Welcome to our Fantasy Football Plays and Fades for Week 16 (2024)! Just a couple more wins stand between you and a fantasy football championship, which makes your start/sit decisions that much more crucial.
I want to start this off with some very simple advice – start your studs. I know some guys have tough matchups this week, but I promise you it’s much more painful to lose while your studs go off on your bench than it is to lose with your studs having an off week in your starting lineup. For this article, I will try to stay away from those must-start guys and help you make some of your other lineup decisions.
Before reading any further, I want to point out that I will be referencing schedule-adjusted fantasy points/fantasy points above expectation throughout the article while discussing a player’s matchup. This is essentially the difference between a player’s expected fantasy point value compared to their actual fantasy production. Fantasy points above expectation looks at how many fantasy points a defense gives up to each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and how that compares to what that position for the team they’re facing had been averaging on a weekly basis prior to their matchup. So a defense can give up fantasy points either above or below expectation to QBs, RBs, WRs, or TEs on any given week.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee Titans
- It’s been boom or bust for Richardson so far this year. In the 9 games he’s played at least 98% of snaps this year he’s had two finishes inside the top 5 QBs and another top 10 finish, but he’s also had 5 finishes outside of the top 20 QBs. I think we’re in for a boom this week.
- The Titans have been middle of the pack against fantasy QBs over the last 6 weeks, coming in as the 15th best matchup based on fantasy points above expectation. This Titans defense isn’t the same tough matchup that we saw at the beginning of the year, and they have virtually nothing to play for at this point in the season as well.
- Richardson has also had at least 7 rush attempts in 4 straight games, giving you a safe floor as well.
- Jordan Love vs. New Orleans Saints
- I had Jordan Love as a fade in the Week 15 version of this article, but for these backend QB1’s the matchup can make all of the difference.
- Despite the tough matchup against Seattle last week, Love played really well and ended up finishing as the QB12 on the week.
- Now this week Love will go up against a Saints defense that’s been the 8th best matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks. You should be able to start Jordan Love in 10 and 12 team leagues with confidence.
- Matthew Stafford @ New York Jets
- It’s going to be a cold one at Metlife Stadium this weekend, but it’s looking like there won’t be any snow, so the weather shouldn’t affect this game the way the rain messed up Stafford’s game last week against San Francisco.
- Prior to last week, Stafford had been a top 10 QB in 3 of the previous 4 weeks, and he has another favorable matchup ahead of him.
- The Jets have been the very best matchup for fantasy QBs over the last 6 weeks, which is something that Stafford should be able to take advantage of with a fully healthy set of pass catchers and offensive line for one of the few times so far this season. He’s a backend QB1 for me on the week.
Fades
- Tua Tagovailoa vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Prior to last week, Tua was on an absolute heater. He had been a top 10 QB for 4 straight weeks, had multiple passing TDs each of those weeks, and didn’t throw a single interception. But it all came crashing down last week. He was the QB29 against Houston with only 1 TD and 3 INTs and wasn’t even able to crack 200 passing yards on 40 pass attempts.
- Things aren’t going to get any easier this week either. Tua’s got a matchup with a 49ers defense on deck that’s been the 2nd toughest matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks – and that includes games against Baker, Geno, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, and Stafford in that sample so it’s not like they have just been dealing with cake matchups.
- For those of you in 2QB or Superflex leagues, this one isn’t for you. He’s absolutely still a starter in those leagues, but in your typical 12-team 1QB leagues, I think you can find better options this week. Rodgers and Stafford are both behind Tua in the Expert Consensus Rankings, and I’d rather start them both.
- Sam Darnold @ Seattle Seahawks
- Unfortunately for Sam Darnold fantasy managers, the 5 passing TD’s from Week 14 did not carry over to Week 15. Darnold has now failed to be a QB1 in two of the last three weeks, and he’s in another tough spot this week.
- The Seahawks have been the 9th toughest matchup for QBs over the last 6 weeks, and while it’s always tough to know this far out, there’s a decent chance for rain during the game as well.
- I’ve got Sam Darnold just outside of my top 12 QBs this week, and think you can stream better options.
- Michael Penix Jr. vs. New York Giants
- I’m excited to see what Michael Penix Jr. can do for the Falcons offense, but I’m going to wait at least a week before putting him in my fantasy lineup.
- While the Giants might be a bad team, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve been a good defense to target for fantasy, unless you’re looking at the running back position.
- Over the last 6 weeks, the Giants have been the 7th toughest matchup for fantasy QBs. Teams just simply haven’t needed to throw the ball much against the Giants, and in the rookie’s first career start I would expect a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in this game. Even in superflex leagues, I’m staying away this week.
Running Backs
Plays
- Tony Pollard @ Indianapolis Colts
- Among RBs with at least 50 rush attempts on the year, Pollard is 10th in rushing yards/game, 6th in yards after contact per attempt, and is averaging over 4 yards per carry despite playing in a poor offense all year, which might have actually improved a little bit with Will Levis being benched.
