It’s Day 5 of our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES and we are starting our coverage of the NFC North. Today, we head to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field and are talking about the Green Bay Packers! This morning we’re talking offense and later today we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook, so stay tuned!
Draft night in 2021 brought on some concern for Packers fans as it seemed like Quarterback and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers wanted out of Green Bay. As of this writing, Rodgers remains on the team and the Packers are looking to try and be Super Bowl-bound after falling to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game last year. With Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Robert Tonyan being their main pieces, the Packers have their work cut out for them.
Who are the players from the Packers offense that can help you win a fantasy championship in 2021?
Find out below in our 2021 Packers 4-EYED Offensive Team Preview!
Quarterback(s?)
Aaron Rodgers
The MVP has expressed displeasure with his situation in Green Bay so make sure to keep tabs on if Rodgers is still rocking the Yellow and Gold or if he has a new home. My guess is that he will still be in Green Bay this season and so that’s how I am operating for his fantasy value. Rodgers won MVP for a reason. He had the seventh-most passing yards, led the league with 48 passing touchdowns, and threw only five interceptions. For fantasy purposes with the new wave of mobile quarterbacks, that was one area where Rodgers wasn’t his best. In 2020, Rodgers had his second-fewest rushing yards since 2014. While this isn’t going to (and shouldn’t) keep you from drafting him, it was about the only nick in the armor I could find for him.
Jordan Love
IF, and that is literally a big if, Rodgers does happen to get traded, depending on what the Packers get back, Love could be the one in line to start. Since they spent first-round capital on him in 2020, I assume the Packers would want more draft capital and maybe defensive help than a quarterback replacement for Rodgers in the deal. Love’s only value is if Rodgers is out of town.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones
Speaking of being out of town, Jamaal Williams is now a Detroit Lion and while AJ Dillion is the QUADfather, Aaron Jones should finally be free in this backfield. Jones finished as the RB5 and I think he is the only player I truly feel doesn’t automatically get dropped if Rodgers isn’t in town. For running backs with at least 190 attempts, Jones ranked second in 2020 with 5.5 yards per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and third in breakaway percentage which tracks the percentage of runs that went at least 15 yards. Jones had the third most targets for running backs with at least 190 rushing attempts with 61 and I think he may be in line for more with Williams gone.
AJ Dillon
Taking social media by storm and starting the #QUADGATE movement, AJ Dillon should be the Packers back up running back this upcoming season. Dillon only had 55 rushing attempts last season, but he had 286 yards and two touchdowns on those attempts. Jamaal Willams ran the ball 138 times so there should be some work for Dillon. He did have 5.2 yards per attempt last year, so if he gets the majority of the snaps that Williams got, he could be a desperate flex play. When it comes to your drafts though, Dillon to me is a late-round flier that you just hope for the best with.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams
No groundbreaking news here, Adams is just really, really good. Your WR1 in fantasy was graded by PFF to be the best receiver in the NFL last year, and Adams had 115 receptions, one drop, 1,374 yards, and a league-leading 18 receiving touchdowns. And, he only played in 14 games. If Rodgers is the quarterback, expect Adams to turn in another great performance. If it happens to be Love or someone else, Adams’ may take a slight hit due to his quality of targets decreasing, but he wouldn’t fall past WR2 range at worst.
Allen Lazard
The thing with the Packers offense is that Rodgers is so good and passes so much that you would assume that their would be another reliable receiver that you could count on week-to-week, someone like a Russell Gage-type that isn’t a high draft pick but has upside. Lazard tried to be that last year at times, but he couldn’t really stay consistent. Through the first three weeks of the season last year, Lazard was the WR7, but after dealing with some injuries and not being able to get back to that level of production, he finished as the WR77. I think Lazard has flex upside this year and if he can get on the same page as Rodgers, you will wish you spent a late-round draft pick on him.
Others?
2020 WR52 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR147 Equanimeous St. Brown, and rookie Amari Rodgers all are intriguing because like I said this offense feels like it should be able to support two wide receivers being fantasy relevant. Someone between this group and Lazard is going to have a consistent backup role so I would probably leave these three guys on waivers (maybe a late rounder on MVS?), and then see if one of them goes off in Week 1 and try for him on waivers.
Tight End
Robert Tonyan
Tonyan lead or was tied for the lead among all tight ends with at least 58 targets last season in only two categories. One is touchdowns which everyone says he is going to regress and he probably will. But, the other category he led in was NFL passer rating when targeted. This gauges the passer rating that quarterbacks have when targeting a specific player. I love this statistic that PFF provides because the better a quarterback’s success when targeted a player, the more he theoretically will be targeted. When Tonyan was targeted last year, the quarterback had a rating of 148.3 out of a possible 158.3 so they were near perfect. Tonyan has a good chance to repeat as a TE1, but don’t rely on his touchdowns for your fantasy success. He should be going as the roughly sixth tight end at his earliest draft position. Any higher than that and you are over drafting.
