Welcome to our Fantasy Football Plays and Fades for Week 15 (2024)! We’re finally past all of the bye weeks, but having our full allotment of players just makes these start/sit discussions that much more difficult. This is where we break down matchups and player trends to help you find the right players to play and which players to avoid each week.
I want to start this off with some very simple advice – start your studs. I know some guys have tough matchups this week, but I promise you it’s much more painful to lose while your studs go off on your bench than it is to lose with your studs having an off week in your starting lineup. For this article, I will try to stay away from those must-start guys and help you make some of your other lineup decisions.
It’s Week 15, which for most people means the first round of the fantasy playoffs where’s it’s win or go home. That is, unless you secured a bye in your league (if you’re still reading this plays/fades article even though you have a bye, you’re my kind of person).
Before reading any further, I want to point out that I will be referencing schedule-adjusted fantasy points throughout the article while discussing a player’s matchup. This is based on the fantasy points above expectation allowed per game to a specific position. This is essentially the difference between a player’s expected fantasy point value compared to their actual fantasy production. Fantasy points above expectation looks at how many fantasy points a defense gives up to each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and how that compares to what that position for the team they’re facing had been averaging on a weekly basis prior to their matchup. So a defense can give up fantasy points either above or below expectation to QBs, RBs, WRs, or TEs on any given week.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Justin Herbert vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- It hasn’t necessarily been flashy, but Justin Herbert has been solid recently. He’s been a top 12 QB 5 out of the last 7 weeks, and he’s 10th among qualifying quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage.
- This week he’s up against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s been the best matchup for QB’s over the last 8 weeks based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
- Given the matchup and Herbert’s recent play, you should feel confident firing him up as a top-12 QB this week.
- Bryce Young vs. Dallas Cowboys
- I had Bryce Young in the fades section of this article in a tough matchup against Philadelphia last week, and he ended up having a pretty solid week considering the matchup, finishing as the QB20 on the week.
- Things should be much easier for Young on the matchup front this week. The Dallas Cowboys have been the 5th best matchup for QBs over the last 8 weeks, giving up 4.6 fantasy points above expectation to the position.
- He’s still not a starter in 1QB leagues, but he’s a play for me in 2QB and superflex leagues.
- Jameis Winston vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- It didn’t feel good having Jameis Winston in the fades section of this article last week because of the love I have for him, and he wasted no timing showing me why it was a bad idea. Despite a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Winston finished as the QB12 on the week.
- There’s no way I’m making the same mistake twice. While the Chiefs seem like a tough matchup on the surface, things have been different as of late. The Chiefs have actually been the 12th best matchup for QBs over the last 5 weeks.
- It’s tough to ignore the fact that Jameis has went over 40 passing attempts in 5 of the 6 games he’s started this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do the same this way. He’s just outside of my top 12 QBs on the week, but I understand if you’re in a 12-team 1QB league and want to start him.
Fades
- Jordan Love @ Seattle Seahawks
- Considering he’s the QB10 in fantasy points per game so far this season, there are probably a good amount of people starting Jordan Love this week, and I think that’s a bad idea.
- Love and the Packers have to face a Seahawks defense that’s been the 9th toughest matchup for QBs over the last 8 weeks. And in a week with no byes, I think there’s options you can stream over Love this week.
- And while the Seahawks have been tough against QBs recently, they’ve been more middle of the pack against RBs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Packers continue to lean on Josh Jacobs in the red zone in this matchup, lowering Love’s overall upside.
- Bo Nix vs. Indianapolis Colts
- If telling you to pass on the QB10 in points per game wasn’t enough, how about passing on the QB11 as well? The rookie has been impressive so far this season, but I’m worried this week.
- After a rough start to the year, the Colts defense has turned it around. Over the last 5 weeks they have been the 8th toughest matchup for QBs, and that’s with matchups against Josh Allen and Jared Goff in that sample.
- With how well both defenses in this game have played recently, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being a low scoring defensive battle.
- Baker Mayfield @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Telling you to pass on the QB10 and QB11 on the season wasn’t enough for you? Fine, you should pass on the QB5 as well.
- This one has nothing to do with Baker Mayfield the player. He’s been awesome this year, but with nobody on bye I think you could find better options that can provide you with more upside.
- The Chargers have been the 11th toughest matchup for QBs over the last 8 weeks, and I think this will ultimately limit his upside. Baker is outside of my top 12 QBs for Week 15.
