It’s Thanksgiving time! Three Thursday games are scheduled for Turkey Day, and we get a reprieve from all the bye weeks as every NFL team is scheduled to play in Week 13.
This is the last chance for most teams to make that final push for the playoffs. We have a huge week ahead of us.
Make sure to check out our Fantasy In Frames IDP waiver-wire article every week to fill in your open roster spots.
Below are my educated guesses of players to Play and others to Fade for Week 13 of the NFL season. As we continue to get more data, we get a better idea of who to lean on throughout the season.
As always I am going to give you some players I think could have a better week than expected or might have a worse game than predicted.
Here we go!
Defensive Linemen:
Plays
- Nik Bonitto, DE Broncos vs Browns
- Bonitto is on an incredible tear this season. He has a sack in nine of 12 games played. He has ten sacks in the last 10 games. While he isn’t usually giving you much else, you don’t need much else if he is going to get home every week.
- Bonitto played 67.9% of snaps, the second most snaps he has seen in a game this season. He also had a 16.1% win rate. He has had back-to-back top five finishes in Fantasy Pros scoring. Eventually there has to be some regression, but right now you might as well stick with the hot hand.
- Calijah Kancey, DT Buccaneers at Panthers
- Since missing the first five games of the season, Kancey has come back and scored double-digit points in Fantasy Pros scoring in four of six games.
- Kancey has a 14.3% win rate and a 23.8% pressure rate from the interior. He has five sacks since he returned from injury. Kancey is quickly becoming one of the best young defensive tackles in the league.
- Laiatu Latu, DE Colts at Patriots
- The rookie out of UCLA got off to a slow start after being the first defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. But he has worked his way into more playing time and now has sacks in back-to-back games. Latu had a PFF pass rush grade of 90.8 and out-snapped Kwity Paye. He also had a 14.8% win rate and a 18.5% pressure rate, which both led the Colts.
- Latu now faces a struggling Patriots offensive line that has been the second worst in the league in pass-block grades this season. Latu should be facing offensive tackle Demontrey Jacobs, who has a 42.8 PFF pass block grade, and has allowed seven sacks this season.
Fades
- Nnamdi Madubuike, DE Ravens vs Eagles
- Since Madubuike had three sacks against the Bengals in Week 10, he has gone silent. He has six total tackles in the past two games with just one assisted tackle last week against the Chargers despite playing his second-highest snap percentage of the season (84%).
- Now he gets the Eagles’ stellar offensive line which is clearing the way for the league’s leading rusher in Saquan Barkley. I don’t want any part of Madubuike this week.
- Dante Fowler, DE Commanders vs Titans
- While this would seem like a good matchup for Fowler, he has gone cold the last two weeks after an unbelievable tear. Fowler went four out of five games where he was a top five IDP lineman, averaging 17.4 points per game in Fantasy Pros scoring in that time span with seven sacks.
- With defensive players you have to ride the highs and the lows. The last two weeks, Fowler has three combined points. Not what you want see as the playoffs are approaching.
- Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE Giants at Cowboys
- It has been since Week 5 that we have seen Thibodeaux on the field for the Giants. In his return he had just two tackles, one solo. He did record a 13.6% win rate, which is encouraging.
- He was originally getting out snapped by Azeez Ojulari before Ojulari went out with a toe injury. That could mean more than the 63% snap share he saw in Week 12 going forward, but I’m giving him some more time before I plug him back into my lineups.
Linebackers:
Plays
- Ernest Jones, LB Seahawks at Jets
- Jones started the season with the Rams and then was traded to the Titans only to be traded again to the Seahawks. I’m not quite sure how a young quality linebacker can be traded twice in the same season, but it happened. Since landing in Seattle, Jones has been a tackling machine. He has 47 tackles in four games for the Seahawks.
- Despite playing for three different teams this season, Jones has less than nine tackles in only three games this season. I had questions about him early on, but Jones is back to a top 10 LB and a must play every week.
- Tyrice Knight, LB Seahawks at Jets
- The Seahawks have been juggling linebackers all season, making multiple trades. Now it looks like they have settled on their tandem of the future. With Jones taking 100% of snaps, Knight, a rookie out of UTEP, has stepped in as the Robin to Jones’ Batman. Knight saw an 81% snap share last week.
- Since the bye in Week 10, Knight has played 81% of snaps and has collected 19 tackles and a sack with a 19.1% tackle efficiency rate. If he happens to be on your waiver wire, hurry up and pick him up.
- Tyrel Dodson, LB Dolphins at Packers
- Another linebacker that has been on the move this season, Dodson originally was playing nearly 100% of snaps for the Seahawks to start the season after coming over from Buffalo. He played the first nine games of the season for Seattle, averaging 12.4 points in Fantasy Pros scoring before he was cut during the bye week.
