After a return to fantasy relevance in 2020, Corey Davis’ move to New York could spell a further uptick in production this coming year. The former firth overall pick has never quite lived up to the high expectations set for him when he first entered the league.
However, after a career year last season, and a new offensive system in New York, the receiver has the potential to be a 4-EYED Sleeper who could help you to a fantasy title this coming season.
Background
After failing to hit the highs expected in his first few years in the NFL, Davis started to demonstrate his pedigree last year falling just shy of his first 1,000 yard season. In 14 games, the former first-round pick amassed 984 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 65 receptions and 92 targets. This represented his strongest year by both yards and touchdowns and was on par with his previous reception total high.
Davis scored an average of 11.4 points per game in FanDuel scoring, according to FantasyData. This represented an increase from his previous high of 9.4 PPG in 2018, and easily eclipsed the 6.2 PPG seen in 2019.
In free agency earlier this year he moved to New York to play in an intriguing Jets offense filled with promise. With a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson, and a new head coach and offensive coordinator, things are looking up for the Jets after the previous regime’s scheme thwarted any possibility of fantasy success. This was a team that had the fewest offensive yards, points scored, and yards per play last season in 2020. But last season’s numbers can be dismissed entirely. With former 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur following Saleh out to the east coast to assume the position of offensive coordinator, he should bring a much more creative, fantasy-friendly offense.
Fantasy Outlook
Follow the money. Earlier this year Davis signed a three-year $37.5m contract, not exactly the kind of money you pay a player you don’t expect to utilize heavily. While the Jets have a fairly deep group of wide receivers, we can still expect Davis to be the number one receiver in 2021.
He has not been getting nearly as much attention as the Jets’ second-round pick in the 2021 Elijah Moore in the press but early signs are that Davis will be heavily involved in this offensive scheme. Davis was described as a “constant safety blanket for Zach Wilson” by DJ Ben-Aime, Jets beat reporter for NY Daily News. There have also been promising reports from training camp surrounding Davis. Head coach Saleh recently stated that Davis “does such a nice job executing in every facet of football”.
Corey Davis in two quarters with the Jets:
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 21, 2021
💥 12 Routes
💥 10 Targets
💥 6 Receptions
💥 88 Yardspic.twitter.com/mSiYH1oWxL
We have already seen early evidence from the first pre-season games that Wilson will target Davis heavily. In the second pre-season game against Green Bay Davis reeled in four catches for 70 yards from six targets.
In this new offensive scheme, we should expect another uptick from Davis’ recent production. He is moving from a Titans team who ranked second in the number of rushing attempts and third-last in the number of passes attempted last year. This was a team whose scheme was directed through Derrick Henry, rushing just over 50% of the time in 2020. This represented the third-highest share in the league behind only the Ravens and Patriots. Davis will therefore be in a much more beneficial situation with the Jets likely to be behind often, coupled with the fact he no longer needs to compete with AJ Brown for targets.
Moore is rightly receiving praise for the way he has started in camp, but we shouldn’t ignore the veteran. While Moore is more than capable of having success this coming year, don’t go into the season expecting regular fantasy production from a rookie receiver – at least not straight away. With all the recent attention on Moore, Davis’ draft cost remains low. Recent ADP shows Davis can be drafted around WR50, a minimal price for someone who could easily be the team’s number one receiving option this year.
