Fantasy Football Upside in Week 7
Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!
Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 7!
Quarterback
Matt Ryan
Follow @KeithFlemmingWeek 6 was a huge win for both myself and Joe Matz, my cohost of the Daily Fix Podcast, our fantasy football upside QB selection of Jimmy Garoppolo paid off big time due to his performance against the Atlanta Falcons. Along with Jimmy G., we predicted 7 of the top 30 scorers on Draftkings on the pod. I had joked in last week’s article that I had not yet used my secret weapon, a QB facing my Atlanta Falcons secondary, a group who has struggles in fantasy terms against QB’s and TE’s, and that was why I was so confident my pick would finally be a winner. Also, as an added bonus, my Falcons won, a true win-win. Unfortunately, this week that is not an option, unless I can convince people Joe Burrow should be ranked outside of the Top 12. Lol
This week I am going with former Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan against the Tennessee Titans. This is a rematch of the Colts Week 4 loss to the Titans, where Ryan threw for 356 yards and 2 scores. This selection is very similar to my Jimmy G pick last week, where I am selecting a defense, as much, if not more, than the QB. Through 5 games, the starting QBs facing the Titans, have finished in the top 10 in scoring four times, with Daniel Jones, in Week 1 being the only QB to finish outside the top 10 and even that is misleading because Jones scored almost 5 full points more than his average total, which, as it currently stands, was his second highest point total in a game, on the season. In fact, every QB not named Josh Allen, who has played the Titans exceeded their average point total for the season. Josh Allen scored 30 plus points, but is having such an amazing fantasy season, that number is slightly lower than his per game average.
To further illustrate this point, if you are still not convinced that basically any QB facing this Titans secondary, should be an immediate candidate for chasing upside at QB. This list of the QB’s the Titans have faced this season, other than Josh Allen, will immediately make realize that this is a bad secondary. Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz all exceeded their average ppg, and 3 of them finish as a QB 1 for that week. Finally I will leave you with this nugget, the Titans secondary is so bad against the pass, my cohost Joe Matz had the DFS call of the year two weeks ago, giving Dyami Brown at $3,000 vs the Titans. Brown had been a major disappointment up until that point in his first two seasons, being so bad they drafted another wide receiver in the first round this season. Joe said on the podcast he was picking Dyami, literally just because Titans secondary is a walking big play waiting to happen. Brown went on to only play 34.5% of the snaps in that game, run a grand total of 15 routes, and turned 4 targets into 2 receptions for 105 yards and 2 scores. Translation, Matt Ryan should be highly considered to be the favorite QB not projected in the top 12 going into week 7, that will end up being a QB 1 for the week.
Matt Ryan
Follow @JoeEMatzVictory! Trevor Lawrence finally gave me a breakthrough in my Chasing Upside picks, finishing 4th among QBs last week behind a 91% completion percentage and a pair of rushing scores. To keep the momentum going I’m riding with another AFC South QB in Matt Ryan.
If you listen to the “Daily Fix” podcast this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Both my cohost, Keith Flemming, and I talked up Ryan (My guess is Ryan will also be his Upside pick) as one of our selections in this week’s DFS slate. Even outside his bargain pricing in DFS Ryan presents value for those in need of a streaming QB this week. Last week Ryan had his best game in a Colts uniform, throwing for 389 yards and three scores. That may feel like a fluke as Ryan has not been great this year, but it was actually the third time he’s topped 350 yards this season and the third time in four games he’s tossed multiple scores. Rather than consistently mediocre/bad, Ryan has been more of a roller coaster of highs and lows this season, and there’s good reason to believe this week will be another high.
Why? Because the Titans are the gift that keeps on giving to opposing quarterbacks. They’re 28th in fantasy points allowed per game to QBs, and they’ve been quite consistent in helping along opposing signal-callers. All five quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores and the last four have topped 300 yards passing and finished in the top 12 among QBs that week. Daniel Jones in week one finished 16th, but he threw only 21 passes and still managed two scores and 188 yards. Tennessee is last defensive DVOA on deep passes (The difference between them and 31st Green Bay is greater than that between Packers and the 18th ranked team), it’s no wonder they’re last in yards per attempt allowed. Ryan himself has already benefited from their defense. In his other five games this season he’s maxed out at seven yards per attempt, but hit 9.6 against the Titans on his way to 356 yards and two scores (and two turnovers).
My only real concern is Mike Vrabel’s history coming off of byes. In his previous four games after a bye the Titans have won by multiple scores, but that hits me more as a reason to fade Jonathan Taylor coming back of an injury than Ryan. If the game script calls for Ryan to throw 40+ passes, and he’s averaging 42 on the year, then his first game against the Titans (a 12th place finish on 37 passes) should be his floor. Don’t be afraid to roll with Matty “Ice” this week.
Running Back
Tony Pollard
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanTony Pollard is playing behind Ezekiel Elliott this season, however, we are seeing the Cowboys deploy both running backs on the field at the same time at a greater rate this season than in the past. Pollard’s snaps so far are higher than in previous seasons, having been on the field for 43.5% of snaps compared to 30.5% last season. Elliott is at 63.1% of snaps, compared to 66% last season. It is important to note that both players touch the ball at nearly the same rate. Pollard touches the ball on 39% of his snaps, and Elliott has a 42% touch rate. Elliott played well in Week 6, but Pollard looks faster and shiftier. Per Fantasy Data, Pollard has a 7.3% breakaway rate (% of 15+ yards carries) compared to Elliott’s 1.1% rate. Pollard has the 15th-highest breakaway rate in the NFL, and Elliott is the lowest for any running back with at least one 15+ yard carry at 43rd.
