Fantasy Football Shocking Stat: WR Endzone Targets

Zach Berger June 10, 2022

5 minutes read

I will be completely transparent. I can find any statistic that I want to “prove” any fantasy football narrative, and any fantasy football analyst can do the same. Therefore, these stats will only be one piece of the puzzle of a player. We will try our best to analyze these stats to project what these players will do in 2022.

I will be shocked if you can guess the missing WR without cheating!

2021 WR Endzone Targets

1. Stefon Diggs – 23 🔥
2. Justin Jefferson – 15
T-3. Mike Evans – 13
T-3. Mike Williams – 13
T-3. _____________ – 13 🤯
6. Ja’Marr Chase – 12

Who is the missing WR?@FantasyDataNFL
— Zach Attack (@FFChalupaBatman) May 25, 2022

WR Endzone Targets

An endzone target is when the ball is thrown to a wide receiver when he is in the endzone. Endzone targets do not guarantee fantasy success, but more opportunities for a player to score a touchdown is never a bad thing for your fantasy football team. In 2021, Stefon Diggs blew everyone away with 23 targets, while Justin Jefferson was second with 15 targets. As you can see by my tweet, I challenged people to tell me who was tied for third with 13 targets because I was shocked when I saw this stat and never would have guessed this wide receiver if you let me guess fifty times. Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver, had 13 endzone targets in 2021!

Jones Jr. was the WR34 (PPR) in 2021, but he is not much more than a late dart throw in redraft or best ball for 2022. There were over 100 guesses, and what is more interesting to look into are the most popular guessed players: Hunter Renfrow (T-7^th 11 targets), Adam Thielen (T-25^th 8 targets), and Gabe Davis (T-7^th 11 targets).

Hunter Renfrow

Hunter Renfrow is not the first wide receiver most people think of when you say “endzone threat” because he is only 5’10”. What Renfrow lacks in prototypical height, he makes up for in superb route-running ability. When he is matched up one-on-one in man coverage it is almost impossible for the defender to stick with him when he runs his option route.

Renfrow finished as the WR10 in PPR and WR17 in ppg (15.2) in 2021. Davante Adams is now a Las Vegas Raider and Darren Waller is presumed healthy, so Renfrow’s stock has been falling this offseason. It is too early to use redraft ADP, but Underdog Fantasy (best ball) offers the most accurate ADP we can expect for redraft until we get to August. Renfrow’s Underdog Fantasy ADP is 82 (WR40), which is the late-7^th round. Adams had the same amount of endzone targets (11) as Renfrow in 2021. This is just a narrative since we haven’t seen Adams play with the Raiders yet, but there is a greater chance that Renfrow faces a lot more zone or one-on-one man coverage in 2022.

In redraft, buy the dip in value for Hunter Renfrow. At his current ADP, he could be your WR3 or WR4, and that would be a huge boost for your starting roster in PPR scoring. He will provide a safe floor with some boom potential, which is perfect as your WR3/4 in the lineup.

Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen is known for being touchdown-dependent, which is why he was guessed so much. There is a perception that he had a down season in 2021 because he missed four games, but he scored his 3^rd-highest points per game in his career (15.4 PPR) with ten touchdowns (2^nd most of his career after 14 in 2020). Thielen has scored one less touchdown in the last two seasons combined (24) compared to the previous six seasons of his career combined (25).

Thielen has an ADP of 74 (WR36) in Underdog fantasy right now, which is an early 7^th-round pick. The Minnesota Vikings have a new coaching staff, and there is excitement with Kevin O’Connell bringing a dynamic offseason from his time with the Los Angeles Rams. However, we have no idea how Adam Thielen will be utilized in the new offense. He has not exceeded 108 targets since 2018, and there is potential that Justin Jefferson is hyper-targeted in this new-look offense.

Adam Thielen can be fantasy-relevant if he scores double-digit touchdowns for the third season in a row, but Thielen’s other metrics, like targets and yards, have been declining. At Thielen’s current ADP I would rather draft other players that provide a higher floor or more boom potential. He seems to be over-valued because so many people expect him to score double-digit touchdowns, even though touchdowns are not a “sticky” stat from season to season.

Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis is a hot name in the 2022 offseason and has been polarizing. In the NFL regular season, he did not do much for fantasy football. He had one top-12 WR week (Week 15) and finished as the WR58 in PPR. The best statistic for Davis besides his 11 endzone targets was being 20^th for wide receivers for total touchdowns (6). However, in the Buffalo Bills’ two NFL playoff games, Davis went NUCLEAR. Gabriel Davis led all wide receivers in points per game in the NFL playoffs with 32.1 PPR ppg (3.3 ppg more than Cooper Kupp)! In 2 games, he scored 5 total touchdowns and averaged 121 yards and 5 receptions per game. The hype is understandable after two massive games to end the season, but is it over-hyped?

Davis was 4^th for the Bills’ wide receivers in snaps (47.7%) and target share (10.1%) behind Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley. That usage is not high enough for Gabriel Davis to break out in 2022. However, Sanders and Beasley are no longer on the roster and Davis may now be #2, even with the addition of Jamison Crowder this season. The Buffalo Bills are a great passing offense, and Davis can make the third-year wide receiver breakout.

Right now Davis’ ADP is 51 (WR25) on Underdog Fantasy. That is the best ball format so it may skew Davis’ ADP slightly higher because of the presumed upside potential with touchdowns because he has an unsustainable touchdown rate (18.6%). That current draft cost seems like you are drafting Davis at his peak, and that is risky for a player who hasn’t shown that ability through a season yet. Two amazing games to end the season is way too small of a sample size to assume Davis will average 6.5 targets/game in 2022. I understand the excitement around Gabe Davis, but his current ADP is too high for me to recommend drafting him right now.