The semi-finals are here for most fantasy football leagues. We have all been working towards this for the entire season: a chance to play for a championship. We are just one game away from playing for the title.
We are going to mull over every single lineup decision this week. Make sure to look at your players’ individual matchups and take notice of who has been hot and who has not of late.
Make sure to check out our Fantasy In Frames IDP waiver-wire article every week to fill in your open roster spots or replace injured players.
Below are my educated guesses of players to Play and others to Fade for Week 16 of the NFL season.
As always, I am going to give you some players I think could have a better week than expected or might have a worse game than predicted.
Here we go!
Defensive Linemen:
Plays
- George Karlaftis, DE Chiefs vs Texans
- Karlaftis is getting hot at the right time of year. He had a season-high two sacks in Week 15 against the Browns, who are tied for the most sacks against this season. Karlaftis has six sacks in his last eight games.
- This is another premium matchup for Karlaftis. Houston has struggled to protect quarterback CJ Stroud all season. The Texans are tied for fifth in the league with 46 sacks given up to opposing defenses. Karlaftis is a nice upside player in leagues that reward big points for sacks.
2. Greg Rousseau, DE Bills vs Patriots
- Rousseau is on a heater, folks! He has a sack in four straight games and 7.5 sacks on the season. He has also added 19 tackles during that span. Rousseau is DL7 on the season, according to FantasyPros scoring, averaging 10.3 points per game.
- The Patriots offensive line has been maligned all season. They have struggled to keep defenders off of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Rousseau has a great opportunity to keep the streak alive and add to his sack total for the season.
3. Matt Judon, DE, Falcons vs Giants
- Judon was one of the league’s top sack masters during his time in New England, but he has struggled a bit this season on his new team. Judon has only 3.5 sacks on the season. So why am I saying he is a play? Judon has stepped up with two sacks in the past three games.
- Judon played just 57% of snaps last week against the Raiders, but he led all Falcons’ edge rushers in snaps. He won’t get a ton of volume overall, but this is somewhat of a gut call this week. The Giants are a team that is absolutely struggling. The Falcons’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. The entire team needs to show out this week against a New York team that is currently tied for the rights to the top draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Fades
- Odafe Oweh, DE Ravens vs Steelers
- Now, I know this seems like a strange fade this week, but hear me out. Oweh had his best game of the season against the Steelers in Week 11 with five tackles and a season-high 2.5 sacks. That would usually scream play in this situation, but things have changed since then.
- Oweh has been dealing with an ankle injury, and he had a concerning snap share leading up to the Ravens bye in Week 14. He played just 27% of his team’s defensive snaps. His snap share increased in Week 15, but only to 47% as he was third on the depth chart among the team’s edge rushers. It was a favorable matchup against a bad Giants team that was playing from behind all day, but Oweh struggled to provide anything encouraging. I just don’t trust him in my starting lineups in Week 16.
- Carl Granderson, DE Saints at Packers
- Believe it or not, the former Washington Commander and San Francisco 49er has been leading the charge in terms of pressures and sacks since Week 12 for the Saints, but still, I just don’t trust any of New Orleans pass rushers for this week going against the pass blockers of Green Bay.
- The Packers are allowing the second-fewest sacks on the season. Over the past month, Rasheed Walker and Zack Tom have only allowed one sack of quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers should be playing from ahead in this one and giving running back Josh Jacobs all the carries he can handle. This is a very poor matchup for the Saints pass rushers.
- DJ Wonnum, DE Panthers vs Cardinals
- For those IDP managers who have been playing Wonnum, they have relied on his volume to get some fantasy production. He played 82% of snaps against the Cowboys in Week 15, but he didn’t record a single pressure. He also had a 0% pass rush win rate, and finished with just three tackles.
- The snap share obviously gives Wonnum a decent chance to put together some fantasy points. He does have three sacks in his last five games, but I’m looking for someone else in my lineup to produce for me with a trip to the finals on the line.
