After 13 streamer option, trade proposing, waiver wire trolling weeks, we have officially reached the fantasy football playoffs!!
It’s the time of year that you look for your fantasy heroes to be extra heroic, as well as the time where you take all of your accumulated knowledge over the last 13 weeks and effectively identify who might be the villainous poison that will sink your fantasy championship hopes. If you have come here looking for any advice (And you are a very smart person if have), the first thing I will say to you is just remember the words of the late great Dennis Green when he said, “they are who we thought they would be!!!” Players are generally not going to surprise you, teams will do, generally, what teams have done throughout the season. For the most part, matchups are going to run the same way they have and, on those occasions, where everything looked good and for some reason you didn’t get the desired outcome you expected, you just tip your cap and say that you did what you thought was right and for this one day it just didn’t go in your favor. You have had 13 weeks to study for this exam, its time to put your combined knowledge to the test and win you some Fantasy Football Championships!!
(As always, all scores discussed in this article use a ½ PPR scoring structure)
Heroes:
Fitz-Magic Has Taken His Talents to South Beach
For most of the season, the Miami Dolphins have been a train wreck; since the end of last season, they have traded away or released most every one of their higher end talents in a not so subtle attempt to tank the season and start again fresh with a boatload of high draft picks in 2020. But they still have to play the games and it’s that time of year when Ryan Fitzpatrick gets to start for a team and have games like he did in Week 13 where he just destroys another team’s hopes. This time it was the Philadelphia Eagles, who were coming in with hopes of catching the Dallas Cowboys for first in the NFC East. That was not meant to be as Fitzpatrick delivered his best performance of the season. Completing almost 70% of his passes, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns, while only turning the ball over once. His 27 fantasy points ranked him as QB3 this week behind only Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. With matchups against the Jets, Giants and Bengals coming up, Fitzpatrick has a chance to put up some lofty fantasy numbers for those who own him and are in their fantasy playoffs.
No Dis-Guice(ing) it, the Redskins Have a Running Back
After missing eight games due to a knee injury, the Redskins have been working Derrius Guice slowly back into the lineup in the first two games since he has been back. While that did not change much in Week 13, as he only had 10 rushes, what did show up was Guice’s explosiveness, as he rushed for a career high 129 yards and scored the first two rushing touchdowns of his young and injury-plagued career. Scoring nearly 27 fantasy points, Guice is definitely a flex option in most fantasy leagues and he will definitely see his work load increase over the next few games. However, you still have to keep an eye on him, as he was only playing in his fourth career NFL game having missed all of his rookie season with a torn ACL and only has played in four games this season due to knee issues as well. However, he runs hard and with that style he will most definitely see most of the carries for the Redskins inside the red zone.
There is Still Talent in Miami and his Name is Parker…Devante Parker
With the Miami Dolphins having such a rough season, it is only fair that when they do something good, they should get credit for it. As I previously talked about, Ryan Fitzpatrick put on a show at QB in Week 13, but he could only do that with the help of his receivers and in the last few weeks, no one has benefitted more than WR Devante Parker. In Week 11, Parker blistered a very good Buffalo Bills defense for 135 yards on seven catches and 17 fantasy points, following that up in Week 12 with another six catches for 91 yards and 12 fantasy points. But in Week 13 against the Eagles, Parker had his best game of the season, hauling in seven passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns. His 31.4 fantasy points made him the top scorer among Wide Receivers and #2 overall. He has now been targeted 10 times or more in five of the Dolphins last seven games, so look for Parker to continue his hot streak with three very favorable matchups coming up.
The Buc Defense has been Revv’in with Devin
Devin White is having a very good rookie season, while he has missed four games with knee issues, when he has been on the field, he has proven that he can be a difference maker. Week 13 against the Jacksonville Jaguars was probably the best game he has played all season. Along with his seven tackles, he also had an interception, as well as picking up and returned a fumble 14 yards for a touchdown. His 27 fantasy points was his highest output of the season. Over his last five games he is averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game and ranks fifth in the NFL in average fantasy points per game on the season. As the season has gone on, his fantasy output is markedly increasing, and it is starting to look like he is becoming an IDP must in every lineup, at least if you want a player that will produce at a consistently higher fantasy output.
