Welcome to our Fantasy Football Plays and Fades for Week 17 (2024)! For most of us, just one more win stands between you and a fantasy football championship, which makes your start/sit decisions that much more crucial.
I want to start this off with some very simple advice – start your studs. I know some guys have tough matchups this week, but I promise you it’s much more painful to lose while your studs go off on your bench than it is to lose with your studs having an off week in your starting lineup. For this article, I will try to stay away from those must-start guys and help you make some of your other lineup decisions.
Before reading any further, I want to point out that I will be referencing schedule-adjusted fantasy points/fantasy points above expectation throughout the article while discussing a player’s matchup. This is essentially the difference between a player’s expected fantasy point value compared to their actual fantasy production. Fantasy points above expectation looks at how many fantasy points a defense gives up to each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and how that compares to what that position for the team they’re facing had been averaging on a weekly basis prior to their matchup. So a defense can give up fantasy points either above or below expectation to QBs, RBs, WRs, or TEs on any given week.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Bo Nix @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Cincinnati has been a defense we’ve been targeting all year, and nothing is changing this week. They’ve been the 10th best matchup over the last 6 weeks for QBs, and the only reason that’s not higher is because they got to play Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns last week.
- It’s been a little more up and down lately, with Nix not finishing as a QB1 since Week 12. However, he’s still the QB9 in points per game on the season and I think you can trust him in championship week.
- I’ve got Bo Nix as QB7, slightly ahead of his QB8 spot in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) this week.
- Justin Herbert @ New England Patriots
- Fantasy managers couldn’t have asked for much better timing that his QB7 finish last week to give them the confidence they should need to start him this week.
- The running back room lost Gus Edwards but could possibly see J.K. Dobbins return from IR, however I could see them leaning on their star QB with how banged up the back field is. It would be a good week to do it, as the Patriots have been the 7th best matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Herbert as my QB12 this week, a few spots ahead of his QB15 ranking in the FantasyPros ECR.
- Bryce Young @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Don’t look now, but Bryce Young is the QB11 since the Panthers Week 11 bye, and he has another plus matchup in front of him this week.
- While they’re playing better than they were to start the year, the Buccaneers are still the 6th best matchup for QBs over the last 8 weeks.
- I don’t think he should be a starter in 12-team leagues this week, but in superflex and 2QB leagues I think you should be very comfortable starting him. I’ve got Young as my QB20 this week.
Fades
- Cooper Rush @ Philadelphia Eagles
- I didn’t realize just how many people were relying on Cooper Rush recently until I saw how many start/sit questions involved him during our show last week on 4th and Frames. With that in mind, I felt like I needed to make sure he was in here this week.
- It doesn’t get much more difficult than the Philadelphia Eagles defense that’s been the 8th toughest matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks. Whenever you add him the talent level of Cooper Rush, and the fact he will be without CeeDee Lamb, I think it’s really important to stay away in all formats this week.
- I’ve got Cooper Rush as my QB28 this week.
- Drake Maye vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- It’s been an encouraging rookie year for Drake Maye, especially whenever you consider the weapons surrounding him. That lack of weapons is part of what always scares me away from playing Maye.
- Along with that concern, this week you also get to deal with the fact he’s up against the 12th toughest matchup for fantasy QBs this week.
- Despite finishing as a QB1 two out of the last 3 weeks, I don’t have him there this week. Drake Maye is my QB21 for Week 17.
- Anthony Richardson @ New York Giants
- The fact that Anthony Richardson can attempt 11 passes in a game and still finish as the QB14 (like he did last week) somehow makes it feel both easy and difficult to call him a pass.
- The thing with the Giants defense is that they’ve technically been a tough matchup for QBs, but a lot of that is just because they’ve been a run funnel defense and QBs haven’t had to do much. Richardson could easily get in on the fun with running the ball, but the Giants have been the 4th toughest matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Richardson as my QB13 this week, just outside of QB1 territory in your typical 12-team 1QB leagues.
Running Backs
Plays
- Tank Bigsby vs. Tennessee Titans
- The Jaguars were able to play a close game with the Raiders last week, which led to them sticking with the run a little more often.
- It’s easy to see another close contest in this game, where last week Bigsby out touched Travis Etienne and ended up with a goal line carry.
- I’ve got Bigsby at RB27 this week, slightly ahead of his teammate, and a few spots ahead of his ECR this week as well.
- Ameer Abdullah @ New Orleans Saints
- I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Ameer Abdullah has been a top 15 RB for two straight weeks. Now, a lot of that has to do with the fact he has 12 receptions over the last two games, but I don’t see any reason for that to slow down this week.
- Aidan O’Connell has shown a willingness to dump it off to the RB, and the Saints have been the 11th best matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Abdullah as my RB34 this week, slightly ahead of teammate Alexander Mattison.