- The Dolphins snagged Dodson up. After not playing in his first game in uniform, Dodson came in for an injured Anthony Walker in Week 12, playing a 70% snap share and recording five tackles, one interception and a pass defensed for 11.8 points. If Walker’s hamstring injury lingers, Dodson could be in for a exaggerated role moving forward for the Dolphins.
Fades
- Jerome Baker, LB Titans at Commanders
- Baker started the season with the Seahawks, playing in five games before getting traded prior to Week 8. Baker didn’t play a down his first three weeks in Tennessee, but finally got his chance in Week 11. He was able to record eight tackles, four solo, while playing 84% of snaps in his first outing with the Titans.
- Baker looked to be in for a full-time role with Jack Gibbens out for the season. He played 100% of snaps in Week 12, but he only recorded three tackles. Baker’s tackle efficiency has been awful this year as evidence by his 5.4% tackle rate. While Baker should see a lot of snaps moving forward, I’m not sure he can be counted on for consistent production.
- Mack Wilson, LB Cardinals at Vikings
- While Wilson is consistently seeing more than an 80% snap share, his production is leaving something to be desired. Since Week 7, Wilson has averaged just 3.5 points per game, according to Fantasy Pros scoring.
- Wilson had some nice fantasy performances early in the season, but his tackle rate of just 5.5% is killing his value. With a full complement of players, Wilson should be a player you have to start this week.
- Trevin Wallace, LB Panthers vs Buccaneers
- We have seen some bright spots from the rookie this season. Wallace had back-to-back top 10 IDP performances in Weeks 5 and 6, but he has fallen off since then with four straight games with more assisted tackles than solo tackles.
- The return of Josie Jewell has slowed down his production. Jewell is taking 100% of snaps, while Wallace has two straight weeks of less than 70% of snaps. While I like Wallace in dynasty formats, he is a tough play right now in redraft leagues.
Defensive Backs:
Plays
- Kevin Byard, S Bears at Lions
- Byard has been consistently good for the Bears this season. He is coming off a season-high 13 tackles, 11 solo, against the Vikings in Week 12. He has averaged 12 points per game in Fantasy Pros scoring this season, which is good enough for DB5 designation this season.
- With Jaquan Brisker on injured reserve with a concussion, Byard has had the opportunity to play box safety and deep safety. Against Minnesota he saw around 50% of snaps in the box or slot with the other half at deep safety. He should continue to see good deployment moving forward with Brisker out.
- Harrison Smith, S Vikings vs Cardinals
- Smith continues to be deployed all over the field by the Vikings getting 42% of snaps at deep safety, 21% in the box, 17% in the slot, 19% on the defensive line, and being blitzed 8% of the time. In Week 12, Smith had his best performance of the season with 11 tackles, nine solo stops, in an overtime win against the Bears.
- At 35 years old, Smith continues to fight father time, and produce for the Vikings. He is averaging 10.2 points per game, good for DB24 this season.
- Tyler Nubin, S Giants at Cowboys
- The rookie from Minnesota has been one of the few bright spots for the Giants this season. He is seeing 50% of his snaps in the box and is being used in a variety of ways. Nubin led the Giants with 12 tackles in Week 12, following up the 12 tackles he had in Week 10.
- Nubin is currently DB23 in Fantasy Pros scoring on the season, but with his current production, he has to be considered a possible top 12 DB for the rest of the season.
Fades
- Minkah Fitzpatrick, S Steelers at Bengals
- Fitzpatrick hasn’t been the destructive force we are used to in Pittsburgh. The Steelers safety has no splash plays for fantasy purposes and continues to play a majority of his snaps at deep safety.
- While fellow safety Deshon Elliott is currently ranked in the top 10 of DB scoring this season, Fitzpatrick is DB64 with only two games of double-digit points this season. He is averaging just 7.9 points per game in Fantasy Pros scoring. It’s hard to sit a player of his caliber, but there is a very good chance that he is being outscored by all the other DBs on your roster.
- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Eagles at Ravens
- The rookie is having a fantastic season for the Eagles, but being a shutdown corner is not ideal in IDP leagues. Mitchell is seeing 94% of his snaps out wide. Opposing quarterbacks are starting to challenge Mitchell less and less as the season progresses.
- Mitchell had five tackles and a pass defended against the Rams in Week 12, but that’s the most action he’s seen since Week 4 against the Buccaneers when he had six tackles and a pass defended.
- Julian Blackmon, S Colts at Patriots
- The Colts have one of the most productive defenses for IDP purposes. The Colts have multiple players in the top 10 in overall IDP scoring, but the issue for Blackmon is that he isn’t one of them. Now that Nick Cross has taken over the box safety role full time, Blackmon is playing deep safety nearly 80% of the time.
- Blackmon is playing 100% of snaps, but everyone in front of him are eating up all the tackles. He has become a tough player to count on from week-to-week, while Cross is currently the overall DB1 in Fantasy Pros scoring this season.
