Favorable QB & TE Matchups for Week 5 (2021)

Photo of Zach Berger Zach Berger Follow on X Send an email October 6, 2021
4 minutes read

Every week this season, Fantasy In Frames is going to help you stream quarterbacks and tight ends by going over which ones have some of the most favorable matchups each week.

“Luck affects everything. Let your hook always be cast; in the stream where you least expect it there will be a fish.” – Ovid

Does it feel lucky when you pick up the right player off the waiver wire when you are streaming quarterbacks or tight ends? Maybe. However, we are watching the games and reviewing the data to create a process that gives us the optimal chance of selecting the right player. Are we always going to pick the right player? Of course not! However, we need to trust the process (no this is not a Philadelphia 76ers article). Some teams in your league may already be giving up so do not be complacent. Keep checking the waiver wire and who is dropped after the waiver run! Stream QBs and TEs to take advantage of positive matchups to maximize your potential points each week.

How Did We Do?

For the season we have recommended streaming a QB1 50% of the time, and for Week 4 we hit 67%!

For the season we have recommended streaming a TE1 18% and a TE2 45% of the time, and for Week 4 we hit a TE1 67% and a TE2 100%!

The process has been improving as we gather more info each week and the results have been better. We will continue to focus on the process because over time that will yield the best results in the end.

Quarterbacks to Stream – Week 4

Daniel Jones (@ DAL) – 37.9% rostered in ESPN:

Daniel Jones continues to be a staple of this article every week. He is currently the QB9 and is averaging 25.5 ppg. After 4 weeks, he is still the 3rd highest rushing QB with 188 yards (47 yards per game). Jones has the highest passing completion % of his career right now at 66.7% (the previous best was 62.5% in 2020). Jones’ biggest issue has been turnovers, but that is better so far with one 1 interception and 1 fumble. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is better than everyone expected, but they are still average. They have given up 25.5 points a game to QBs, which is exactly what Jones has averaged per game.

Trey Lance (@ ARI) – 27.1% rostered in ESPN:

Trey Lance is the new rookie QB hotness this week! Jimmy Garoppolo is not officially out for Week 5, but there is a good chance he will be out. Lance will make plenty of mistakes and did not look great passing last week. However, he will have a high fantasy floor because of his rushing. He only played the 2nd half but was 3rd in QB rush attempts (7) and 3rd in QB rushing yards (41). He had a long touchdown throw thanks to busted coverage, but scoring 24.38 fantasy points in one half is a promising start. The Arizona Cardinals have been a solid defense and are 9th best against QBs (17.6 ppg). The Cardinals have not faced a rushing QB this season, and Lance can be dynamic on the ground.

Sam Darnold (vs PHI) – 33.4% rostered in ESPN:

Who leads the entire NFL in rushing TDs through four weeks? Sam Darnold! He has 5 rushing TDs in 4 games, and Derrick Henry is 2nd with 4 TDs. We should not expect this rushing TD rate to continue, but that does mean those potential rushing TDs could become passing TDs. Christian McCaffery will hopefully be back this week or next, and he adds another huge layer in this dynamic offense. Darnold is currently the QB8 and averages 26.2 ppg. The Philadelphia Eagles have been an average defense against QBs at 17th giving up 19.9 ppg. Darnold is 9th in passing attempts (146; 36.5 per game) and 6th in passing yards (1,189; 297.3 per game).

Honorable Mention: Taylor Heinicke (vs ATL) – 11.5% rostered in ESPN

Tight Ends to Stream – Week 4

Dalton Schultz (vs NYG) – 47.9% rostered in ESPN:

On the list for a second week in a row, Dalton Schultz! He is now the TE5 after scoring 3 touchdowns in the last 2 games. Schultz is starting to separate himself as the TE1 on the Dallas Cowboys. Through four games Schultz has a 71.7% snap share compared to Blake Jarwin’s 54.1% snap share. Then over the last 3 games, Schultz has a 23% target share compared to Jarwin’s 12.2% target share. Schultz has almost double the target share of Jarwin. That 23% target share is the 2nd highest amongst TEs over the last 3 weeks (only behind Kelce). You should not expect a touchdown every week, but his opportunity is not a blip. The New York Giants have been one of the most favorable matchups for TEs because they give up 13.8 ppg. Schultz can be a TE1 the rest of the season so pick him up so you can stop streaming every week.

Zach Ertz (@ CAR) – 17.6% rostered in ESPN:

Zach Ertz may be considered the TE2 on his team behind Dallas Goedert, but over the last 3 games he has a target share of 16.2% and Goedert has 10.5%. That 16.2% target share is 10th amongst TEs for the last 3 weeks. Goedert has scored one more touchdown, which is the difference in points. Ertz is playing behind Goedert in snap share, but when Ertz is on the field he is being targeted more than Goedert. The Carolina Panthers have been a formidable defense, but they have been right in the middle against TEs by allowing 9.7 ppg. Ertz is a riskier TE because he has competition with Goedert, but part of streaming is taking risks and targeting opportunities, like Ertz’s 10th highest target share for TEs the last 3 weeks.

Honorable mention: Dawson Knox (@ KC) –50.4% rostered in ESPN so he couldn’t be on the official streamer list, but pick him up if available in your league

Photo of Zach Berger Zach Berger Follow on X Send an email October 6, 2021
4 minutes read
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