4-EYED SLEEPERS: Value At Wide Receiver In 2021
There are many ways to win your fantasy football league.
One way is to find value during your draft, which means selecting players later in the draft that have the potential to score more points than other players selected around them. For example, Lamar Jackson was the QB1 in 2019 and outscored the QB2 by 72.8 points (6 PPG), but he was selected in drafts outside of the top-10 QBs in redraft leagues on average that season. This article focuses on WR3s, by rankings and/or their team’s presumptive depth chart, that can exceed expectations and be valuable on your roster. All of these WRs have concerns, which is why they are ranked in 0.5 PPR on FantasyPros as a WR3, but this article will illuminate why these wide receiver values can help you win your fantasy football league.
Tyler Boyd (WR37)
Tyler Boyd is now the veteran wide receiver of the Cincinnati Bengals, at age 26, since A.J. Green signed with the Arizona Cardinals during the offseason. The Bengals drafted Tee Higgins last year and drafted Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in the 2021 NFL draft. This has pushed Tyler Boyd down the ranks. Last season, Boyd was third on the team for snaps/game with 49.7, but he was first on the team for utilization percentage (% of snaps played where the player touched the football or was targeted), with 15.7%, according to FantasyData. Even though Boyd was on the field slightly less than Green and Higgins, he was targeted more often per snap. Volume and opportunity are significant in fantasy football, and Boyd has the opportunity to score a lot of points. Boyd had 1,000+ yards in 2018 and 2019, and he probably would have reached that mark last season if Burrow stayed healthy all season because he was on pace for 1,033 yards and was WR17 while Burrow was the starter.
DeVante Parker (WR43)
DeVante Parker has been pushed down to the presumptive third WR on the depth chart for the Miami Dolphins since Will Fuller joined the team in free agency and they drafted Jaylen Waddle 6th overall in the NFL Draft. Parker is coming off an average season after his breakout season in 2019. Last season, the Dolphins had a roller coaster offense going back and forth between Fitzpatrick and Tua at starting quarterback. Then they stayed with Tua and he just didn’t seem to mesh with Gailey’s offensive scheme. Gailey is no longer the offensive coordinator and Tua appears to be fully healthy going into the 2021 season. In 2019, Parker finished as the WR10 in 0.5PPR points/game, and he was 13th in targets, 4th in receiving yards, 2nd in air yards, and 3rd in total TDs. Granted, he was first on the team in targets with 128 (21% target share) in 2019 and Tua wasn’t the QB yet. Fuller and Waddle add high-end speed to the team, and that could help Parker have softer coverage. Parker has only had one great year (2019) in his career, but he is capable of exceeding his current rank this season.
Michael Gallup (WR46)
Michael Gallup is the third WR on the Dallas Cowboys depth chart, but they have a high volume passing offense. In the first 4 games last season before Dak was injured, he was averaging 50 pass attempts per game! That is not a realistic pace for an entire season, but the defense has not significantly improved so the Cowboys could still have the most pass attempts in the league in 2021. That would mean Gallup will still see enough targets to be fantasy-relevant. In those first 4 games of 2020, Gallup was the WR30 in .5PPR with 13 receptions on 24 targets for 275 yards and 1 TD. That was a rate of 21.2 yards per reception and 10 points per game. If he maintained that scoring all season then he would have finished as the WR31 for 2020. Gallup is a big-play WR and could be capable of scoring more TDs playing with Dak for a full season. Even as the WR3 on the team, Gallup had 105 targets last season, which is a great opportunity for a WR currently ranked at 46 for 2021. Even though Gallup was third in team targets, he was first in snaps at 87.6%! The rate may go down slightly in 2021, but it appears Gallup will have a lot of potential opportunity with so much playing time.
Antonio Brown (WR47)
Antonio Brown THE WR1 for several seasons in a row, then he left the Pittsburgh Steelers and had several personal/disciplinary off-the-field the last couple of seasons. This past season he was suspended for the first 8 games of the season then played the last 8 games of the regular season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the depth chart, but neither has been stalwarts of health and Tom Brady is an efficient passer and threw 40 TDs in 2020. Brown finished as the WR26 in points per game with 11.8 last season. He would have been WR18 in total points last year if he maintained that scoring rate, and Evans and Godwin in all of those games except when Evans was injured early in Week 17. This is a small sample size but after the bye week in Week 13, when Brown was in better shape and had a better understanding of the offensive scheme he was the WR4 68 totals points (17 PPG). Now Brown has an entire offseason to stay in shape and continue to improve his rapport with Brady. There is always a chance Brown has another personal issue has is suspended a game, but he has so much potential and is an absolute steal as the WR47.
Bonus: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR32)
Juju Smith-Schuster is not technically ranked as a WR3, but he is currently ranked as the third WR from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Juju has a breakout second season in 2018 and finished as the WR9 while his teammate, Antonio Brown finished WR4. There were high expectations for Juju in 2019 after Brown left the Steelers during the offseason, but Juju missed 4 games due to injury and Roethlisberger missed most of the season and Juju finished WR66. He finished as the WR18 last season, but many were concerned that he averaged a career-low 6.5 yards per target and 8.6 yards per reception. It appeared Roethlisberger was still not healthy last year and could not throw deep consistently. The Steelers’ offense was different in 2020 and Juju played closer to the line of scrimmage. After a full offseason, Roethlisberger is expected to be fully healthy and if JuJu has similar targets from 2020 (128) then he could flirt with finishing as a WR1 value if his depth of targets increases to his career average before 2020 of 9.33 yards/target.