- While they’ve been a tough matchup for QBs and WRs, over the last 6 weeks the Colts have been the 9th best matchup whenever you look at fantasy points above expectation.
- I’m not sure if you guys believe in incentive narratives, but personally, I do. I believe that players and coaches are aware of guys being close to hitting certain incentives, and Pollard is one to keep an eye on. He needs 2 more TDs for $200k and 118 more rushing yards for another $250k.
- Jerome Ford @ Cincinnati Bengals
- I’ll be honest, I’m terrified of what this Browns offense is going to look like with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB this week.
- The one guy I’m not worried about is Jerome Ford. With Nick Chubb on IR, I expect Ford to be on the field regardless of what direction the game script goes in this game.
- Along with Ford being set up to play a ton of snaps, he’s also going up against a Bengals defense that’s been the 2nd best matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks.
- Kendre Miller @ Green Bay Packers
- Calling one backup RB playing with a backup QB as a play this week wasn’t enough, so we’re running it back with Kendre Miller.
- Alvin Kamara didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday of this week, and has been listed as doubtful for the game on Monday night. Spencer Rattler is also starting a QB, so the questions of how well the offense will move the ball are warranted.
- I still believe that the Saints will at least have one thing going for them on offense – Kendre Miller is a talented RB that just really hasn’t gotten to show it yet. This Packers run defense has been middle of the road over the last 6 weeks, but Kendre should get plenty of volume with no Kamara.
Fades
- Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- This is one of those calls where I would understand if you can’t afford to outright bench Brian Robinson Jr. this week, but I would just temper expectations.
- This Eagles run defense has been no joke, coming in as the 2nd toughest run defense over the last 6 weeks.
- Getting into the end zone saved B Rob’s day the last time Washington played the Eagles in Week 11, and I don’t want to have to bet on that happening again.
- Zach Charbonnet vs. Minnesota Vikings
- While you never want to see a player get hurt, Zach Charbonnet has provided a nice lift to fantasy manager’s lineups while Kenneth Walker has been out. Unfortunately, that fun is over.
- Kenneth Walker is set to return to the lineup this week, and while I don’t think Charbonnet will completely disappear, I do think this will be a timeshare with Walker taking the lead role.
- On top of that, the Vikings have been the 3rd toughest matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks, so it’s time to send Charbonnet back to your bench.
- Patrick Taylor Jr. @ Miami Dolphins
- I know that we love San Francisco 49ers RBs for fantasy football, but once you get so far down the depth chart I think you eventually have to get worried about the talent of the player you’re putting in your lineup.
- If you include Elijah Mitchell in the mix, the 49ers are now down to their 5th string RB. He hasn’t shown us much over his career to get excited about, with his career yards per carry coming in at 3.9.
- To go along with this, the Miami Dolphins have been the 7th toughest matchup for RBs over the last 6 weeks.
Wide Receivers
Plays
- Christian Watson vs. New Orleans Saints
- .It’s always a dangerous game trying to figure out which Packers pass catcher is the one you want to start for fantasy on a weekly basis, but Christian Watson is the guy I have my eyes on this week.
- The Saints have been the 9th best matchup for WRs based on fantasy points above expectation over the last 6 weeks and they’ve also given up the 4th highest amount of fantasy points per game to WRs that line up out wide during that same time frame, and Watson has lined up out wide on over 70% of his snaps this year.
- If you look at expected fantasy points per route run, it tells you what kind of efficiency you can expect on a weekly basis adjusting a players actual fantasy points per route run based on the matchup they have for the week, and Watson has the 14th highest expected fantasy points per route run on the week among pass catchers. And on top of that, Watson is 3rd among pass catchers in average separation score on the year as well.
2. Jakobi Meyers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jakobi Meyers finished as the WR36 after I listed him as a play last week, and honestly I’m impressed he even finished that high with how awful Desmond Ridder looked.
- The targets in this offense are just so consolidated between Meyers and Brock Bowers, and even though Aidan O’Connell isn’t much of an upgrade, it should still be better QB play that what the Raiders got out of Ridder last week.
- The Jaguars have also been the 8th best matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks, so I think you can go right back to Meyers this week and expect a better fantasy finish than the week prior.
3. DK Metcalf vs. Minnesota Vikings
- It has not been the year DK Metcalf fantasy managers were hoping for. He’s the WR35 in PPR PPG on the season, and has been the WR48 since Week 9.
- If Geno Smith ended up not playing this week, DK probably wouldn’t have made this list, but with Geno good to go I think this could be a get right game for Metcalf.
- The Vikings have been the 6th best matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks, and they’re giving up the 6th most fantasy points per game to WRs that line up out wide over that same time frame, which is where Metcalf has lined up on over 85% of his snaps this season.
