Welcome to Fantasy In Frames’ Fantasy Football Starts & Sits for Week 16 (2023)!
What’s good, everybody?! It’s Drew with Fantasy In Frames here, and if you’re reading this, that means you’re probably one win away from a fantasy championship (if your league does it right)! My goal is to try to help you with those difficult lineup decisions, looking at recent performance of players across the league, the matchups for the week, and navigating the many injuries and what they mean for other player’s fantasy football value for Week 16. If you have any specific start/sit questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Drew3MR. Best of luck, and let’s go win some fantasy championships!
Start
Baker Mayfield (vs. Jacksonville)
Baker is coming off his best game of the year, putting up 381 passing yards and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and an impressive 79% completion percentage against the Green Bay Packers.
In Week 16, the Buccaneers get a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been the 3rd best matchup over the last eight weeks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
Geno Smith (@ Tennessee)
Prior to having to miss the last two games due to injury, Geno Smith had his best game of the year in Week 13 against the Dallas Cowboys whenever he was the QB1 overall on the week. Recent reports have Geno without an injury designation heading into the weekend, and word is he’s looked great at practice this week.
While Tennessee has been tough against fantasy QBs over the last two weeks, they’re still the 15th-best matchup for fantasy QBs over the last 10 weeks and will be without five defensive starters and two key backups in this game against Seattle.
Joe Flacco (@ Houston)
I certainly didn’t have Joe Flacco coming back to save the Browns season on my bingo card for this year, but here we are. In his three weeks as a starter, his worst finish has been QB13, and he’s been a top-10 QB the last two weeks.
This week he gets a matchup against a Houston Texans defense that’s been the 4th best scheduled adjusted matchup for fantasy QBs over the last eight weeks, so we’re going right back to Mr. Elite himself.
Sit
Jordan Love (@ Carolina)
Love has been a value based on where you got him in fantasy drafts this year (if you even had to draft him at all), but has been outside of the top 15 QBs the last two weeks.
Things won’t get any easier this week, as he’s facing the most difficult matchup for fantasy QBs over the last eight weeks in the Carolina Panthers. QBs facing the Panthers over the last 8 weeks have been in the bottom 8 in terms of fantasy points above expectation on the week.
Sam Howell (@ New York Jets)
Sam Howell is another QB that was a great value on draft day, but is coming off arguably his worst game of the year where he was benched to “protect him,” that you’re going to want to pivot away from this week.
After struggling on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, he gets the gift of going back on the road to take on a New York Jets defense that’s been the 2nd toughest defense for fantasy QBs based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
Russell Wilson (vs. New England)
As the QB13 on the year, I think Russell Wilson has been better for fantasy purposes than most have expected, however, he hasn’t cracked the top 10 since Week 4. If upside is what you’re looking for to advance to the next round of the fantasy playoffs, I’d stay away from Russ.
The New England Patriots have been the 7th most difficult matchup based on scheduled adjusted fantasy points given up to the position over the last eight weeks, and this game has the lowest over/under on the week as well. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one.
Start
Breece Hall (vs. Washington)
If you’re struggling with Breece Hall as a fantasy manager, I get it. He’s been outside of the top 24 running backs in 3 out of the last 4 weeks. I mean, the man had a whopping 18 total yards last week. However, this week has the possibility to be his best week on the year.
In Week 16 he gets a matchup against the Washington Commanders defense that’s been the second best schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks. Plus, are you really going to let Trevor Siemian throw the ball 30 times? I would hope not.
D’Andre Swift (vs New York Giants)
D’Andre Swift fantasy managers are another group that have to be super frustrated over the last month. 7 top 15 RB weeks over the first 11 of weeks of the season, only to be outside of the top 24 for the last four weeks straight.
Similar to Breece Hall, Week 16 should be much more kind to Swift as well. The Eagles should find themselves in a game script that will provide plenty of opportunities to run the ball against the Giants, and to make things even better, the Giants struggle to stop the run. Over the last 8 weeks, they’ve been the 6th best schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy RBs.
De’Von Achane (vs. Dallas)
Achane is another RB that set the league on fire to start the season, starting with his RB1 overall week in Week 3 whenever he put up 203 rushing yards, and two more top 4 RB finishes the following two weeks. Due to a mix of struggling with injuries and splitting snaps with Raheem Mostert, he’s only had one other RB1 finish since Week 5, and has been outside of the top 24 RBs the last two weeks.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was quoted saying that they’ve had to “take some extra precautions with his workload the last two weeks. No setbacks, and he’s doing really well.. Hopefully, he’ll be able to get even more reps as the coming weeks come.” This couldn’t come at a better time for fantasy managers, as Achane has a potentially high scoring matchup on tap against the Dallas Cowboys who have been the 11th best matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
Sit
Javonte Williams (vs. New England)
Last week Javonte finished as the RB52 on the week and played his lowest percentage of snaps since Week 6.