Tony Pollard will beat his RB26 FantasyPros ECR rank this week because of his matchup. The Detroit Lions have a TERRIBLE defense that is extremely favorable for scoring fantasy points. I am not concerned about Elliott getting more touches because Pollard will be more efficient with his touches. Pollard should have a handful of big plays, and he can score a long touchdown. He should be in your flex spot or even your RB2 spot with four teams on bye this week. Tony Pollard will have the opportunity to help you win your week!
Is Tony Pollard the best RB2 in the NFL? pic.twitter.com/l7Esx0C4pO
— PFN Fantasy Football (@PFNFantasy) October 19, 2022
Rachaad White
Follow @FFTylerHeilIn the spirit of going after upside, I must highlight the Buccaneers’ backup running back, Rachaad White. This week the Bucs are heading to Charlotte to take on the lowly Panthers, who have given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs through week six. After two consecutive outings with 5.7 and 3.8 half PPR points, you might be asking yourself why you would stick him in a flex spot this week. Well, I am going to tell you why.
In weeks 4 and 5, White saw a 38 and 39 percent snap share before a weird week six game where the Bucs gave up an easy win to a reeling Steelers team. He has seen a significant increase in his opportunities the past three weeks, particularly in the passing game garnering 13 targets in the past three weeks. He has also seen 10% of his total carries inside the 5-yard line this year, indicating the Bucs are willing to involve him in their red zone offense. Leonard Fournette is the guy in Tampa, but with the recent increase in usage for White, it appears they are trying to decrease his workload and save some of the 27-year-old energy for their eventual postseason run.
Eight to Nine opportunities a game might not seem like a lot, but here are the opportunities for the RB24 in weeks 3-6:
Week 3: Tony Pollard, 13
Week 4: Tyler Allgeier, 15
Week 5: Melvin Gordon, 18
Week 6: Khalil Herbert, 7
A running back, particularly one as explosive as Rachaad White, being given double-digit opportunities on an offense as potent as the Bucs has a very good possibility of finishing the week as a low-end RB2 or a high-end RB3. If you have Devin Singletary, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, or Dalvin Cook on bye this week, you can do far worse than an up-and-coming explosive back in Tampa as your flex play.
“I can tackle Rachaad White.” 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩 pic.twitter.com/ev5FttFYSC
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 14, 2021
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods
Follow @bill_mustafaThe veteran receiver hasn’t quite had the start to his Titans career that he’d have envisioned, but Sunday offers the chance to right that ship against a Colts defense that he scored against in week four. The Titans started the season with rookie Kyle Philips as their preferred option in the slot, but since week one, it’s been a bit of a rotation, with Woods, the team’s best WR, getting his share of snaps there.
When lined up as the slot receiver, Woods will find himself matched up against Colts nickel corner Kenny Moore, who hasn’t been playing up to his skill level so far this campaign. PFF has a 44.3 defensive grade on Moore so far this season. That grade is the second-lowest of all CBs that have played at least 360 snaps this season. Moore is also allowing a completion percentage when targeted of over 67%. Combine that with him allowing the third most TD passes amongst qualifying corners, and you can see why Woods might be an upside play this week.
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Deandre Carter
Follow @bill_mustafaThe journeyman pass-catcher hasn’t had a double-digit points return since week one this season. But with Joshua Palmer yet to practice this week and Keenan Allen still limited in practice and preferring a post-bye week return, we could see Carter forced into the WR2 role for Justin Herbert and the Chargers this week. If forced into that role, Carter should see a lot of rookie corner Coby Bryant. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has been one of the worst tacklers in the NFL, missing over 23% of his tackle attempts and allowing over 100 yards after contact to receivers in his coverage. I like Carter’s upside if he’s the WR2 for the Chargers in week seven.
Tight End
Evan Engram
Follow @JKlonowskiNFLI’ll be honest, writing this section has made me feel a little nauseated, so strap yourselves in. Things have been looking up for Jaguars tight end Evan Engram in recent weeks, and the former Giant could be in line for another productive outing this weekend in a revenge game against his former team.
Engram had had a quiet start to his tenure in Jacksonville following his move in free agency after five years in New York. He recorded an average of just under 25 receiving yards per game over his first four games, yet the last two performances have demonstrated a possible moment for optimism. Over the last two weeks, Engram leads the team in targets with a total of 16. He has turned this usage into more meaningful production, recording 11 receptions for over 100 total yards over the last two games. Yet while his role in the offense is clearly growing, this season he is still to score a touchdown for his new team.
And so to this weekend. As mentioned, Engram and the Jaguars host his former team, the New York Giants. On paper, it looks to be an enticing matchup. The G-men rank inside the top 7 in both receptions and yards allowed to tight ends, according to CBS. This week he is ranked as the TE13 according to FantasyPros ECR, in half-PPR scoring. With the number of bye weeks, and the general bleakness of the tight-end landscape this year, Engram presents fantasy managers with a serviceable high-upside option this coming weekend.