improvements that the Dolphins made in the secondary, I think they will face more run-heavy approaches, giving Godchaux more tackles opportunities, and not to mention, the addition of Lawson and Ogbah should free him up from double teams. As I mentioned, DT/NT isn’t exactly a gold mine for IDP, if you are forced to draft one, I would be happy to wait and grab Godchaux.
As I previously mentioned, the Dolphins made a superior move to improve an inferior secondary. Byron Jones! While Jones will not be an IDP superstar simply because he won’t see enough attention, I do believe his addition clears the way for another DB to make big strides and potentially be a late-round steal. That player is Eric Rowe. Rowe had joined the Dolphins in 2019 after spending his previous 3 years in New England. Brian Flores brought Rowe with him, and even extended him until 2022. In his first year with Miami, he started as many games as he had in his 3 previous years COMBINED!
The big reason why I think we see a jump this year will be the addition of Byron Jones. Having Jones and Howard at the corners will most likely divert the number of passes towards the middle of the field, where Rowe will be “Rowe-ming”. Ugg, even I think that is bad. I digress. Rowe’s speed and athleticism make him a candidate to play NB at times, thus keeping him on the field. If there is one thing about a solid NE defense, which I assume the Dolphins will want to emulate, is having a strong Safety presence all over the field. Dont’ be shocked to see him improve upon his 81 tackles from last year, and his ball-hawking ways contributing to some solid takeaway numbers as well. Rowe is currently being drafted as the 44th DB off the board, so he is basically free.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills were one of the NFL’s top defenses last year. Ranking 2nd in fewest Points Against, 3rd in fewest Yards Against, and top 10 in turnovers! The key element to this defense last year was not only a stout defense but an offense that ranked 20th in plays. When evaluating a defense’s key pieces to IDP scoring, it is important to note that a defensive unit that is not on the field, cannot score points. That is not to say those elite defenses will not have relevant IDP players, but it definitely highlights the splash plays and big tackle contributors. For instance, last year the Bills had a couple of IDP stalwarts from last year. Tremaine Edmunds was an LB3, Jordan Phillips was a DL3, Tre’Davious White finished as a DB3, Poyer was an elite DB1 (5th overall in scoring). Edmunds and Poyer are returning for 2020, but Phillips has moved on to the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills did make some solid additions to make up for the loss of Phillips and Shaq Lawson (signed by Miami), in the signings of Quinton Jefferson, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, and Josh Norman. Let’s not forget they also stole AJ Epenesa in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are returning the most snaps to a single defensive unit from 2019.
When it comes to players that can contribute in IDP formats, Jordan Poyer is the 1st person that I have to mention. Poyer has finished in the top 5 of CB over the past 3 years and looks to continue that trend in 2020. Entering his 4th year with Buffalo, Poyer has had 60+ solo tackles in each season, to go along with 11 INT, 17TFL, 5 sacks, and 22 pass defenses. His ball-hawking ability, coupled with his football IQ make him as solid a pick at DB as there is this year. My pick for IDP “highest floor” player from the Bills is Tremaine Edmunds
Tremaine Edmunds, as I mentioned earlier finished as an LB3 last year. Only 22 years old, Edmunds is coming off of back to back 115+ tackle seasons. Let’s not forget to mention that he has played in 99.9% of all snaps in both 18 and 19! Edmunds used 2019 to improve upon his pass-rushing prowess and had improved his number of blitzes from 37 to 64. While the sacks weren’t there, the sheer volume should translate into production, given his age-related learning curve. Speaking of his learning curve, Edmunds also cut his missed tackles nearly in half (16.6%-9.45%). All of this information is just eluding to the fact that he is an evolving talent on a really good team. I am looking at the Bills’ schedule and I see a lot of teams that are run-heavy and a short aDOT (average depth of target). Those two stats should lead to help keep his floor where it is at, with an upside to legitimately be near the top of the league in tackles. Add in a little luck with some FF and FR, and you could be looking at the #1 LB by seasons’ end. His ADP currently has him going 60 picks after Darius Leonard. I would rather wait for 5 rounds and grab Edmunds.
New England Patriots
What needs to be said about the Patriots that wasn’t already apparent after last year? They were 1st in Points Allowed, Yards Allowed, 1st downs allowed, Pass TD allowed, Interceptions, Rush TD allowed, TO%, and Expected points by the defense. That is a mouthful! The Patriots, from a defensive standpoint, should have another productive year. Despite losing a couple key pieces (Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton), Bill Belichick will have this defense in a position to be successful. If you look over the past decade, there have been multiple seasons in which the Patriots have lost key pieces to free agency, and yet they didn’t skip a beat. The common denominator in that equation has been Tom Brady. As you know, Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. What does this mean to the defense? That is the $1,000,000 question. If the offense sputters and can’t move the ball, it could put the defense in a position to see the field much more than last year, and thus, lead to more points. So will there be IDP relevant players on a defense that is created to work cohesively and not need individual performances?