This week he gets a matchup against the New England Patriots who have been the 3rd toughest schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks.
David Montgomery (@ Minnesota)
It’s always tough to sit a RB in an offense as explosive as Detroit’s has been this year, however David Montgomery’s role has not been the same since coming back from injury. He hasn’t hit 70%+ of snaps since Week 5, and in the last two weeks where he hasn’t scored a touchdown, he finished outside of the top 20 RBs.
This week he gets a Minnesota Vikings defense that’s been the 10th toughest schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks, and has only given up 8 rushing TDs on the year, which is tied for the 4th lowest team total on the year.
Jerome Ford (@ Houston)
A waiver wire darling early in the year, Jerome Ford has only finished in the top 15 RBs twice since Week 7. Things won’t get much easier for him this week, as he faces a Houston Texans defense that’s been the 7th toughest schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks.
Ford is averaging 4.7 targets/game since Flacco took over at QB, but I wouldn’t expect much from him on the ground against this tough Houston Texans run defense.
Start
Calvin Ridley (@ Tampa Bay)
We know there’s no Christian Kirk this week, and there might not be Zay Jones either. So it might just be Calvin Ridley, Parker Washington, and Jamal Agnew left at WR to go up against a Tampa Bay pass defense that’s been the 4th best option for fantasy WRs over the last 8 weeks based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
58% of those fantasy points that Tampa Bay has given up to WRs have also gone to WRs that line up out-wide, which even if we look at just since the Jaguars lost Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley has lined up out wide 77% of the time.
Chris Godwin (vs. Jacksonville)
I wish I knew why it took 15 weeks for Chris Godwin to be used the way he should have been all year, but it made my heart so happy to finally see it happen. He tied his season high in targets, and had a season high in receptions, receiving yards, and yards per catch. The man was the WR6 on the week without even getting into the end zone. This does also make back to back weeks of 11+ targets, the production was just much better this past week.
This week they get to play a Jacksonville Jaguars secondary that’s been the 10th best matchup for fantasy WRs over the last 5 weeks based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position, and the split is pretty even based on points given up to slot WRs vs. WRs that line up out wide, and Godwin moves around a good amount as well, playing out wide 56% of the time and in the slot 44% of the time over the last 5 weeks.
Tyler Lockett (@ Tennessee)
I already talked about how much I liked Geno Smith this week, so lets talk about one of his pass catchers. This week he plays a Tennessee Titans defense that’s been the 11th best matchup for fantasy WRs based on schedule adjusted points given up to the position, and even better, 69% (nice) of the fantasy points they give up go to WRs that line up out wide.
If we look at the numbers since JSN saw a spike in snaps following the Seahawks Week 5 bye, Tyler Lockett has lined up out wide 65% of the time, so he should spend plenty of time playing against favorable coverage this week.
Sit
Terry McLaurin (@ New York Jets)
There’s nothing quite like telling folks that the WR3 from last week is going to stink this week, but that’s where I’m at with Terry McLaurin. First, lets talk about that WR3 week that he had. He ended up with 6 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown, but 3 of his 6 receptions, 93 of his 141 yards, and the TD all came once Sam Howell was benched and Jacoby Brissett came in and did what any smart QB would do and feed your best pass catcher the ball.
With Sam Howell expected to be back at QB (and considering I already told you to sit Howell earlier in the article), McLaurin has a matchup against the New York Jets defense that’s been the toughest matchup for fantasy WRs based on schedule adjusted points given up to the position over the last 8 weeks.
Romeo Doubs (@ Carolina)
Getting back to QBs I’ve told you to sit, Jordan Love’s top WR according to FantasyPros Week 16 Expert Consensus Rankings is another player I’m trying to stay away from this week. Even with Christian Watson and possibly Jayden Reed expected to miss the game, I’m fading Doubs this week.
Teammate Dontayvion Wicks saw a season-high in snaps last week, and his 97 receiving yards were more yards than Romeo Doubs has had in a game all season. Against a Carolina Panthers defense that has been the 3rd toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy WRs over the last eight weeks, Romeo Doubs is not the Packers WR that I want to start if I’m starting one this week.
Drake London (vs. Indianapolis)
Taylor Heinicke was named the starting QB for the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16, and in two games with Heinicke at QB earlier this year, Drake London finished as the WR49 and WR51 despite both being plus matchups for fantasy WRs.
Now this week Drake London gets a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts that have been the 9th toughest schedule adjusted matchup for fantasy WRs over the last 8 weeks.
