Is Brandin Cooks worth the risk?
The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Houston Texans.
After winning the AFC South with a 10-6 record and defeating the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round, the Houston Texans were 24-0 up on the eventual Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, before succumbing to Patrick Mahomes’ magic. However, skip forward a few months and the Texans are now probably one of the teams with the most question marks as we approach the 2020 season. Bill O’Brien’s decision to trade away four-time pro bowler DeAndre Hopkins caused much derision amongst the fanbase and the wider NFL world, and it remains unclear just what the offense will look like this year and who will step up. Hopkins recorded over 100 catches during the regular 2019 season for the third time in his career, after being targeted 157 times – the fifth most targeted player in the league last season.
A few weeks after the Hopkins move, the Texans traded a second-round pick for Brandin Cooks plus a fourth-rounder from the LA Rams. Cooks had a down year blighted by injury worries, reaching just 583 yards across 42 receptions after multiple 1,000-yard seasons. So given the uncertainty, is Brandin Cooks worth the risk in drafts this season?
The positives
One of the biggest positives for Cooks as the 2020 season approaches is the chance available to flourish in an offense with a supremely talented quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The Texans have a total of 167 vacated targets from last year – one of the highest in the league. While there is no guarantee that Cooks will be the main beneficiary, the opportunity is clear. Many may point to Will Fuller as the possible go-to guy for Watson. But while his talent is undisputable, Fuller has struggled to stay healthy, never playing in all 16 regular-season games.
And it is easy to forget how good Cooks had been. Prior to last season, the 26-year-old had played in all 16 games each season except his rookie year and had become a consistent receiver on each of his three teams. Between 2015 and 2018 the former first-round pick received over 100 targets each season, resulting in over 1,000 yards and at least five touchdowns each year. In terms of fantasy production, Cooks has been a great option for a number of years. The receiver finished between 9th and 14th in half-PPR scoring between 2015 and 2018.
Lastly, it is worth remembering that Houston is likely to be forced to throw, given the defensive worries. Last season the team finished 26th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, after finishing 7th the year prior. While the team did address some defensive issues in the draft, many would expect them to still be in the bottom half defensively in 2020.
The negatives
Cooks comes into the 2020 season with rather serious injury concerns. In his six seasons in the NFL, he has had five documented concussions and there are worries that further such injuries could cut his career short. Although dismissed by Cooks himself, there were rumours he would retire last year after he was taken out of the game against the Bengals in London. And despite Bill O’Brien saying he feels “really good” about the health of Cooks, it is difficult for anyone drafting him to be fully confident the worries are behind him.
There are also risks in terms of fantasy production. After coming into last year with fairly high expectations, there are clear concerns over his 2019 output. Cooks recorded just 6.9 FPTS/G last season, the lowest of his career. His production following his injury in week 8 should cause concern, with the receiver only seeing a double-digit fantasy return once in the second half of the season. Cooks also comes into a fairly crowded wide-receiver room, with fellow free-agent signing Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and the aforementioned Will Fuller all vying for targets.
The alternatives
Cooks is currently being drafted at pick 81, the 34th wide receiver off the board according to Fantasy Football Calculator, undoubtedly his lowest ADP in recent years. Following Cooks, current ADP shows fellow Texan Will Fuller being taken a few picks later followed by the likes of Julian Edelman, Christian Kirk, and Mecole Hardman.
Answering the question
Looking at everything, Cooks appears to be a good value where he is currently being drafted, given his potential upside in the offense. If he can stay healthy and begin to build a rapport with Watson, there is a good chance he will provide WR2 numbers. Cooks is likely to be off many people’s draft boards given the legitimate concerns about his injuries and is one to watch during your draft in case he falls beyond ADP. And while there are clearly some very solid alternatives being taken around him, Cooks is arguably the most likely of the group to finish as a top-24 receiver.