Running Backs
Plays
- Brian Robinson Jr. @ New Orleans Saints
- After he left the Week 12 game against the Cowboys early with the ankle injury, Brian Robinson came back two weeks ago and put up a RB1 performance on only 47% of snaps. Now fresh off his bye week, I think that snap percentage will get closer to the 60%+ of snaps that he was playing when he was healthy to start the season, especially considering there’s no Austin Ekeler.
- This week Robinson goes up against a Saints defense that’s been the 2nd best matchup for RBs over the last 8 weeks. Since Robinson isn’t involved much in the passing game, a lot of times rather he’s a RB1 or RB2 on the week depends on if he gets into the end zone or not. While this is tough to predict, the Saints have given up the 6th most rushing touchdowns on the year.
- The Week 15 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings has Brian Robinson Jr as the RB18, but I’ve got him at RB12 this week, so he’s a smash play for me.
- Sincere McCormick vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said earlier this week that even if Alexander Mattison is cleared to play, Sincere McCormick will still be the starting running back. I think you can start him in your fantasy lineups as well.
- The sample size has been small, but the eye test over the last couple of weeks tells me that McCormick is playing the best football that anyone in that Raiders backfield has played all year.
- The matchup this week isn’t the best. The Falcons have been the 13th toughest matchup for RBs over the last 8 weeks, but McCormick has been over 5 yards per carry in each game he’s played this year, and that includes another tough matchup against Kansas City in Week 13.
- Rachaad White @ Los Angeles Chargers
- As of Thursday Bucky Irving hadn’t practiced yet this week, and if he’s out of course you’re playing Rachaad White. I’m here to tell you that you should play White this week even if Irving IS active.
- White has been surprisingly efficient on the ground the last couple of games, averaging over 5 yards per carry in back-to-back games for the first time all season.
- The Chargers defense is a tough matchup for RBs, but with how well White has played recently, I have to think he will have a solid snap share this week even if we end up seeing Bucky Irving play as well.
Fades
- David Montgomery vs. Buffalo Bills
- It’s never going to feel good fading someone with a role in an offense as good as the Lions has been, but I’m worried for Montgomery this week.
- He’s been great for fantasy, but it makes me nervous how touchdown dependent his fantasy finishes can be some weeks. And while the Bills aren’t a bad matchup for RBs on paper, they’ve given up the 7th lowest amount of rushing touchdowns on the season.
- David Montgomery very well could be in that “start your studs” tier of players, but I would temper expectations this week.
- Najee Harris @ Philadelphia Eagles
- As the RB20 in PPR fantasy points per game so far this season, Najee has had a pretty solid year. However this week he has possibly his toughest test yet.
- The Eagles have been the 2nd toughest matchup for RBs over the last 8 weeks, and have given up the 6th lowest amount of rushing touchdowns on the year as well.
- Considering Najee has only finished as a top 15 RB once this season without scoring a touchdown, it’s hard to see a scenario where he has much upside this week.
- D’Andre Swift @ Minnesota Vikings
- Last week I had Swift in the plays section of this article, citing that his game against the 49ers would be the only plus matchup he would have for a couple of weeks. In that ideal matchup, Swift ended up as the RB36 despite playing his highest percentage of snaps all season.
- Now this week Swift gets to go up against a Vikings defense that’s been the 5th toughest matchup for RBs over the last 8 weeks, and have only given up 7 rushing touchdowns the entire season.
- After how he looked in a good matchup last week, it’s hard to trust him in one of the toughest possible matchups for a RB this week.
Wide Receivers
Plays
- Jakobi Meyers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Calling Jordan Addison a play against this same Falcons defense last week ended up working out pretty well, so we’re going right back too it. Jakobi Meyers isn’t getting quite the same level of QB play that Addison had last week, but there’s still a lot to be excited about.
- I already mentioned the matchup. The Falcons have been the best matchup for WRs over the last 8 weeks, giving up 8.6 fantasy points above expectation to the position.
- With Meyers getting double digit targets in three straight games, that kind of involvement in a matchup like this is something you can still get excited about even if Desmond Ridder ends up being the starting QB.
2. Darnell Mooney @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Darnell Mooney was listed as a play last week as well and he ended up finishing as the WR15, so we’re running it back.
- The good matchups keep flowing for Mooney this week. The Raiders have been the 7th best matchup for WRs over the last month.
- While Kirk Cousins hasn’t looked great recently, Mooney has been targeted at least 6 times in 6 of the last 7 games.
3. DeAndre Hopkins @ Cleveland Browns
- The usage is starting to roll in for DeAndre Hopkins. He’s had 9 targets in back to back weeks, and a receiving touchdown in two out of the last three games.