Linebackers:
Plays
- Demario Davis, LB Saints at Packers
- Over the past month, Davis has been the LB11 in points per game according to Fantasy Pros scoring. He is coming off of a 14 tackle and one sack performance against the Commanders in Week 15. He also had eight total tackles and an interception versus the Giants in Week 14.
- While the Packers are a terrible matchup for pass rushers, this is a prime spot for linebackers to clean up on tackles. Fun Fact: On the season, the Saints defenders have the second most solo tackles made of any team in the NFL. Davis is the far more efficient tackler over Pete Werner, and with a run-heavy Green Bay offense on the horizon, Davis is in line for another big week.
- Micah McFadden, LB Giants at Falcons
- Fellow linebacker Bobby Okereke has been nursing an injured back of late, giving McFadden the opportunity to lead this defense. In Week 15 against the Ravens, McFadden played 100% of snaps for the first time in his career. He had a 13.6% tackle rate on the day, recording 11 tackles, seven solo, with a sack. McFadden now has 11 tackles or more in four of his last six games.
- The Falcons are giving rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. his first career start on Sunday replacing former starter Kirk Cousins. Penix has only seen action in two games this season and is just 3 for 5 passing for 38 yards. Atlanta will likely want to ease Penix in. Expect a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier running the football throughout the day.
- Patrick Queen, LB Steelers at Ravens
- Earlier this season, Queen was one of my Plays against the Ravens. He is again for their second meeting. Queen left Baltimore to sign with Pittsburgh, its bitter rival, in the offseason, and a war of words ensued. Queen is likely to hear plenty of “boos” coming from the home fans in this one. I think he will be ready.
- This is always a knock-down-drag-out fight between these two franchises. The AFC North Division Title and playoff positioning is on the line. Queen had 10 tackles and a big forced fumble in the Week 11 battle. I think he can come close to repeating that performance.
Fades
- TJ Edwards, LB Bears vs Lions
- With the news that Detroit running back David Montgomery is out for the remainder of the season, that leaves dual-threat RB Jamyr Gibbs to take over the full-time backfield duties. The chances of Edwards being that run-stopping linebacker that IDP managers know and love is now in doubt. The last time these two teams played, Montgomery had 21 carries, and yet Edwards was still only able to tally six solo tackles in a somewhat surprisingly close game on Thanksgiving Day.
- The passing game is where Detroit is going to do its most damage, I believe, thus lowering Edwards’ floor even though over the past month he has been the LB9 in Fantasy Pros scoring. This is not meant as a must sit by any means, but if you have a deep LB unit, you might want to take a closer look and see if you have a better matchup somewhere else on the roster.
- Nate Landman, LB Falcons vs Giants
- When it was announced that fellow linebacker Troy Andersen was headed back to the injured reserve list, ending his season, there was a brief moment when IDP managers were licking their chops, thinking the LB2 role on Atlanta would fully go back to Landman. Those hopes were crushed when Landman instead split time with JD Bertrand in Week 15. In fact, Bertrand played 43% of snaps compared to Landman’s 30%. That’s just brutal for Landman owners.
- Landman had played fairly well this season when he got a higher snap share. In the three games leading up to Week 15, he had eight or more tackles in those contests. But with the limited playing time, he was limited to just three tackles with one solo stop against the Raiders last week. It is hard to see a scenario right now, where Landman can be trusted in your lineups the rest of the way.
- All Titans Linebackers at Colts
- This thing is just a mess right now. With injuries, in-active players, and everything in-between, I’m avoiding this group all together. Who knows what the snap share is going to look like between Luke Gifford, Jerome Baker, Otis Reese, James Williams, and Cerdic Gray. Kenneth Murray is the only guaranteed starter this week, and I’m not high on him either at this point.
