We are back to bye week hell in Week 14 with six teams taking the week off: Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders.
This is not an ideal time to have so many teams not playing with fantasy football playoff berths on the line. We have a huge week ahead of us and some tough decisions have to be made.
Make sure to check out our Fantasy In Frames IDP waiver-wire article every week to fill in your open roster spots. Below are my educated guesses of players to Play and others to Fade for Week 14 of the NFL season.
As always I am going to give you some players I think could have a better week than expected or might have a worse game than predicted.
Here we go!
Defensive Linemen:
Plays
- Leonard Williams, DL Seahawks at Cardinals
- Williams is on an absolute two-game tear. He is the DL1 the past two weeks with 25.8 and 33.3 points in Weeks 12 and 13. Williams has a combined 10 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two passes defended, and a 90-yard interception returned for a touchdown.
- With his recent success, Williams has jumped into the top 20 in scoring on the season for defensive lineman according to Fantasy Pros scoring. Will it continue? Who knows, but you have to play the hot hand while you can.
- Cameron Heyward, DL Steelers vs Browns
- The old man of the Steelers defense, the 35-year-old Captain has bounced back nicely from an injury riddled 2023 season. He had five tackles and a sack last week against the Bengals. The week before he had six tackles with two passes defended against the Browns, who the Steelers face again this week. Heyward has 50 tackles and six sacks on the season. He also has eight passes batted down in the past six games.
- Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston has thrown the ball 40 or more times in four of the last five games. The only game he didn’t surpass that number was against the Steelers in a game that was played in blizzard like conditions. Winston still threw the ball 27 times in that game. I expect that to increase in Week 14, thus bringing even more pass rush opportunities to the Steelers defense.
- Jalen Carter, DL Eagles vs Panthers
- The second-year defensive tackle out of Georgia has really started to come on. According to PFF, he is ninth in the league in pass rush grade, he is tied for 14th in total pressures, and he is fourth in batted passes. He has 4.5 sacks in 12 games this season after recording six in 16 games in his rookie season.
- Carter is playing nearly 100% of snaps, which is impressive for an interior lineman. He has an impressive 18.2% win rate and pressure rate. The Panthers are expected to have a negative game script, most likely playing from behind in this game, which should give Carter some nice pass rush opportunities. This young guy is only getting better and better each week.
Fades
- Haason Reddick, DE Jets at Dolphins
- Reddick has been mentioned here before. I said to give him time to see if he could get it going this season after sitting out the first seven games of the year. Well, we have given him time, and it hasn’t gotten any better. In five games this season, Reddick has six total tackles and a half a sack.
- His snap share increased to 67% in Week 13 following the bye week. Previously he was playing 42%, so that is a small victory. Even with the snap increase, I still can’t trust Reddick at this point in the season. He will remain on my bench.
- Byron Young, DE Rams vs Bills
- After four straight games with a sack, Young has been shut out the past two weeks. Without the sacks, he has only five tackles in the past two games.
- This is a poor matchup against the Bills. Quarterback Josh Allen who hasn’t been sacked the past two weeks and has only been sacked multiple times in a game four times this season.
- Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE Giants vs Saints
- Since coming back from injury in Week 12, Thibodeaux has just three total tackles for the Giants. He had a pass rush grade of 90.3 per PFF in Week 13 against the Cowboys, but don’t be fooled by that number. He was facing a struggling rookie in Tyler Guyton, who was injured and replaced by Chuma Edoga midway through the game. Edoga’s pass blocking grade was just 31.2 per PFF and Thibodeaux still couldn’t get home to record a sack.
- Saints quarterback Derek Carr has only been sacked seven times in nine games this season. He hasn’t been sacked more than once in a game this year and has only been sacked one time in the past three games.
Linebackers:
Plays
- DeMarvion Overshown, LB Cowboys vs Bengals
- Overshown is coming off a spectacular performance on Thanksgiving Day against the Giants. He filled the stat sheet with nine tackles, a pass defended, a fumble recovery, and an interception returned for a touchdown. His 27-point fantasy performance was good for an LB2 finish and third overall for the week.
- Overshown is currently LB10 in Fantasy Pros scoring averaging 13.6 points per game. Now he gets a Bengals team who has given up good fantasy numbers to opposing defenders.
- Kaden Ellis, LB Falcons at Vikings
- Ellis has played well and had a strong overall season. He is LB22 this year with 148.6 points for an average of 12.4 points per game. He had nine or more tackles in the past four games before only getting five tackles in Week 13 against the Chargers. The Falcons defense only saw 46 defensive snaps against LA, which correlates with the slight drop in production. He did add a sack against the Chargers to finish with double-digit fantasy points for the fifth-straight game.
- This week Ellis has a great matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota is in the top three in tackles allowed to opposing linebackers this season. Ellis is also averaging nine pass rush snaps per game. The Vikings have allowed eight sacks to blitzing off-ball linebackers this season and four in the last three weeks.
- Germaine Pratt, LB Bengals at Cowboys
- Pratt has been one of the most underrated linebackers in fantasy football this season. He is currently LB13 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 161.3 points for an average of 13.4 points per game.