- Tyjae Spears @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- It’s hard to know how much Pollard’s injury had to do with it, but Tyjae Spears out carried Pollard last week, and had two rushing touchdowns as well.
- If Pollard’s injury and Spears solid play, especially in the passing game, leads to more touches for Pollard – he should be in a really good spot this week. The Jaguars have been 5th best matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Spears as my RB19 this week, four spots higher than teammate Tony Pollard.
Fades
- Rico Dowdle @ Philadelphia Eagles
- The Eagles defense has been the toughest matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks, and that includes games Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, and Chuba Hubbard. And they just got done holding Brian Robinson Jr. to 24 rushing yards last week.
- With how this Eagles offense can score points, it wouldn’t really surprise me if Dallas has to play catch-up in this game, and they end up asking Cooper Rush to throw the ball 35 times again compared to Dowdle only getting 13 carries like last week against Tampa Bay.
- FantasyPros Week 17 ECR has him as RB19 this week, but I’ve got him down at RB25, so he’s a fade for me if possible.
- Kendre Miller vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- I was really excited for Kendre Miller last week. So excited, in fact, that he was in the plays section of this article last week. After watching him split carries with both Jordan Mims and Jamaal Williams in an offense led by Spencer Rattler, I’m not longer interested.
- I don’t care how talented I might have thought Kendre Miller was, there’s no way he’s overcoming a three-way committee in an offense this bad. Especially against a Raiders defense that’s been the 6th toughest matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks.
- Patrick Taylor Jr. vs. Detroit Lions
- Patrick Taylor Jr. was in this article as a fade last week, and not much has changed this week. I had concerns about the talent level of the players on the roster the further you get down the depth chart, and I feel like we saw that come to fruition last week.
- Things won’t get any easier this week against a Lions defense that’s been the 12th toughest matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks. If Issac Guerendo does indeed play this week, I would be fading him as well.
- I’ve got Patrick Taylor Jr. as my RB40 this week, well outside of startable territory.
Wide Receivers
Plays
- Kayshon Boutte vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Since Week 8 he’s been leading the Patriots pass catchers in air yard share, and he’s 2nd in targets/game and receiving yards/game behind only Hunter Henry. He hadn’t really been doing much with those targets, but some of that can probably be explained by the fact that Patriots WRs have had the 3rd toughest strength of schedule since Week 8 as well.
- But that wasn’t the case last week whenever he had a plus matchup against Buffalo and took advantage of it to the tune of 5 receptions on 7 targets for 95 yards and his first TD since Week 6. And I think him and Drake Maye can build on that against a Chargers defense that’s been the 8th best matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks. They’re also giving up the 6th highest amount of fantasy points per game to WRs that line up out wide, which is where Boutte has lined up on over 85% of his snaps since Week 8.
- I’ve got Boutte ranked as my WR43, and the highest Patriots WR on the week over Demario Douglas.
2. Khalil Shakir vs. New York Jets
- Khalil Shakir has been pretty consistent this year, leading the Bills in target share, receiving yards/game, yards per route run, and first read target percentage, but all of that has come out to him being the WR39 in PPR. Nothing crazy, but a consistent WR3 or flex option for you all year, and I think the matchup allows for him to be more of a WR2 this week.
- The Jets have been the 13th best matchup over the last 6 weeks for WRs, but more specifically they’re giving up the 2nd highest points per game to WRs that line up in the slot over that same time span, which is where Shakir has lined up for over 73% of his snaps this year. Just keep an eye on the weather to make sure the wind and rain doesn’t get out of hand.
- I’ve got Shakir as my WR22 on the week, 11 spots higher than his Week 17 WR33 spot in the ECR.
3. Dontavyion Wicks @ Minnesota Vikings
- I need to attach a disclaimer to this call – this is assuming that Christian Watson misses this week with his knee injury. If that’s the case, Wicks should step in as the other outside WR across from Romeo Doubs for the majority of snaps in this offense.
- Lucky for Wicks, he gets to face a Vikings defense that’s been the best matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks, and have been giving up the 2nd highest points per game to WRs that line up out wide during that same time frame as well.
- Assuming Watson is out, I have Wicks as my WR39 this week.
Fades
- Jameson Williams @ San Francisco 49ers
- The usage definitely hasn’t been the concern. Williams has seen at least 7 targets in all but one game since Week 12, and that one game he still had 5 targets. Even with those targets, last week was the first time since Week 11 that he finished inside the top 24 WRs. Now this week he gets the San Francisco 49ers which have been the toughest matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks – and that includes matchups against the Dolphins, Rams, Bears, Packers, and Seahawks receivers.
