FIVE FOR $5: Early IDP Value Picks for 2024
This past week, Arby’s brought back a blast from the past—their “Five for $5” promo. Five tasty roast beef sandwiches for the paltry sum of five dollars. It hearkened back to a simpler time—an age when this analyst could actually eat five roast beef sandwiches in one evening.
Now, I eat one, and it’s naptime. Just thinking about them makes me tired. Of course, everything makes me tired nowadays.
I got them anyway—even with sides, I fed the whole clan for like 15 bucks. Not easy to do in 2024. Damn you, Herbert Hoover.
It was a great value. And whether you’re trying to score a cheap dinner, shopping for some threads at Macy’s (or in my case, Walmart) or drafting a fantasy team for the upcoming season, that’s what everyone is looking for—great value.
Now, much will change between now and the heart of draft season in a couple of months. Depth charts will change. Players will get hurt. The opinions of IDP drafters will change. Guys will climb and slide like a game of “Chutes and Ladders.”
Reliable IDP ADP is also a bit like Bigfoot—some swear it exists, but when asked to offer definitive proof, all they can produce is a couple of grainy photographs. But when you’re an IDP degenerate who spends a lot of time around other IDP degenerates, you get a feel for player valuations, whether it’s through rankings or mock drafts.
And right now, all that’s missing from this quintet of undervalued defensive players is some Horsey Sauce.
Dorance Armstrong – DE, Washington Commanders
After six years in Dallas capped by a 38-tackle, 7.5-sack 2023 season, Armstrong moved across the NFC East to Washington, inking a three-year, $33 million contract. Armstrong went from the reigning NFC East champions to the last-place team in the division, but he told reporters that he’s looking forward to helping to spur a turnaround in the nation’s capital.
“It’s exciting,” Armstrong said. “Trying to turn a program around, it takes a lot. You got to be willing to sacrifice a lot of things. It’s a big grind. It’s not easy. It’s going to take everybody.”
Armstrong played just 989 snaps in Dallas over the past two seasons, but he should be a full-time player in his new home. Over those 989 snaps, Armstrong racked up 16 sacks, and his .135 fantasy points per snap last season was actually higher than former teammate Micah Parsons. If Armstrong can sniff his per-snap production the past two seasons on his new team, a breakout season is coming.
Byron Young – DE, Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams edge-rusher Byron Young was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, amassing 61 total tackles, 19 QB hits and eight sacks on the way to earning All-Rookie honors from the Pro Football Writers of America. Apparently, Young could be well on his way to building on that 2023 success—Rams head coach Sean McVay told Chris Long’s Green Light podcast that Young has stood out in early workouts.
“He’s come a long way,” McVay said. “He was a guy that came in, had a good career at Tennessee, and I think he’s just continuing to learn how to add some tools to his arsenal. He had a really good spring, he was arguably one of the more improved players on our football team.”
The lack of buzz around Young a season ago is a lot more understandable than the lack of hype around him this year—Young had more total tackles, solos, sacks and fantasy points in 2023 than Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr., who is being ranked with regularity inside top-12 at the position. If Young truly is headed for a Year 2 jump, a top-20 IDP season is well within reach. So is a cheap DL2 for managers who like to blast away at linebacker early in drafts.
Ivan Pace Jr., – LB, Minnesota Vikings
Pace was quite the find for the Vikings last year as an undrafted free agent—not only did Pace make 11 starts and eclipse 100 total tackles, but Pace also spent substantial time as the team’s defensive play-caller after Jordan Hicks went down with an injury. It’s a role that he told reporters he believes he’s made a case for carrying over into 2024.
“Taking control of the defense,” he said. “It’s basically like being a coach out there on the field. I know they brought in a couple linebackers that got more experience and stuff, but if they trust me enough to have the green dot, I’m ready for it.”
Those linebackers Pace mentioned include Blake Cashman, who is coming off a career season in 2023 with the Houston Texans. But prior to last year, the fifth-year veteran had 75 tackles over four years in Houston and New York. Pace has a year of experience in Brian Flores’ defense and may well be the better talent—if he wins “green dot” duties he has the makings of a late-round steal this season.
Kyzir White – LB, Arizona Cardinals
Like just about everything in the desert last year, Kyzir White’s season was a disappointment—the 28-year-old missed half a dozen games and recorded his fewest total tackles since his 2020 campaign with the Los Angeles Chargers. White told reporters that both he and batterymate Mack Wilson Sr. are determined to show that Arizona’s linebackers are being disrespected this season.
“I feel like they sleeping on us,” White said. “Mack sent me something two weeks ago I guess they put something out, top linebacker duos or whatever, and we were nowhere to be found. We in there working out, running. If we get tired or something, it’s definitely in our head. We ain’t trying to prove anybody wrong or ourselves right but it’s a little disrespectful. I’m not going to say too much. I’m just going to show it.”
White’s torn biceps cut his 2023 campaign short, but in each of the two preceding seasons he topped 100 total tackles—including a 144-tackle, 90-solo campaign in Los Angeles in which White finished the season 11th in fantasy points among linebackers. The Cardinals defense will likely be on the field quite a bit this year, giving White an excellent chance to at least be a bargain LB2 for IDP managers this year.
Reed Blankenship – S, Philadelphia Eagles
It has been quite the ride for Blankenship in the NFL—the former undrafted free agent out of Middle Tennessee State made four starts as a rookie before moving into a role as a full-time starter in 2023. Blankenship’s 113 total tackles in his first year as a full-time starter earned him a contract extension, but Glenn Erby of Eagles Wire believes the 25-year-old is only scratching the surface of what he can do.
Blankenship appeared in 15 regular-season games (in 2023), leading the Eagles in interceptions (three), solo tackles (79), and total tackles (113),” Erby said. “Blankenship became a full-time starter with the Eagles in 2023, starting 15 of 17 and playing 973 snaps on defense (81%) and 124 on special teams. James Bradberry was the only defensive player to play more snaps for the Eagles in 2023. The former undrafted free agent is now a key part of the Eagle’s defense and a potential Pro Bowl starter.”
Those 113 tackles and three interceptions were enough to make Blankenship fantasy football’s ninth-highest scoring safety in terms of fantasy points per game, but he’s falling well into (or even outside) DB2 territory in the early-going. If you’re the type of IDP manager who likes to wait to target defensive backs (as you absolutely should be), then Blankenship should absolutely be on your later-round target list.
Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (X, whatever) at @IDPSharks. For more IDP Fantasy Football advice this upcoming season, visit FantasyInFrames.com.