Week 12 of the NFL season is here, and we have six teams with bye weeks: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets.
That is a brutal amount of teams on byes with the fantasy football playoffs either starting this week or within the next two weeks in most leagues. It’s go time!
Make sure to check out our Fantasy In Frames IDP waiver-wire article every week to fill in your open roster spots.
Below are my educated guesses of players to Play and others to Fade for Week 12 of the NFL season. As we continue to get more data, we get a better idea of who to lean on throughout the season.
As always I am going to give you some players I think could have a better week than expected or might have a worse game than predicted.
Here we go!
Defensive Linemen:
Plays
- Chris Jones, DT Chiefs at Panthers
- This is a really nice matchup for Jones, who hasn’t had a sack since Week 4. But in Week 12 he goes against Robert Hunt, who has allowed three sacks and three QB hits from the center position. While Jones only has three sacks this season, he has had just two games where he had less than three QB pressures.
- Jones played 84.9% of snaps with a 17.1% win rate and pressure rate. He should be a must start in Defensive Tackle leagues, but is also worth playing in Defensive Line leagues this week as everything is pointing towards him being due for a breakout game.
- Andrew Van Ginkel, Edge Vikings at Bears
- Van Ginkel is finally getting a full time workload in Minnesota after spending most of his career as a rotational player. He is taking full advantage of the opportunity. Van Ginkel is currently second overall in Fantasy Pros scoring this season with 156.8 points in 10 games. He had a huge game against the Titans in Week 11 with eight tackles, seven solo, and two sacks for 26.8 points. He has 46 tackles, eight sacks, three passes defended, two interceptions, a forced fumble, and two defensive touchdowns this season.
- Van Ginkel has three sacks in the past two games. The Bears have struggled to keep quarterback Caleb Williams upright all season. With Williams and the Bears’ recent struggles, currently on a four-game losing streak, this should be another spot that Van Ginkel can take advantage of and have a blow up game.
- Chop Robinson, DE Miami vs Patriots
- The rookie out of Penn State had sacks in back-to-back games before getting blanked last week. But despite not registering a sack, Robinson is showing some elite analytics. Despite only playing 43.1% of snaps in Week 11 against the Raiders, Robinson had a 35% win rate and a 26% pressure rate, which are absolutely elite numbers for an edge rusher. It is always scary to put a player into the lineup with that low of a snap share, but I think that rate goes back up this week.
- Robinson is a solid streaming option this week. The Patriots offensive line has been second worst in the league in pass-block grades this season. Robinson will face offensive tackle Demontrey Jacobs, who has a 42.8 PFF pass block grade, and has allowed six sacks and four QB hits this season. I think Robinson is worth the risk this week.
Fades
- Tyree Wilson, DE Raiders vs Broncos
- Wilson got a sack last week in a blow out of the Falcons. But he hasn’t been consistent this year. In nine games this season, Wilson has just 12 tackles and two sacks.
- The Broncos offensive line has been solid. They have a pass-block grade of 81.3 per PFF, which ranks near the top of the league. Expecting Wilson to get home two weeks in a row, seems like a long shot at best.
- Lukas Van Ness, DE Packers vs 49ers
- With Preston Smith getting traded away, it looked like there would be an opening for more time on the outside of the line to pass rush. Any hope that Van Ness would take advantage has waned when his snap share was just 34.7%. Van Ness instead got passed up on the depth chart by Kingsley Enagbare.
- Van Ness has only three pressures in the past six games, and seven total pressures on the season. He has just one sack and 19 tackles in 10 games. Van Ness is still young and is probably a hold in dynasty leagues, but he is definitely droppable in redraft leagues. There is just no way to play him with confidence this season.
- Christian Barmore, DT Patriots at Dolphins
- Barmore is a wild story this season. He was on the reserve/non-football injury list all season after being diagnosed with life threatening blood clots. It wasn’t clear whether or not Barmore would play this season or ever again, frankly. So it was a nice surprise when Barmore was activated and played in Week 11 against the Rams. He finished with three solo tackles.
- While it was a nice comeback game for Barmore, he is still working his way fully back. He only saw a 40.4% snap share. Barmore is worth stashing in DT start leagues, but he isn’t a guy you want to put in your lineup just yet.
Linebackers:
Plays
- Daiyan Henley, LB Chargers vs Ravens
- Henley has been hot lately. He has double-digit tackles in four straight games. Henley has really come to play in his second season. After posting just 11 tackles in 15 games as a reserve last season, Henley now has 89 tackles, one sack, and five passes defended in 10 games this season.
- The Ravens haven’t been a great matchup for opposing LBs, but they aren’t the worst. I’m riding the hot streak and starting Henley even though it is a less than stellar matchup.
- Nakobe Dean, LB Eagles vs Rams
- Dean is finally living up to the potential IDP managers were hoping for after coming out of Georgia and leading one of the best college defenses we have ever seen. Dean’s injury history was looking to derail his young career. After playing sparingly as a rookie, Dean played just five games last season because of various injuries.
- It seems as if Dean has solidified himself in the Eagles’ defense this season. He has started all 10 games, while compiling 76 tackles with two sacks, four passes defended, and one interception. Dean had 10 tackles with eight solo stops against the Commanders in Week 11.
- Jack Campbell, LB Lions at Colts
- With Alex Anzalone out for six-to-eight weeks with a broken forearm, a major spot has opened up for the Lions on their defense. A former first-round pick, Campbell should be the first man up with a chance to replace Anzalone.
