Get D.J. Moore on the 1s and 2s in Round 3?
The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Carolina Panthers.
Last year was a breakout sophomore season for D.J. Moore. He finished as the WR18 in 2019 in half-point per reception leagues, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game. That largely seems to be reflected in the 2020 draft season. Moore’s current ADP is WR14 and he is going in late 3rd/early 4th round in half-PPR drafts.
Should I really target D.J. Moore in the 3rd/4th round?
The Upside
Moore’s finish as the WR18 in 2019 was largely based on volume. He was the 10th most targeted wideout and racked up 1175 yards, 8th among wide receivers. Moore was on the field for over 92% of snaps, had a top-10 contested catch rate (55.6%) and caught 87.9% of catchable balls thrown his way. Despite the volume and efficiency, his overall fantasy finish was depressed by reeling in only 4 touchdowns.
In 2020, Moore should continue to see plenty of volume. With the loss of pro-bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement and a plethora of rookies drafted to be starters, the Carolina defense is looking rough. That means new Head Coach Matt Rhule and new Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady likely will be playing from behind. Passes, passes and more passes! Positive game script, thy name is D.J. Moore.
Moore also should see improved quarterback play. Last year, he played only two games with Cam Newtown and the rest with Kyle Allen and Will Grier. Yes, D.J. Moore finished as the WR18 with Kyle Allen under center for 13 games. According to Fantasydata.com, Kyle Allen had a “true” passer rating of 70.2, good enough for 31st in the NFL. That ain’t good.
As our colleague Aaron Pags wrote earlier this year, new Panthers starting QB Teddy Bridgewater is not exactly a fantasy superstar. But Bridgewater is a viable starting quarterback in the NFL who, under the tutelage of Coach Rhule, should be leading a fast-paced offense with powerful weapons like Moore and Christian McCaffrey.
The Downside
The biggest risk to Moore repeating his 2019 season is the Panthers’ other target monster: Christian McCaffrey. In his three years in the NFL, McCaffrey has never seen fewer than 113 targets. In 2019, he saw more targets than Moore. This has the greatest impact on Moore’s redzone performance. In 2020, Moore saw only 13 redzone targets (WR25) and 6 endzone targets (WR34). With McCaffrey’s ability to run between the tackles and catch the ball in space, it’s no wonder he’s seen the bulk of redzone and endzone touches for the Panthers. As long as that continues, Moore’s ceiling will always be limited.
Moore also appears to struggle with getting separation from opposing defensive backs. In 2020, he ranked 45th among wide receivers in target separation. In 2019, he ranked 77th. Last year, Bridgewater only completed about one-third of his passes when under pressure. Unless Moore can find separation, Bridgewater may prefer to get the ball out quickly to McCaffrey and let him make plays in space.
Answering The Question
Should D.J. Moore be my 3rd/4th round target this year?
Yes! Moore’s WR18 performance last year seems likely to be his floor. His target volume has been consistent despite McCaffrey’s presence, and he finds a way to reel in catches despite little separation. Moore gets at least a slight upgrade at quarterback with Bridgewater. If Moore had snagged just two more TDs last year, he would have finished as the WR12 and probably would be a 2nd round pick this year. With a safe floor but limited ceiling, Moore seems like a safe pick as your first or second receiver in 2020.