- Without an injured Logan Wilson in Week 13, Pratt had 13 tackles against the Steelers. He has scored nine fantasy points or more in 11 of 12 games this season. The consistency has been outstanding.
Fades
- Divine Deablo, LB Raiders at Buccaneers
- The struggle continues for Deablo. He has only scored double-digit fantasy points in one game this season and that was Week 6 against Pittsburgh when he recorded his only sack of the year. Since that game, Deablo only has one game where he has recorded more than five tackles in a game.
- He is averaging just 6.8 points per game this season according to Fantasy Pros scoring. His tackle efficiency is a big reason why. He is only tackling at a rate of 5.9% on 70% of snaps.
- Matt Milano, LB Bills at Rams
- Milano returned from the injured reserve in Week 13 to play his first game of the season. He took over one of the starting linebacker spots, sending Dorian Williams to the bench. Milano is still working his way back to being a full go. Terrel Bernard played 100% of snaps at linebacker, while Milano saw 77% of snaps.
- Milano is a nice player to grab off of waivers if he is available, but I wouldn’t run to put him in lineups just yet. Milano had just five tackles, three solo, in his return. I’m giving him a couple weeks to see how he progresses before I’m thinking about starting him.
- Drue Tranquill, LB Chiefs vs Chargers
- Tranquill is the LB2 for the Chiefs, but is only seeing around a 75% snap share. He currently has a tackle rate under 10%. He has put up ok tackle numbers, but he has consistently had more assisted tackles than solo tackles. He has only had more than three solo tackles in a game twice this season.
- With all the byes this week, Tranquill could be a start in a desperate situation. The Chiefs have had one of the toughest fantasy schedules for linebackers this season, helping to answer why Tranquill is LB52 in Fantasy Pros scoring this season. But relief could be on the way. Kansas City has the fifth-best tackle schedule for linebackers in the fantasy playoffs.
Defensive Backs:
Plays
- Byron Murphy, CB Vikings vs Falcons
- Murphy has been on a roll this season and even more so lately. He has five interceptions this season with four coming in the past six games to give him four top 10 DB finishes over that span. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the league with 13 interceptions in 12 games, and just threw four picks last week against the Chargers.
- Murphy is currently DB10 overall this season in Fantasy Pros scoring, averaging 11.4 points per game. This may be the best matchup of the year for him and the Vikings secondary. Atlanta is allowing 16.4 tackles to cornerbacks per game this season. That’s the highest in the league. Murphy has been a solid tackle contributor all year with four or more tackles in all but two games this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a season-high in tackles and add another interception to his stats.
- Ugo Amadi, CB Saints at Giants
- The Saints secondary has scored a lot of points this season. The last three weeks Amadi has been a tackle machine since moving into the primary slot cornerback role. He has nine, eight, and nine tackles the past three weeks.
- Amadi saw a 95% snap share in Week 13 with 80% of those snaps coming in the slot. The Giants play a high rate of 11-personnel, which means he should see a lot of snaps. He faced eight targets in Week 13 and should see a healthy amount this week going against the Giants WR2 in slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson.
- Xavier Woods, S Panthers at Eagles
- Woods is producing the last three weeks for the Panthers. He is averaging almost eight tackles a game, one pass defended with two total interceptions over his past three games. Woods has been a top 10 DB over that time span.
- Woods is playing all over the place. He is seeing 55% of snaps at deep safety, 31% in the box, and 12% in the slot. With the way the Eagles are running the ball this season, I would expect Woods to have to help more in the box this week.
Fades
- Rayshawn Jenkins, S Seahawks at Cardinals
- After coming back from injured reserve, Jenkins played 50% of snaps in his first game back. Instead of returning to regular snaps in his second game back, his snap share actually decreased to 40%.
- Coby Bryant has gotten 100% of snaps the past two weeks along with Julian Love, meaning Jenkins is playing the third safety spot for now. Don’t be fooled by league projections for Jenkins, he is now a part-time player.
- Jordan Poyer, S Dolphins vs Jets
- Poyer had nine tackles against a run-heavy Packers team in Week 13, but only two of those were solo stops. He had seven solo tackles in Week 12 for his highest-scoring output of the season with 12 fantasy points.
- While those numbers might make you think about starting Poyer, just remember that he is just DB91 overall in Fantasy Pros scoring this season. He has consistently had more assists than solo tackles in games this season, and only has three double-digit scoring performances in 11 games. He has also started to play more snaps at deep safety (55.6%) than box safety (24.1%) with Jevon Holland taking more box and slot snaps.
- Damar Hamlin, S Bills at Rams
- Hamlin is a great story and has his best season as a professional this year. But after being a must start for a good part of the season, Hamlin’s production has fallen off. He is averaging just over four tackles a game the past three weeks.
- Hamlin is seeing a majority of his snaps at deep safety (56.3%) and getting just a little work in the box (29.2%). With the Rams’ Matthew Stafford’s ability to push the ball down the field to wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I would expect to see Hamlin playing deep center field for Buffalo most of the day.