- Campbell had nine tackles and a half a sack against the Jaguars in Week 11 with a 93.8% snap share. He has recorded seven tackles or more in eight of 10 games this season. We will see if his fantasy performances get an uptick in production with even more opportunity to shine.
Fades
- Nick Bolton, LB Chiefs vs Panthers
- This one hurts me to write because Bolton is one of my favorite players to ever come out of my alma mater Mizzou, but it has not been a great season for him. He was drafted by many fantasy owners to be their LB1, but he hasn’t had a lot of great opportunities this season. Bolton is currently LB26 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 115.7 points, averaging 11.6 points per game.
- Bolton has had one of the worst schedules this season for any linebacker. He hasn’t faced many offenses that give up tackles to opposing LBs. He hasn’t faced one team ranked in the top 10 for linebacker tackles, and has only faced one team ranked inside the top 15. The Panthers rank 28th in tackles given up to opposing LBs this season. So it should be a struggle again for Bolton to put up a good fantasy day. With all the bye weeks, Bolton is still probably starting in your lineup, but you might want to temper expectations.
- Ivan Pace, LB Vikings vs Bears
- With Blake Cashman making his return to the lineup and getting a 100% snap share, Pace’s usage got destroyed. Pace’s snap share dipped to 64.4% resulting in just four assisted tackles.
- When Pace has gotten a 96% snap share or better, he is averaging 16 points per game in Fantasy Pros scoring. In games where he has played less than 70% of snaps his average drops to 10.5 points per game. Pace has put up some good numbers with low snap percentages this season, but it makes him a risky play.
- Bobby Okereke, LB Giants vs Buccaneers
- While you are most likely still starting Okereke if he is on your roster, you aren’t as happy about that thought as you were in past seasons. His tackle rate is way down this season. Okereke has more assisted tackles (38) than solo tackles (37) this season. He has averaged nearly 150 stops the past two seasons with over 90 of those tackles being solo stops. But Okereke is currently on pace for closer to 125 tackles with only half being solo stops.
- The Giants have been awful against the run this season. They have given up 11 rushes of 15 yards or more in the last four games. With starting quarterback Daniel Jones surprisingly getting cut from the team this week, Tommy DeVito will take over as QB1. DeVito hasn’t taken a snap this season after playing nine games as a rookie for an injured Jones. This game could get out of hand quickly. I’m not sure I want to be playing many Giants players this week.
Defensive Backs:
Plays
- Xavier McKinney, S Packers vs 49ers
- McKinney has been a takeaway machine this season. He has six interceptions to go along with seven passes defended. McKinney is coming off a season-high nine tackles against the Bears in Week 11 and now gets a 49ers team that is giving up the most tackles allowed to safeties in the league this season.
- McKinney is currently DB15 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 113.9 points. He is averaging 11.4 points per game. If that wasn’t enough to show that McKinney is a must start, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, then Brandon Allen or Joshua Dobbs would get the nod, which makes McKinney even more appealing.
- Kyle Dugger, S Patriots at Dolphins
- Dugger has had to deal with multiple injuries this season. He has only played seven games and is questionable this week with an ankle injury. If Dugger can go, he is a play for me this week. After missing the previous three games, Dugger came back in Week 11 and had his best performance of the season with 11 tackles, nine solo stops.
- The Dolphins are allowing the fourth most tackles to safeties this season. Dugger came back and saw a 100% snap share with 50% of his snaps coming in the box. A big week could be incoming for Dugger.
- Antoine Winfield, S Buccaneers at Giants
- After missing the first part of the season with an injury, Winfield has come back and played well the past five weeks. He has 41 tackles in that time span with a sack and two passes defensed.
- With Tommy DiVito taking over at QB for the Giants, this one could get interesting. I want to play every Buccaneers player I have in the secondary. Winfield is my top choice to have a monster game this week.
Fades
- Elijah Hicks, S Bears vs Vikings
- Hicks has just 29 tackles in 10 games this season. He left the Week 11 matchup with the Packers with an ankle injury. If he can’t go this week, Jonathan Owens would be his replacement.
- Regardless if it is Hicks or Owens in the lineup this is not a good matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota is giving up the least amount of tackles to safeties this season. I would be avoiding whoever gets the start for the Bears this week.
- Kamren Curl, S Rams vs Eagles
- Curl is back to 100% snap share after losing some snap share the past few weeks, but the role has changed. Since finishing as DB1 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 22 points against the Raiders in Week 7, Curl has averaged only 4.35 points per game in the four games since then. He is back to playing mostly deep safety (65.8%) most of the time, while Quentin Lake is playing 51.3% of his snaps in the slot and another 18.4% in the box. Lake
- Rookie Kamren Kinchens has been getting more playing time of late and has seen more than 50% snap share each of the past three weeks. Kinchens led all DBs in scoring in Week 11 with 23.5 points after scoring after finishing as DB1 with 23.5 points in Week 9 as well. Lake finished Week 11 with 11 tackles to lead the team. All this is pointing towards fading Curl at this point in the season.
- Amani Hooker, S Titans at Texans
- Hooker is playing 100% of snaps this season with 57.5% at deep safety and 31.5% coming in the box. Despite leading the Titans in box snaps, it hasn’t led to big tackle numbers. plays near the line but isn’t giving you a bunch.
- Hooker has been ok this season, but that’s about it. He is averaging just over four tackles per game. Hooker is currently DB26 in Fantasy Pros scoring, but that is mostly due to two big weeks where he totaled 11 tackles, three interceptions, and four passes defensed.
