Touchdown dependent.
A not-so-friendly moniker in the fantasy football realm. If a player is considered touchdown-dependent, his fantasy ranking is considered inflated due to a disproportionate amount of his scoring total coming from touchdowns. While this theory does prove true and touchdowns can be an outlier in many cases, one season is a very small sample size. But, if a player continues to be considered touchdown-dependent from year to year to year, doesn’t that player break that mold and simply become really good at scoring touchdowns? Such is the case for players like Marvin Jones Jr., a 4-EYED SLEEPER who can help win you a fantasy football title!
Background
Jones has always seemed to beat the odds. After being a Super Prep All-America at Etiwanda High in Rancho Cucamonga, CA yet not being heavily recruited, Jones stayed close to home and attended The University of California, Berkeley, just a six-hour drive north. After a modest senior season at Cal, where he caught 62 passes for 846 yards and three scores, he was selected in the fifth round (166th overall) by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2012. He saw a limited role as a rookie, starting five of eleven games played and hauling in just 18 passes. Jones burst onto the scene in 2013 with a breakout performance in week 8 versus the New York Jets, with eight receptions for 122 yards and a franchise-record four touchdowns. He finished the year with 51 catches for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns, but was/is he simply touchdown-dependent?
After missing the entire 2014 season due to an ankle injury, Jones returned in 2015 to post 65 catches for 816 yards and four touchdowns. His four years in Cincy were relatively quiet, but he’d done enough to earn a five-year deal with the Detroit Lions worth $40 million. His career in the Motor City began with 55 catches for 930 yards and four touchdowns during the 2016 campaign. 2017 saw Jones reach his potential, hauling in 61 receptions for a career best 1,101 yards (a league-best 18 yards/reception [min. 8.75 rec./game]) and nine touchdowns. In 2018, Jones played nine games before suffering a knee injury that shut him down and finished with 35 catches for 508 yards and five scores. 2019 saw Jones on pace to replicate, and legitimize, his 2018 breakout, including his second four TD game, this time versus his division rival Minnesota Vikings. He was placed on IR in December, finishing with 62 grabs for 779 yards and another 9 touchdowns through only 13 games. In 2020, Jones saw a career-high 115 targets for a career-best 76 receptions and 978 yards and another nine trips to the endzone.
Fantasy Relevance
Fantasy points accrue fastest when a player scores a touchdown, but it’s true that scoring touchdowns are difficult to predict. When we consider the small sample size of a 16 game (oops, still getting used to 17 games) schedule, outliers are inevitable. Both positively and negatively, players typically regress to the mean. If you look at the average, around 18-19% of a wide receivers scoring in a half PPR league come from touchdowns. (To put that in perspective, in ’20 Davante saw a whopping 45% of his points come from TD’s, draft accordingly) 33.1% of Marvin Jones’ fantasy points have come from touchdowns, over his entire 9-year career, he’s not an outlier dependent on touchdowns, he’s just really good at scoring them.
MARVIN JONES IS HUNGRY TODAY pic.twitter.com/LffXnEnyWJ
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 3, 2021
What does that all mean for 2021 and beyond?
In March, Jones signed a free agent deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars for $12.5. For at least the short term, he figures to be a favorite target of rookie Phenom Trevor Lawrence, not a bad decision. Young quarterbacks tend to lean on reliable hands, especially in the redzone. In ’20 Jones only had 9 drops (3rd best) and a 72.7% contested catch rate, fifth best in the league. Combined with his 791 completed air yards (8th best) and his 14 red zone targets (18th) If Jones can remain healthy, 2021 figures to see a minimum WR3 finish, right around WR36. At a current ADP of 120 overall (10th round, WR51) Jones is another great option for folks preferring to RB heavy early in drafts, and a reliable mid-round wide receiver who can quickly pile up touchdowns that you can count on.