Let’s begin with the most likely player to not return a profit at his current ADP. Stephon Gilmore currently has an ADP, according to www.myfantasyleague.com, as the 30th DB off the board. Yes, that is rather low for a CB that finished last year 22nd overall, but there are reasons to be skeptical. First, I can’t envision a situation where he is targeted, at or near, the 21% mark like he was in 2019. Don’t get me wrong, he is an absolute stud in real football, but typically corners that grade out first in Coverage Rating, Catch rate allowed, passer rating allowed aren’t heavily targeted. He also finished 2nd among qualified CB’s in pass breakups and fantasy points allowed per target. While these are very impressive numbers, they make me feel like he will be less targeted, and therefore won’t put up the numbers that he did last year. (6INT, 2TD, 20Pass Defended).
As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots lost key LB’s in Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, which leaves plenty of tackles to be absorbed by somebody. Who will be that somebody? While I have no doubt that D’onta Hightower is an amazing LB, his key attribute is getting to the quarterback. For my taste, I want to focus on an LB who will get to the ballcarrier. That LB is Ja’Whaun Bentley. The 2nd year LB out of Purdue hasn’t exactly made a name for himself, but I think by season’s end, assuming it’s a healthy one, will be a potentially IDP relevant one. The 5th round pick in 2018 only played in 3 games in 2018, but in those games, he had 14 tackles (9 solo), 1 Int, 1 PD, and 1 TFL. Fast forward to 2019 due to season-ending surgery, and Bentley was once again given few, but productive opportunities. Used sparingly in 2019 (31% snap share), he posted more than respectable numbers. 38 tackles (25 solo), 2TFL, 1PD. Bentley should have the starting ILB job this year and assuming health, could put up some good tackle numbers. It always helps when you have one of the best secondaries in football.
Currently being undrafted, I wouldn’t recommend drafting Bently as anything other than a last round dart throw, or a dynasty piece, but opportunity breeds success!
New York Jets
It was a long season for the Jets last year, but that was not without some positive momentum on the defensive side of the ball. Gregg Williams came in and really put his mark on the defense. He was a hit! The bounty was plentiful….ok, ok, ok, we get it. Enough Greg Williams jokes. All joking aside, the Jets are solid on defense. They finished last year 17th in points allowed, 18th in TO’s and 16th vs the pass. There was one element that was actually really good tho, and that was stopping the run. They finished with a league-best 3.3 ypa on 417 carries, good for 2nd best rush yards allowed. From an efficiency standpoint, they weren’t too effective at getting to the QB (39.2% Blitz rate vs 7.7% hurry rate).
While the numbers overall vs the pass and getting to the QB, in general, were a little disappointing, the roster going forward could be the most disappointing element to the team. As of writing, Pro Bowl S, Jamal Adams, has demanded a trade and could end up somewhere else this season. Adams, the consensus #1 DB, according to MyFantasyLeague ADP, is an absolute beast. His presence on the field alone puts the opposition on notice and will be a welcome addition to whatever team is lucky enough to acquire him.
Edit: Jamal Adams was traded to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for Bradley McDougald. McDougald, signed out of college by the Chiefs in 2013, had spent his career with the Chiefs, Bucs, and Seahawks before being traded to the Jets along with a lot of draft capital (2021 1st/3rd-2022 1st). MacDougald, who stepped in for an injured Earl Thomas, had grown into a solid, yet unspectacular, safety for the Seahawks. The position wasn’t one that resulted in a lot of IDP relevance tho. He averaged a decent 8.2 fppg, but Seattle simply didn’t blitz him enough. The switch to NYJ could result in being asked to have more impact in that area, seeing as how Adams recorded 6.5 sacks. I wouldn’t expect McDougald to turn into Jamal Adams, but an increase in backfield presence could be significant.
Since picking the low hanging fruit isn’t quite as fun as reaching a bit, I am going to pass on using Adams for this exercise. Instead, I am going to go after some bruised fruit on the ground next to the tree. That bruised fruit, literally, is C.J. Mosley. Signed in 2018 by the Jets, Mosley didn’t quite have the production that he was known for in Baltimore. That is as a result of season-ending core muscle surgery. That is not without making a splash in his limited time on the field. In week 1, he had 6 tackles, 2 pass defenses, 1 INT, 1 FR and 1 TD! Then he injured his groin. Fast forward to week 7, Mosley is back and reinjures himself, which led to the season-ending surgery.
In January Mosley was running and appears to be cleared for training camp! Still just 28, Mosley is ready to contribute in a big way. Currently being drafted as the 24th, I believe health concerns are baked into his projections. I think, Mosley fits in extremely well with Williams’ philosophy. We don’t have to look too far back in the past to see a top 2 finish (2017). Give me a pedigree of success, with the desire to make amends from an injury-shortened season, and I will run with it.
Edit: On August 3rd, C.J. Mosley opted out for the 2020 NFL season. I want to begin by saying that I wish him and his family the best and I hope others know that family and health should come first. That being said, there is a pretty significant hole to fill for the Jets. I had Mosley as a huge bounceback candidate, but I will have to forego that thought. On a positive note, the Jets have a player returning from a lost 2019 season due to a torn ACL, and that player is Avery Williamson In 2018, Williamson tallied 120 tackles (80 solo), 3 sacks, 6 PD and 6 TFL. Entering the 2020 season, the loss of Mosley and the fact that the other starting ILB is a rookie in Patrick Onwuasor, Williams is going to have a lot on his plate in the way of tackles.
That wraps up the IDP Impact In The AFC East. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me @natemarcum on Twitter.
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