The new fantasy football season is upon us and it is time for the very first Start/Sit article of the year! The many hours mock drafting, researching, and finally drafting your fantasy football team are behind us so now it is time to furiously tinker away at your lineups.
Coming fresh off of your fantasy football drafts you are probably going to be starting whomever you drafted, but just in case you waited on a certain position here are some starts and sits for Week 1 of the NFL season from a fantasy football perspective. Obvious fantasy football starters are omitted and GET YOUR THURSDAY NIGHT PLAYERS OUT OF YOUR FLEX SPOT.
Let’s begin, shall we?
Quarterbacks
START: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Trevor Lawrence was the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. If there was ever a time to start him in fantasy football, it would be against the paltry defense of the Houston Texans. The Texans are bad up and down both sides of their roster, and this will be a good of a time as ever to fire up Lawrence to see what he can do in this favorable matchup. Plus, if he doesn’t perform well against the Texans, it will call into question if he is streamable later in the season.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Jalen Hurts against the Atlanta Falcons, Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Los Angeles Chargers, and Ryan Tannehill against the Arizona Cardinals.
SIT: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
I am as excited and hopeful as anyone for Burrow to be a great value this year and to be fully recovered from the injury that cost him the second half of his rookie season. This matchup against the Minnesota Vikings looks tasty on paper with the depleted secondary for the Vikings, but they have a strong defensive line and there are serious question marks around the Bengals offensive line. Also, while we hope that Burrow is fully healthy, we haven’t seen him in full-game action and I worry that there might be some adjustments back to game speed.
Additional Sitting Candidates:
Matthew Stafford against the Chicago Bears, Baker Mayfield against the Kansas City Chiefs, Matt Ryan against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Running Backs
START: David Montgomery, Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
David Montgomery was the RB4 in 2020 in half-PPR fantasy football scoring formats and through the offseason, the Chicago Bears have made it no secret that they want him to be heavily involved in this offense. The Bears have also committed to Andy Dalton for this Week 1 matchup against the Rams so look for them to lean on Montgomery early and if they fall behind, Montgomery has shown that he can be an effective pass-catcher. He averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game last season, but he averaged 23.7 fantasy points over his final six games. Yes, the Rams are going to be an intimidating matchup on paper, but if Montgomery is going to take that next step in workload, it starts in this game.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Joe Mixon against the Minnesota Vikings, Raheem Mostert against the Detroit Lions, and Ronald Jones against the Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football.
SIT: Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos at New York Giants
This fantasy football backfield is crowded with the Broncos adding second-round running back Javonte Williams out of the University of North Carolina to the mix. The expectation is that Williams will eventually take over this backfield, but we don’t have an idea yet of exactly what their snap counts are going to look like here. As bad as the Giants were in 2020, they managed to have the third-best graded run defense according to PFF. I don’t feel comfortable banking on either of these running backs in the first week and think they should only have flex consideration if anything. For me, this backfield is wait-and-see, and then use this week’s usage to determine future moves.
Additional Sitting Candidates:
Michael Carter against the Carolina Panthers, Kenyan Drake against the Baltimore Ravens, and Darrell Henderson Jr. against the Chicago Bears.
Wide Receivers
START: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team vs. Los Angeles Chargers
‘Scary Terry’ McLaurin got a hopeful upgrade at quarterback this offseason with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming to town. Last season, he averaged 12 fantasy football points per game and he finished as the overall WR21. This week, he has an enticing matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers which figures to be a shoot-out behind these high-powered offenses. In 2020, 12 receivers had 128 targets, and among them, McLaurin ranked first in yards after the catch per reception, third in yards per reception and tied for the sixth-fewest drops. McLaurin has shown that he is reliable and his expectations are up as he has a better supporting cast around him in 2021.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Marquise Brown against the Las Vegas Raiders, D.J. Moore against the New York Jets, and Marvin Jones Jr. against the Houston Texans.
