4-EYED SLEEPERS: Value At Running Back In 2021

Photo of Zach Berger Zach Berger Follow on X Send an email July 11, 2021
5 minutes read

We are told every year to draft running backs early in drafts because the talent dries up fast.

There is merit to that draft philosophy, but regardless of your draft strategy, you should try to target running backs later in your draft that have a chance of giving your roster value. This is not about “lottery ticket” players because those players have almost no value unless the RB in front of them gets injured. Those “lottery ticket” players clog your bench, and you typically drop them before you can cash in. Therefore, they can hurt your roster construction if you draft too many “lottery ticket” players.

The five RBs below are below RB36 by ADP according to FantasyPros in half PPR redraft, and they all have value without any teammate injuries which gives you useable bench depth.

Zack Moss (ADP 103 RB38)

Zack Moss is the only running back on this list that is the presumed starter. He did not have a great rookie season finishing at the RB45 in total points. This offseason he is going this late in drafts as a starting running back because many analysts project him to split a lot of carries with Devin Singletary and Josh Allen seems to vulture a lot of TDs when the Buffalo Bills are near the goal-line. However, in the mid-9th round, Moss does not carry significant risk as your RB3 or RB4.

What to like about Zack Moss:

  • From Weeks 8-16 (Bills did play starters for all of Week 17) Moss out-snapped Singletary in 6 out of 8 weeks and out-touched Singletary in 5 out of 8 weeks.
  • In the last 3 weeks (Week 13-16), Moss out-touched Singletary all 3 weeks and averaged 60.3 rushing yards/game, which would have been RB19 for the season if he maintained that average all season.
  • According to FantasyData.com, Moss was 7th in juke rate, a measure of elusiveness, (29.4%) and Singletary was 26th (21.6%).
  • According to PFF, in 2020 Moss was graded as the 29th overall RB (73.0) compared to Singletary being graded as the 46th overall RB (66.0).
  • According to PFF, Moss was graded as the best true set pass blocking RB in 2020 (89.9), which means coaches may trust Moss more on passing plays and more snaps on the field means more potential touches and more potential points.
  • Moss now has a full offseason with the team, and beat writers believe Moss should get more touches than Singletary this season.
  • Moss is part of a high-scoring offense, which gives him more potential opportunities to score touchdowns.

Michael Carter (ADP 108 RB40)

Michael Carter is a rookie running back for the New York Jets, drafted in the 4th round of the 2021 NFL draft. He is currently not the projected starter when the season begins, but many expect him to take over the backfield at some point during the season. Carter is a dynamic RB and is capable of being a three-down RB if the Jets want to use him that way. The NY Jets have not had a great offense for the last several seasons, but they seem to be putting together a solid, young offense with an improving offensive line and exciting rookies at the skill positions, and hopefully a franchise QB. As a late-9th round pick, Carter is a great speculative pick because he has the potential for high touches with a low draft capital investment for fantasy managers.

What to like about Michael Carter:

  • According to PlayerProfiler.com, Carter has a 98th percentile agility score.
  • Last season at UNC, Carter had 1,245 rushing yards (8.0 ypc) and 11 total TDs while sharing the backfield with Denver Broncos 2nd round draft pick, Javonte Williams.
  • Ahead of Carter on the current depth chart: 
    • Tevin Coleman – PFF grade of 58.7 (T-63rd) with 63 snaps in 2020
    • Ty Johnson – PFF grade of 69.1 (T-41st) with 175 snaps (majority Weeks 13-17) in 2020

Gus Edwards (ADP 111 RB41)

Gus Edwards is the backup RB with the Baltimore Ravens behind J.K. Dobbins. Even as the 2nd-string RB, Edwards still had 153 total touches in 2020. Ravens were the top rushing offense based on yards with 3,071 yards (381 yards more than the 2nd team). They also passed the ball the least in 2020 and ran the ball 57.8% of their total plays.

What to like about Gus Edwards:

  • In 2020, T-8th in YPC with 5.0, 19th in rushing yards (723) and TDs (6), while only being 28th in carries (144).
  • Graded as the 5th overall RB in 2020 by PFF.
  • According to FantasyData.com, Edwards was 4th in breakaway rate (6.2%), as carries of 15+ yards. Even though he isn’t the starting RB he still is capable of having big plays at a higher rate than the average RB.

Tony Pollard (ADP 115 RB43)

Tony Pollard saw an increase in snaps and touches in 2020 from his rookie season in 2019, with an increase of 164 snaps and 28 touches. Last season was challenging for the Dallas Cowboys because they lost Dak Prescott 4.5 games into the season due to injury and the offensive line had several injuries too. Ezekiel Elliott also missed some time and saw his snap percentage drop from 83.6% in 2019 to 68.8% in 2020. Dak is expected to be fully healthy for the 2021 season, and the offensive line expects to be much better this season.

What to like about Tony Pollard:

  • It is reasonable to think that the coaching staff will not want to wear down Zeke and he could have a 70/30 split with Pollard in 2021.
  • According to FantasyData.com, Pollard ranked 16th in juke rate (24.8%) and 14th in breakaway rate (5%), which means Pollard can have more high-scoring plays with more opportunities to touch the ball.
  • Pollard finished as RB41 in 2020 when the Cowboys’ offense performed poorly after Dak was injured and missed 11.5 games. He is being drafted as the RB43, which seems like that is below his floor in 2021 if Dak is playing the entire season.

Trey Sermon (ADP 130 RB47)

Trey Sermon is a rookie running back for the San Francisco 49ers and was drafted in the 3rd round. Sermon has joined a crowded backfield, but his biggest competition for touches should be Raheem Mostert. Mostert has missed 20 games over the last 4 seasons, including 8 games in 2020. The 49ers have been a strong rushing team, and they expected to continue to run the ball well in 2021. Sermon may take some time to earn more touches, but he could see at least 30% of touches by midseason and even more if Mostert has any injuries. Mostert already missed time at OTAs for a minor knee injury and is expected to be ready for training camp, but not a great sign that he is already nursing an injury.

What to like about Trey Sermon:

  • According to PlayerProfiler.com, Sermon has an 81st percentile burst score and a 79th percentile agility score, and he profiles as a two-down RB at 6′ 0″ and 215 lbs.
  • He could take over as the goal-line RB, which adds value even if his touches are limited at the beginning of the season.
  • In 2019 when the 49ers did not deal with so many injuries, they were 2nd in rushing yards/game (144.1 yards), 2nd in rushing attempts (498), and 1st in rushing TDs (23). Even though Sermon will be splitting touches, the rushing offense produces enough to still make him valuable at his current ADP.
Photo of Zach Berger Zach Berger Follow on X Send an email July 11, 2021
5 minutes read
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