Start
Pat Freiermuth (vs. Cincinnati)
TE can be a gross position, and there’s 6-7 guys that you know you should start that I’m going to stay away from here. That being said, I think Pat Freiermuth is a solid streaming option at TE this week.
Mason Rudolph has been named the starting QB for Pittsburgh, and I think we can expect him to rely on a familiar face in a matchup that has been favorable for TEs. The Bengals have been the second-best matchup for fantasy TEs based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position over the last eight weeks.
Hunter Henry (@ Denver)
I’d understand if you didn’t want to believe me whenever I told you that Hunter Henry has been the TE3 in back-to-back weeks, but that has indeed been the case. In Bailey Zappe’s last three starts, he’s averaging 5.3 targets and has scored 3 TDs.
Now, this week, he gets a matchup against the Denver Broncos, who have been the fifth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy TEs over the last eight weeks. If I had to bet on one player to find the end zone in what’s expected to be a low-scoring matchup, Hunter Henry would be on the short list of those players.
Dalton Kincaid (@ Los Angeles Chargers)
After leaving Buffalo’s game against Dallas in Week 15 with a shoulder injury, Dalton Kincaid is heading into his Week 16 matchup against the Chargers without an injury designation. Despite not having a top 10 TE week since Week 11, I think he’s a good play this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers are a solid matchup for both fantasy WRs and TEs, and whenever you look at the receiving options for Josh Allen, I think Dalton Kincaid is the second most talented pass catcher on this roster behind Stefon Diggs. In a matchup against a defense that’s been the 10th-best schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy TEs over the last eight weeks, I think he’s a solid start coming off the injury.
Sit
Dalton Schultz (vs. Cleveland)
Similar to there being 6-7 guys that you know you should start, there are 6-7 guys that I will absolutely not tell you to sit regardless of matchup. That being said, there are some TEs I’m staying away from this week, including Dalton Schultz.
Over the last ten weeks, the Cleveland Browns have been the toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy TEs. After logging limited practices this week, Nico Collins could also suit up, giving Dalton Schultz even more competition for targets in a tough matchup.
Tucker Kraft (@ Carolina)
Following the Luke Musgrave injury, Tucker Kraft has provided two top 10 TE weeks over the last month, however this week, I think you should fade the Packers TE.
In Week 16, he gets a matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who have been the 3rd toughest defense against fantasy TEs based on schedule adjusted points given up to the position.
Cole Kmet (vs. Arizona)
This was the toughest TE call to make, as Cole Kmet has been a top-12 fantasy TE for three straight weeks. However, given the matchup and where Arizona is vulnerable on defense, I think there could be better options this week.
The Cardinals have been the 10th toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy TEs over the last 10 weeks, and are much more vulnerable to RBs and WRs whenever you look at where fantasy points are being given up on a weekly basis. Despite his heavy usage of late, this could be a week where the fantasy points go elsewhere.
Start
Green Bay Packers (@ Carolina)
As the #26 D/ST on the year, according to Sleeper, there hasn’t been much to love about the Green Bay Packers, however the matchup is something you can love.
Whenever you’re looking at streaming defenses, the matchup can make all of the difference. The Carolina Panthers have been the second best schedule adjusted matchup for D/STs on the year.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)
The Giants, probably more surprisingly, have been another D/ST that you haven’t wanted to start for the majority of the year.
However, this week, they get a matchup against a New York Giants offense that has been the 3rd most friendly for opposing D/STs based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points on the year.
Seattle Seahawks (@ Tennessee)
While Seattle has only been the 18th-ranked D/ST on the year, according to Sleeper, they’ve had seven sacks, one forced fumble, and three interceptions over the last three weeks.
This week they get a matchup against the Tennessee Titans offense that’s been the 6th most favorable for D/ST’s over the last 8 weeks.
Sit
Baltimore Ravens (@ San Francisco)
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best defenses in the league all year and the 2nd ranked D/ST, according to Sleeper. However, I think you could find better streaming options this week.
In Week 16, they have to go on the road to play the San Francisco 49ers offense that’s been the 2nd most difficult schedule-adjusted matchup for D/STs over the last eight weeks.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Dallas)
Like Baltimore, the Miami Dolphins have been a solid D/ST on the year, with double-digit fantasy points every week since Week 11.
However, this week, they get the high-powered Dallas Cowboys offense that’s been the 6th most difficult matchup for opposing D/STs over the last eight weeks. This matchup also features the highest over/under of the week.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Baltimore)
I’ve already mentioned the Baltimore Ravens D/ST as one that I would like to avoid this week, and in the game with the second highest over/under in Week 16, the 49ers are another D/ST I’d like to stay away from if possible.
The Baltimore Ravens have been the 7th toughest matchup for opposing D/STs over the last eight weeks.