Honorable Heroes
Jared Goff (QB) – Los Angeles Rams – 32/43 424 yards, 2 TDs, 25 Fantasy Points
James White (RB) – New England Patriots – 14 carries 79 yards, 8 receptions 98 yards, 2 TDs, 33.7 Fantasy Points
Rashaad Penny (RB) – Seattle Seahawks – 15 carries 74 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions 33 yards, 1 TD, 24.7 Fantasy Points
Robert Woods (WR) – Los Angeles Rams – 19 targets, 13 receptions, 172 yards, 23.7 Fantasy Points
Mike Gesicki (TE) – Miami Dolphins – 7 targets, 5 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD, 16.4 Fantasy Points
Roquan Smith (LB) – Chicago Bears – 15 tackles, 2 sacks, 26.8 Fantasy Points
Villains
The Win was Never in Doubt, but Putting Up Offensive Numbers was Hardly a Brees
There was a time when the idea of having Drew Brees on your bench in fantasy football was something that was not even remotely thought of. Prior to last season, in 12 seasons with the New Orleans Saints, Brees averaged 4,841 yards and 34 touchdowns per season. He was as much of a guaranteed fantasy stud as you will ever find. However, like ever player, as you get older, you start to slow down and your numbers are not as prolific. That is not to say that Brees has not put up some strong fantasy performances; as an example, in Week 12 against Carolina, Brees scored 22 fantasy points, throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns. So, he is able to still put up numbers when he has to. However, week 13 was not one of those games. While the Saints beat the Falcons pretty handily, Brees would only throw for 184 yards and one touchdown, his lowest output this season in a non-injury shortened game. His 11.3 points was also his weakest performance and it does not get easier this week with the San Francisco 49’ers and their top ranked passing defense coming to New Orleans.
The Raiders Carr is Leaking Oil
It is not a well-guarded secret that Derek Carr could potentially be playing his final games as the Raiders starting QB. Coach Jon Gruden has never seemed too enamored with Carr and his performance this season probably has not really done much to change Gruden’s mind. Through 12 games this season, Fantasy Data has ranked Carr as QB19 and his game in Week 13 against the Chiefs gives a good understanding of why he is ranked that low. He threw for 222 yards and only one touchdown and two interceptions for a miniscule 9.6 fantasy points. The sad part is that it is actually an improvement from the previous week when he helped to make the Jets defense look like a Hall of Fame group, throwing for just 127 yards and one interception for all of 4.2 fantasy points. Tennessee is a tough matchup this week so even if you were crazy enough to have Carr in your lineup, it’s time to get him out and probably get him off your roster for a better streaming option.
Chubb Comes Up Rather Thin Against the Steelers
Nick Chubb is a really good running back, in fact this season he is the seventh highest scoring fantasy running back in the NFL. However, apparently when it comes to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers, he seems to have a problem putting up top level fantasy scoring numbers. In the four games he has played against Pittsburgh in his career, Chubb has combined for just over 28 total points or nine points less than his week four performance against the Baltimore Ravens. This also underscores a point that has been said a lot as it pertains to fantasy football and it bears repeating, points are driven by combinations of statistics; yards gained are important, but finding a way to get in the end zone is also vitally important, combining a solid rushing game with some activity in the passing game will also help your point output. Unfortunately, in Week 13, Chubb did not do any of that. 16 carries for 58 yards and 8.4 fantasy points just will not get the job done.
The Tight End Did Very Kittle Against the Ravens
George Kittle has moved into the elite class of tight ends, both from an actual football perspective and the fantasy football perspective. In a position that is almost totally devoid of any kind of depth, a player like Kittle stands out as that much more valuable because of how consistently good he has been over the last two seasons. Therefore, when he puts up a game like he did against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13, not only are you surprised by it, but you have to wonder what went wrong. Coming off his best performance of the year in Week 12 against the Green Bay Packers, where he scored 22 fantasy points on the strength of six receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown, Kittle would then turn in his worst performance of the year last week. Targeted only four times, he caught two passes for 17 yards and a miniscule 2.4 fantasy points. With the Saints up next, I am not worried that Kittle will get himself back on track and at worst, match his season total of 14 points a game against a middle of the road Saints pass defense in the Superdome.
Dishonorable Villains
Jameis Winston (QB) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 21/33 268 yards, 1 fumble, 10.7 Fantasy Points
Mark Ingram (RB) – Baltimore Ravens – 16 carries 59 yards, 7.2 Fantasy Points
Michael Thomas (WR) – New Orleans Saints – 8 targets, 6 receptions 48 yards, 7.8 Fantasy Points
Tyreek Hill (WR) – Kansas City Chiefs – 8 targets, 5 receptions 55 yards, 7.6 Fantasy Points
Hunter Henry (TE) – Los Angeles Chargers – 3 targets, 2 receptions 10 yards, 2 Fantasy Points