- To make matters worse, the Colts have given up the sixth-fewest points to linebackers this season. Running back Jonathan Taylor and quarterback Anthony Richardson are still getting a good amount of carries between them, but Indianapolis has not been able to sustain long drives, lowering the opposing defenses snap count. This isn’t an ideal matchup for any of the Titans LBs in the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs.
Defensive Backs:
Plays
- Brian Branch, S Lions at Bears
- There has been some frustration among IDP managers with Branch’s production the last couple of weeks. But Branch was able to break out in Week 15 with a team-leading 15 total tackles, two for a loss, and he added a pass breakup against the Bills.
- The Bears have not been taking care of the ball. There should be opportunities for takeaways by this Lions’ defense. Don’t let some of the below-average weeks scare you away, Branch is one of the top IDP safeties in the game. He is currently DB3 in Fantasy Pros scoring, averaging 13.1 points per game. Don’t get cute, he should be starting in your lineup the rest of the playoffs.
- Josh Metellus, S Vikings at Seahawks
- The Vikings have been deploying a lot of three safety looks this season. With linebacker Blake Cashman playing a majority of the LB snaps, Metellus has played a majority of the time in the box (65%). He has almost been a de facto LB2 for Minnesota this year, and his tackle numbers bear that out. Metellus has 88 tackles, four pass break-ups, two interceptions, and a forced fumble.
- Metellus has had seven or more tackles in his last four games with two double-digit tackle performances. He has also seen a high number of slot snaps (28.1%). Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has been peppering slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with targets lately. He has 52 targets in the last six games.
- Brandon Jones, S Broncos at Chargers
- Jones is coming off of a monster game against the Colts in Week 15. He had nine tackles, eight solo, three pass break-ups, and an interception. Jones is splitting his time in the box (25.4%) and deep safety (63.4%) almost evenly with backend mate P.J. Locke (25% in the box, 64.5% at deep safety).
- The last time Denver faced the Chargers, Jones had a season-high 12 tackles, 11 solo stops, with a pass defended. If he hasn’t been in your lineups recently, it’s time to get him in there.
Fades
- Tre’Von Moehrig, S Raiders at Jaguars
- After a few down weeks, Moehrig returned to high-end IDP production in Week 14. He had eight tackles, a half-sack, a fumble recovery, and three pass break-ups against the Buccaneers. But then right when IDP fantasy managers felt safe playing Moehrig again, he promptly fell on his face again in Week 15 with two total tackles.
- His usage and playing time have varied lately. In Week 15, he saw a bigger slot snap percentage (37.9%) than box snap percentage (29.3%) and also played some deep safety (22.4%). When he has scored well in fantasy, he typically sees more than a 50% snap share in the box. With so much on the line, I just can’t trust him or the Raiders this week.
- Marlon Humphrey, CB Ravens vs Steelers
- Humphrey is seeing a lot of work as the Ravens’ top slot cornerback this season. He is seeing most of his snaps (75%) in the slot. This is usually a solid performing position in IDP, especially in start CB leagues, but a few things are working against him this week. The Steelers ran only 43 plays on offense in Week 15 against the Eagles, which tied for the single lowest output of any offense this season. They almost always play it close to the vest against the Ravens in what is usually a low-scoring affair.
- Pittsburgh also ranks in the bottom six of the league in 11-personnel, which would take Humphrey off the field quite a bit with there not being a slot receiver in the game to cover. Humphrey had an interception the last time these two played, but I’m not counting on a pick to save his fantasy day. I’m looking elsewhere.
- CJ Gardner-Johnson, S Eagles vs Commanders
- IDP managers haven’t gotten much from Gardner-Johnson in the last eight games. If you take out his Week 14 performance against the Panthers, where he had six tackles, two passes defended, and an interception, the numbers are really bad. Gardner-Johnson is averaging just 6.6 points per game according to Fantasy Pros scoring in the other seven games.
- He is playing a lot of deep safety this season (72%). In the matchup earlier this season with the Commanders, Gardner-Johnson had three tackles and one pass break-up. I would look elsewhere during this important week.