- This week Hopkins and the Chiefs get a matchup against a Browns defense that’s been the 5th best matchup for WRs over the last 8 weeks.
- With Mahomes’ attempting over 30 passes in all but one game since the Chiefs Week 6 bye, it’s starting to feel easier to trust the Chiefs pass catchers again for fantasy.
Fades
- Courtland Sutton vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Similar to David Montgomery, Sutton is probably in the “start your studs” tier at this point, but I think you should temper expectations this week.
- Sutton and the Broncos have a matchup against a Colts defense that’s been the 7th toughest matchup for WRs over the last 8 weeks, giving up 4 fantasy points below expectation to the position during that time. The Colts have been middle of the pack in terms of terms of receiving TDs given up by their defense recently, but it’s not near as good of a matchup as the Colts defense was to start the year.
- FantasyPros Week 15 ECR has Sutton as the WR14, but I’ve got him down at WR21, so compared to his ranking, he’s a pass for me this week.
2. Jayden Reed @ Seattle Seahawks
- Last week on 4th and Frames my co-host Rhett Manuel nailed it when he said you should pass on Jayden Reed, where he ended up with zero fantasy points and only one target.
- While I don’t think he will put up another zero, I do think there’s another tough week ahead.
- The Seahawks have been the 9th toughest matchup for WRs over the last month, including two matchups against Arizona and a matchup against San Francisco.
3. Khalil Shakir @ Detroit Lions
- It’s tough to sit someone in a matchup that should be as high scoring as this game has the ability to be, but there’s a couple of things working against Shakir this week.
- The Lions have been the 8th toughest matchup for WRs over the last 6 weeks. They’re also giving up the 12th lowest points per game to WRs that line up in the slot, where Shakir has lined up on over 75% of his snaps this year.
- With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid also getting healthier, I don’t think we should be expecting more of what we got from Shakir last week.
Tight Ends
Play
- Jake Ferguson @ Carolina Panthers
- There wasn’t much that came of it, but Jake Ferguson finished second behind CeeDee Lamb in targets for the Cowboys last week.
- Now he gets a matchup against a Panthers defense that’s been the 2nd best matchup for TE’s over the last 8 weeks.
2. Dalton Shultz vs. Miami Dolphins
- After scoring 5 touchdowns last season, Schultz finally found the end zone for the first time all year last week. He’s also had at least 7 targets in two out of the last three weeks as well.
- Now this week he gets a matchup against a Dolphins defense that’s been the 6th best matchup for TE’s over the last 8 weeks.
3. Pat Freiermuth @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Last week with no George Pickens in the Steelers offense, Freiermuth finished as the TE5 on the week, and it’s looking like the Steelers will be without Pickens once again this week as well.
- While the Eagles defense has been really tough recently, the one position they’ve been somewhat vulnerable against has been TE. Over the last 6 weeks they’ve been the 12th best matchup for the TE position.
Fades
- Cade Otton @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Oh, how quickly matchups can change things for TE’s. Last week I had Otton as a play against the Raiders where he ended up as the TE11 on the week.
- This week is a different story, with a matchup against a Chargers defense that’s been the toughest matchup for TE’s over the last 6 weeks.
2. Cole Kmet @ Minnesota Vikings
- Cole Kmet was a fade last week, and he ended up with 0 targets. Might as well run it back, right?
- I’m not expecting 0 targets in back to back weeks, but against a Vikings defense that’s been the 10th toughest matchup for TE’s over the last 8 weeks, I’m not expecting much upside either.
3. Grant Calcaterra vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Have I mentioned that matchups can really affect TE’s that we don’t consider studs? Calcaterra was a play last week in a plus matchup against Carolina where he ended up finishing as the TE9.
- However, this week against a Steelers defense that’s been the 9th toughest matchup for TE’s over the last 8 weeks, he’s a pass.
Plays
- Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
- There’s a decent shot the Raiders are rolling out Desmond Ridder at QB this week, but regardless of who is at QB, the Falcons should be a great streaming option.
2. Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
- This game could end up turning into a shootout, but Levis is usually good for enough bad plays to end up having a good day if you play your D/ST against him.
3. Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Ever since Cooper Rush took over as starting QB, any defense that plays the Cowboys should be considered as a streaming option. The Carolina Panthers are no different.
Fades
- Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
- Not only one of the highest over/unders on the week, but the season? Just say no to the D/ST’s in this game.
2. Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
- See above. Seriously, just stay away.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- While the Steelers have a really strong defense, the Eagles offense has been the 3rd toughest offense for your D/ST to have to go up against. There should be streaming options with higher upside this week.
