Only 10 players in NFL history have had a season with 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Only one of those players is currently active. Derrick Henry? Nope (2,141 total yards 17 TD’s in 2020). Christian McCaffrey? Nope (2,392 total yards 19 TD’s in 2019). Any more guesses? That player is David Johnson.
I know fantasy football has a short memory, but remember 2016? Johnson finished with 1,239 yards rushing and 16 rushing touchdowns, paired with 80 receptions (on 120 targets!) for an additional 879 yards and four receiving touchdowns, giving him an impressive 2,118 yards from scrimmage and 20 total TDs. Unfortunately, since then Johnson’s name value has taken quite the hit. Fortunately, during the 2020 season, and specifically the latter end, he showed glimpses of the player whose metrics coming out of Northern Iowa were comparable to those of Ladanian Tomlinson.
Johnson quietly put up a productive and efficient 2020 for the Texans. In 12 games (He missed three games due to concussion, and another due to Covid) he managed to put up 1,005 all-purpose yards and 8 touchdowns. He averaged a career best 4.7 yards per carry, a league best 9.5 yards per reception for running backs, and ranked 8th in the league at an impressive 5.6 yards per touch. You might be surprised that these numbers combined to rank Johnson inside the top 20 running backs in half-PPR scoring for the season, and close to the top 10 in points per game. Further breakdown reveals Johnson really hit his stride down the stretch, averaging 131 yards from scrimmage, and seven yards per carry, over his final three contests. Week 16, he posted a season-high 128 rushing yards on only 12 carries and scored two touchdowns, and followed that up with 84 yards and a score in Week 17.
“I’m going to capitalize on those last few games,” the veteran running back said. “Improve on those last games and use that momentum going into this season. Staying healthy. Doing everything I can to help out this offense for sure.”
So, what does this mean for 2021 and beyond?
There is without a doubt some uncertainty when it comes to fantasy forecasting in Houston. The Deshaun Watson saga drags on and is obviously a huge factor on all of the Texans’ skill position players. Peter King recently reported that a Watson trade is “unlikely” while his legal struggles mount, but we don’t know what/if any disciplinary action he may face, and if he’ll be behind center come September. Houston also released pass catching whiz Duke Johnson in February, replacing him with more run-first options in veterans Marc Ingram and Phillip Lindsay. Johnson figures to see a good chunk of early down work, while giving way to Ingram for short yardage situations, including the goal line, but could make that up with the bulk of the pass catching duties. New head coach David Culley, who saw the Baltimore Ravens lead the NFL in rushing his two seasons there, figures to utilize the running back position early and often, after the Texans finished 31st overall at 91.6 yards per game rushing in 2020.
Johnson is 29 years old, but has relatively low mileage compared with other featured backs his age, and should have a few productive years ahead of him. He’ll be a free agent at years’ end, and his landing spot will certainly be pivotal in determining his future worth. For 2021, expect heavy passing down work on a team that figures to be playing from behind a lot, and another top 20 performance in PPR leagues. Johnson was a top 20 running back in 2020 with a modest 147 carries and 33 receptions, consider that his floor for 2021. That’s RB2 potential for a player you can acquire for a mid to late second-round rookie pick.