Fades
- Adam Thielen vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Recently the Cardinals have been a run funnel defense. Over the last 6 weeks they’ve been the 10th best matchup for fantasy RBs (I’m looking at you Chuba), but they’ve been the 3rd toughest matchup for fantasy WRs.
- The one plus for Thielen is that Arizona has been tougher on WRs that line up out wide vs WRs that line up in the slot. Over the last 6 weeks they’re giving up 13.1 fantasy points to WRs that line up out wide and 13.9 fantasy points to WRs that line up in the slot.
- If you’re just looking for a safe play to give you a decent PPR floor, Thielen will probably still get that done for you. If you need upside this week – I don’t think Thielen is the answer. Floor doesn’t usually win fantasy championships, so Thielen is a pass for me this week.
2. Calvin Ridley @ Indianapolis Colts
- Will Levis has been benched by the Tennessee Titans, but Mason Rudolph is not enough of an upgrade (is he even an upgrade?) for me to get excited about Calvin Ridley.
- Ridley only has one finish inside the top 24 WRs over the last 5 weeks, and things won’t be any easier this week.
- I already mentioned one of the reasons why I liked Tony Pollard this week was because the Colts have been a run funnel defense, which does not mean good things for the WRs. Over the last 6 weeks, they’ve been the 4th toughest matchup based on fantasy points above expectation.
3. Jordan Addison @ Seattle Seahawks
- If I’m lower than consensus on Sam Darnold this week, it’s probably not much of a surprise that I’m also down on one of his top pass catchers.
- Look, I don’t care what the matchup looks like, there’s a zero percent chance I’m fading Justin Jefferson. However, I can’t say the same for Addison.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been the 9th toughest matchup for WRs based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position over the last 6 weeks, and they’re also giving up the 3rd lowest amount of fantasy points per game to WRs that line up out wide, which is where Addison has lined up on over 65% of his snaps this season.
Tight Ends
Play
- Brenton Strange @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Whenever Evan Engram has been out, Brenton Strange has been able to step in and produce each time. He’s played 65%+ of snaps in 5 games this year, and he’s been a top 10 TE in 4 of those games. That includes last week where he was the TE2 on the week after Mac Jones targeted him 12 times.
- Now this week Strange and the Jaguars go up against a Raiders defense that’s been the 4th best matchup for TE’s over the last 6 weeks.
2. Dalton Kincaid vs. New England Patriots
- Dalton Kincaid returned from injury last week after missing the last 3 games, and was tied with Khalil Shakir for the most targets on the week.
- Now he’s set to go up against a Patriots defense that’s been the 6th best matchup for TE’s over the last 6 weeks.
3. Chig Okonkwo @ Indianapolis Colts
- This is the gross TE dart throw of the week. Chig had a season high 10 targets and 8 receptions last week, and the switch to Rudolph might help Chig more than anyone else in this offense.
- While we already talked about how tough the Colts have been against WRs recently, we can’t say the same about the TE position. They’ve been the 2nd best matchup over the last 6 weeks.
Fades
- Hunter Henry @ Buffalo Bills
- Hunter Henry continues to be one of the main targets in this Patriots passing offense, but whenever it comes to the backend TE1’s I tend to pay a little bit more attention to the matchup.
- The Bills have been the 7th toughest matchup for fantasy TE’s, and if Austin Hooper is going to be on the field for 60%+ snaps again this week, that lowers Henry’s upside as well.
2. Kyle Pitts vs. New York Giants
- It brings me no joy to say this, but don’t let the Kirk Cousins benching trick you into thinking this is going to be the thing that turns it around for Pitts. If you know me at all, you know how much I love Kyle Pitts, but something just isn’t right.
- He hasn’t been a top 10 TE since Week 8, and the Giants are also middle of the pack against TE’s, coming in as the 14th toughest matchup over the last 6 weeks.
3. Tucker Kraft vs. New Orleans Saints
- I’ve already talked about the gamble of deciding which Packers pass catcher to start every week, and this week I don’t think it’s Tucker Kraft.
- The Saints have been the 11th toughest matchup for TEs over the last 6 weeks, and it appears the Packers WRs are going to be better set up for success this week.
Plays
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
- I don’t care who is playing QB for the Titans, you can always feel comfortable streaming any D/ST against them. This week is no different.
2. Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
- See Titans, Tennessee. I don’t care who is playing QB for The Giants, stream the D/ST that’s fortunate enough to play them.
3. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
- At the beginning of the year I wouldn’t have expected this, but this game has the second lowest over/under of the week, and the Texans have the 4th lowest projected points for the week.
Fades
- Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
- Given the success the Bears offense had against Detroit earlier this year, and the fact that the Lions defense just continues to lose players to injury, I’m staying away from the Lions this week.
2. New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams
- The Rams have been the 5th toughest matchup for D/ST over the last 6 weeks, and the Jets defense hasn’t been playing well recently as it is.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
- I don’t care that the Steelers defense had success the last time they saw the Ravens, I’m not betting against Lamar Jackson at home.