SIT: Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Claypool had 183 fantasy football points last season in half-PPR scoring and 20% of those came in one game against the Eagles where he had seven receptions for 110 yards and three touchdowns with an additional rushing touchdown on the ground. This kind of performance can’t be expected throughout a whole season, but let’s look at Week 1. The Steelers play the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo and the last time these two teams met, Buffalo emerged victoriously. In that game, Claypool had three receptions for 15 yards and his longest reception was six yards. The Steelers have buffed their run game so you can bet they are going to try to take the focus off of Ben Roethlisberger’s arm early and see what Najee Harris can do in the run game.
Additional Sitting Candidates:
Mike Williams against the Washington Football Team, Tyler Lockett against the Indianapolis Colts, and Michael Gallup against Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tight Ends
START: Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots, vs. Miami Dolphins
Smith has two things going for him heading into the season opener for the Patriots. 1) The Patriots other star tight end, Hunter Henry, is banged up with an injury, and even though Henry says that he is expecting to play, you have to assume he won’t be full-go. And 2) the Patriots cut scrambling quarterback Cam Newton and the rookie Mac Jones will be under center and theoretically more pass-heavy. I feel comfortable starting Smith here against the Dolphins who ranked 22nd last season in coverage defense according to PFF.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Logan Thomas against the Los Angeles Chargers, Rob Gronkowski against the Dallas Cowboys, and Kyle Pitts against Philadelphia Eagles.
SIT: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Higbee finished 2020 as the fantasy football TE18, but his draft stock went up when new quarterback Matthew Stafford came to town, but you can’t just translate the success of T.J. Hockenson in Detroit to Tyler Higbee in LA. Higbee had a stretch two seasons ago where he was dominant, and I think you can assume he will fare better this year as a whole, but his Week 1 matchup is not going to make that easy. The Bears ranked 13th as a coverage defense in 2020 and they look to be strong again. The Rams are not going to go down easy in this one, I just think Higbee isn’t going to be the prioritized shiny new toy of Stafford’s in this offense and he can’t be as relied on this week.
Additional Sitting Candidates:
Blake Jarwin against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Evan Engram against the Denver Broncos, and Eric Ebron against Buffalo Bills.
With IDP options being so plentiful in fantasy football, each week we’re going to list for you an option at each position with honorable mentions to help set your lineups with confidence.
Defensive Backs
START: Xavien Howard, Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Even though Howard demanded a trade out of Miami, he apparently will be content with a re-structured contract for now. Howard had 51 tackles as a Dolphin last season and a whopping 10 interceptions. Looking for a new deal, Howard is going to want to ball out again this year and who better to do it against than a division rival that is starting a rookie quarterback. Mac Jones was always expected to air out the ball whenever he was under center for the Patriots and if that does indeed become the case, Howard will be looking to start 2021 as hot as he finished the last one.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Kevin Byard against the Arizona Cardinals, Harrison Smith against the Cincinnati Bengals, and John Johnson against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Defensive Lineman
START: Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
Hunter may have flown under the radar in your fantasy football drafts because he missed the entire 2020 season, but he is back and appears ready to go for Week 1. In the matchup this week, the two-time pro bowler faces a Cincinnati Bengals offensive line that was put on the back burner on the team priority list when they selected wide receive Ja’Marr Chase with their fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Nobody should be more excited for that choice than Hunter this week who is going to look to introduce himself to Joe Burrow early and often in the backfield.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Brian Burns against the New York Jets, Trey Hendrickson against the Minnesota Vikings, and Romeo Okwara against the San Francisco 49ers.
Linebackers
START: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Doubling up on the Dolphins’ defense may not be wise for me, but I expect big things coming for Baker this season. He is coming off back-to-back 110+ tackle seasons and should be the main figurehead in the front-seven for the Dolphins. In the two games that the Dolphins played the Patriots in 2020, Baker had 40 and 27 fantasy points in IDP123 scoring. In fact, he has had at least 16 fantasy points against them in the four games they have played each other in the last two years. That consistency and track record gives me confidence for this fantasy football matchup in Week 1.
Additional Starting Candidates:
Hasaan Reddick against the New York Jets, Patrick Queen against the Las Vegas Raiders, and Myles Jack against the Houston Texans.