- Jameson moves around a decent amount, with about 65% of his routes out wide and 35% I the slot, but it doesn’t really matter where he lines up based on what this defense has done recently. They’ve given up the 8th lowest points per game to WRs that line up out wide, and the 4th lowest to WRs that line up in the slot.
- I’m not saying you can’t start him. I still have him as my WR36 this week, but I’m worried.
2. Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Wan’Dale Robinson has been a solid flex play for the majority of the season for those in deeper leagues, but I’d look for better options this week.
- The Colts have been the 2nd toughest matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks, and they’ve given up a league low 6.3 fantasy points per game to WRs that line up in the slot during that same time frame as well. Bad time to tell you that Wan’Dale has lined up in the slot on over 78% of his snaps this year?
- I’ve got Wan’Dale as my WR57 this week, well below his WR40 spot in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).
3. Parker Washington vs. Tennessee Titans
- Let’s get even deeper, as some of you could have been depending on Parker Washington who was the WR38 last week and the WR5 back in Week 13.
- Even though he could be the second option in the passing offense, at the end of the day it’s still led by Mac Jones. To go along with that, the Titans have been the 6th toughest matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks. They’ve also given up the 3rd lowest amount of fantasy points per game to slot WRs over that same time frame, which is where Washington has lined up for almost 40% of his snaps the last couple of weeks.
- I’ve got Parker Washington as my WR66 on the week, well outside of anyone that you should be considering starting.
Tight Ends
Play
- Jake Ferguson @ Philadelphia Eagles
- I already had Jake Ferguson listed as a play before we found out that CeeDee Lamb wouldn’t be playing this week, so he’s definitely a play now.
- He’s averaged over 6 targets/game the last 3 weeks, and I would expect him to go over that number this week. As an added bonus, the Eagles have been the 9th best matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks, one of the only places they’ve been vulnerable.
- I’ve got Ferguson as my TE11, someone that should be started in all 12-team leagues this week.
2. Chig Okonkwo @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chig was featured in the plays section of this article last week and responded with his second straight week in the top 7 TEs, finishing as the TE2 overall.
- Let’s run it back. The Jaguars have been the 11th best matchup for TEs over the last 8 weeks, so I’m expecting another good week for Chig with Mason Rudolph.
- I’ve got him as the TE12 for the week, another borderline starter for your championship game.
3. Dalton Kincaid vs. New York Jets
- While it didn’t end up doing much for his fantasy performance, Kincaid had another 7 targets against the Patriots last week. Unfortunately, those 7 targets only turned into 4 receptions and 15 yards. It was a weird week for the Bills offense, with James Cook leading all pass catchers with 26 receiving yards.
- If Kincaid continues to see a similar target share, I think he’ll fare better against a Jets defense that’s been the 7th best matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Kincaid as my TE14, and a strong consideration to play for the TD upside alone.
Fades
- Zach Ertz @ Atlanta Falcons
- Despite playing 71% of snaps last week, Ertz had only two targets for a second straight game.
- Things won’t get any easier against a Falcons defense that’s been the 2nd toughest matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks.
- I’ve got Ertz as my TE20 on the week.
2. Tyler Higbee vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Higbee made his return from torn ACL injury last year and immediately found the end zone. I just want to make sure him finishing as the TE17 didn’t put him on any radars for deeper leagues.
- The Cardinals have been the 7th toughest matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks, and he only saw two targets on his 27% of snaps. While I expect the snaps to go up, I don’t think his role in the offense will grow as long as Kupp and Puka are healthy.
- I’ve got Higbee as my TE30 on the week.
3. Hunter Henry vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- If I’m going to be concerned about Drake Maye, it would make sense for me to be concerned about his #1 option in the offense as well.
- The Chargers have been the toughest matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks, and that includes matchups against Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.
- I’ve got Henry as my TE15 on the week, just outside of TE1 territory.
Plays
- Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
- There hasn’t been a better offense for your D/ST to see on their schedule over the last 6 weeks, and I don’t expect anything different for the Colts this week.
2. Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
- The Bengals got the DTR experience for the Browns at QB last week and ended up being the second highest scoring D/ST on the week. Miami is up next.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
- The Titans have been the 3rd best matchup for your D/ST, and even a defense as bad as the Jaguars is streamable against this offense.
Fades
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
- The Packers have been the 2nd toughest matchup for your D/ST over the last 6 weeks. Even as good as the Vikings defense has been, I would look to the waiver wire with so many viable streaming options this week.
2. Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
- A team can only deal with so many injuries, and I think the Lions defense has finally hit that point. The 49ers offense can be a tough task even if you’re healthy.
3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions
- Given what I just said about the Lions defense, I could easily see this game turning into a shootout. I’m doing my best to stay away from this game for D/ST purposes.
