4-EYED SLEEPER (2021): Jarvis Landry
Recency bias can be a cruel thing in fantasy football, but you can use it to your advantage in finding value. Take for example a wide receiver that finished as a high-end WR2 (and a season as a WR1, based upon a twelve-team league) every season from 2015-2019 in half-PPR scoring, finishing 12th, 14th, 7th, 19th, and 13th at the position. A decline to 36th in 2020 has drastically lowered his dynasty start-up ADP for 2021, all the way down to? You guessed it, the 36th wide receiver off the board. Many factors point to a rebound towards another top 24 finish, and make Jarvis Landry a 4-EYED SLEEPER who can help win you a fantasy football title!
Landry has been incredibly consistent since joining the league in 2014. He was a second-round draft choice (63rd overall) of the Miami Dolphins after declaring for the draft following his junior season at LSU. He made an immediate impact with 84 catches his rookie season and has never been below 100 targets or 72 catches in any of his seven seasons. He’s also proven to be very durable, missing only one game (due to close contact with a teammate who tested positive for Covid in 2020) in his career. 2019 saw him haul in 83 passes for a career-high 1,174 yards (a career-high 14.1 yards per reception) and six touchdowns, securing his fifth consecutive trip to the Pro-Bowl. His solid 2019 gave him 564 grabs in his first five years as a pro, the most receptions in NFL history for a player in his first five seasons.
Landry’s 2020 campaign was derailed well before it began, as it was revealed in February that he had undergone off-season hip surgery. He admitted the injury had bothered him throughout the 2019 season, despite rigorous rehab efforts, making his numbers even more impressive. He missed the start of training camp after being placed on the physically unable to perform list in August but was back in time to suit up for the 2020 season opener. As you might expect, the season started slowly for Landry, he only saw more than six targets once over the first seven contests. But over his last five games played, he saw 44 targets (8.8/game) 34 catches (6.8/game) for 369 yards (73.8/game), and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers would put him on pace for 150 targets, 115 catches, and 1,254 yards over a 17 game (remember the new 17 game schedule?) season. He did manage to only score 3 touchdowns (he also rushed for one score, and passed for another) in the regular season, a career-low, but expect a rebound. After grabbing two touchdowns in the Browns’ two playoff games, that gave him 5 scores in his last 7 games played.
So, what does this mean for 2021 and beyond?
Landry won’t be 29 years old until late November, so he figures to have plenty left in the tank. With hip surgery now well in the rearview mirror, you can expect to see Pro-Bowl level production once again. He has two years remaining on his current contract, so his extended future in Cleveland is unknown, we may have an indication of their wide receiver plan once the NFL Draft is complete this weekend. For 2021, expect solid production, even in the Browns’ run-first offensive scheme. The defense is much improved, which should lead to more scoring opportunities. All of this adds up to another top-24 finish for the consistent wideout, whose durability and dependability (7th in contested catch rate in ’20) are never in question. A WR2 for the price of a WR3 is of tremendous value. If you’re in a start-up, he is certainly a wide receiver you should target if you go “Zero WR” early in your draft. In your established leagues, a rookie draft second round should be enough to pry him from another owner.
Jarvis Landry a 4-EYED SLEEPER who can help win you a fantasy football title!