Welcome to our Fantasy Football Plays and Fades for Week 14 (2024)! We’re in the last stretch of bye weeks, and injuries are happening everywhere, which makes setting your lineups difficult. This is where we break down matchups to help you find the right players to play and which players to avoid each week.
I want to start this off with some very simple advice – start your studs. I know some guys have tough matchups this week, but I promise you it’s much more painful to lose while your studs go off on your bench than it is to lose with your studs having an off week in your starting lineup. For this article, I will try to stay away from those must-start guys and help you make some of the more difficult lineup decisions.
It’s already Week 14, which, for most leagues, marks the end of the regular season. For those of you fighting for a playoff spot (like myself in several leagues), who you decide to start and sit this week could ultimately decide if your season will continue or not. No pressure.
Before reading any further, I want to point out that I will be referencing schedule-adjusted fantasy points throughout the article while discussing a player’s matchup. This is based on the fantasy points above expectation allowed per game to a specific position. This is essentially the difference between a player’s expected fantasy point value compared to their actual fantasy production. This helps identify just how vulnerable a defense has been against a specific position based on their competition. It better indicates a good or bad matchup than total fantasy points allowed. For example, this week, Saquon Barkley has a matchup against a Carolina Panthers defense that is 32nd among RBs – giving up 8.8 fantasy points above expectation. This means that after adjusting for the running backs that the Panthers have faced, they’ve given up 8.8 more fantasy points than expected, which is the worst in the NFL.
Quarterbacks
Plays
- Will Levis vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Don’t look now, but Will Levis has two finishes inside the top 13 QBs over the last month and hasn’t finished worse than QB20.
- The catchable target percentage is still lower than I would like, and the off-target rate is still a little too high, but he’s been serviceable for fantasy purposes. Over the last month, he’s averaged 240 passing yards per game, almost two passing touchdowns per game, and over five rushing attempts per game.
- Now, he gets a matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that’s been the best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position on the season.
- Aidan O’Connell @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Trust me, I get it. I don’t love the idea of starting Aidan O’Connell this late in the season any more than you do, but you could do worse. After starting for the first time since Week 6, O’Connell was the QB13 in Week 13 in a tough matchup against Kansas City.
- The matchup this week is much easier, facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s been the 3rd best matchup over the last 8 weeks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the QB.
- Betting odds also have this game with the 4th highest over/under on the week, so there should be plenty of points to go around, and O’Connell is fresh off a game last week that saw him with 35 passing attempts. The Raiders won’t be scared to let him throw the ball.
- Russell Wilson vs. Cleveland Browns
- Whenever you’re looking at Russell Wilson on whichever fantasy platform you choose to play on, it will probably tell you he has a tough or moderate matchup this week. But if you step away from the full season picture and look at more recent trends, that’s not the case.
- Over the last five weeks, the Cleveland Browns have actually been the best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
- Coming off his week 13 performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he was the QB4, I’m going right back to Mr. Unlimited.
Fades
- Jameis Winston @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jameis Winston might be my favorite human being walking this planet (and I’m married with two kids), so it brings me no joy to say this, but I’m worried about him this week.
- Winston has been a top-10 QB three out of five weeks since taking over as the starter and was the QB1 overall just last week, so it’s not going to be easy to put him on your bench.
- However, this week, Jameis goes up against a Steelers defense that’s been the toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position over the last eight weeks. This includes a matchup against the Browns in Week 12, where Jameis finished as the QB18.
- Bryce Young @ Philadelphia Eagles
- It’s been really fun watching Bryce Young bounce back after being benched for Andy Dalton earlier this year. After being named the starter in Week 8, Young has had four finishes inside the top 20 QBs, including a season-best QB8 finish last week.
- Unfortunately for Bryce, this week, he’s facing the buzzsaw known as the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense. Over the last eight weeks, the Eagles have been the second toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks.
- Given Young’s limited rushing upside and the fact that he has not thrown for multiple TD passes since Week 8, it’s hard to feel confident starting him with how well this Eagles defense has been playing since their bye week.
- Derek Carr @ New York Giants
- Whenever you see that your fantasy quarterback is going up against the New York Giants, you might think, “Bad team, great matchup,” but that hasn’t necessarily been the case with the Giants.
- Over the last eight weeks, New York has actually been the fourth toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, and a lot of that has to do with how successful teams are running the ball against the Giants. They’ve been the third-best matchup for RBs, and teams consistently find themselves in a positive game script willing to give their RBs more work.
- Last week, Derek Carr threw more passes than he has in any other game this year, and it was still only good enough to be the QB24 on the week. Call me crazy, but I’m just not willing to bet on yet another deep Marquez Valdes-Scantling TD to keep Carr’s fantasy day afloat.
Running Backs
Plays
- D’Andre Swift @ San Francisco
- Even though the fantasy finishes haven’t been there the last couple of weeks, Swift is still the guy in this backfield. Coming out of their week 7 bye and after the Bears traded Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson has had 18 carries, and Swift has gotten the other 88. He’s been the better runner as well, averaging more yards per carry, a higher explosive run percentage, and a higher number of missed tackles forced per attempt.
- Unfortunately, the one place where Swift does lose work is at the goal line, where Roschon has handled over 70% of the carries over the last 6 weeks, so we’re going to need Swift to rack up the yards, and the 49ers have given up the 11th highest rushing yards per game over the last 6 weeks.
- This week, Swift will face the 49ers defense, which has been the fourth-best matchup for fantasy RBs over the last six weeks.
- Isaac Guerendo vs. Chicago Bears
- Staying in the same game, with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both landing on IR, I also like the expected starting running back on the other side of the ball as well.
- You likely had to blow all of your FAAB or burn a top priority to get him on your team, but Guerendo was the hottest name on the waiver wire ahead of Week 14. If you were able to grab him, you should plug him right into your starting lineup.
- In the one game that Guerendo played over 60% of snaps this season, he finished the week as the RB10 after taking 14 carries for 85 yards and a rushing touchdown. He should get a similar workload this week against a Bears defense that’s been middle of the pack against RBs.
- Nick Chubb @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Given the injury he suffered last year, it’s a miracle that Chubb has been on the field in the first place, but for the most part, it hasn’t been pretty. There’s only been one game where Chubb has averaged over 4 yards per carry on the season, and he only has one top-10 RB finish on the year.
- Luckily for fantasy managers, that RB8 finish came just a couple of weeks ago against the same Pittsburgh Steelers defense that Chubb gets to play again this week.
- Over the last eight weeks, the Steelers defense has been the seventh-best matchup for fantasy RBs based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
Fades
- Chuba Hubbard @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Two things worry me about starting Chuba this week: the matchup and Jonathan Brooks’ increased role in the offense.
- Hubbard and the Panthers will face an Eagles defense that’s been the fourth-toughest matchup for RBs over the last six weeks—and that’s including matchups against Baltimore and the Rams most recently, who usually have pretty decent success running the ball.
- And on top of that, Jonathan Brooks played a season-high 21% of snaps in his 2nd game since being activated from IR. Now, that might not sound like much, but they made it a point to get Brooks the ball when he was on the field. He had six carries and another 3 receptions on 3 targets, and he ended up with only 3 fewer opportunities than Hubbard last week.
- Najee Harris vs. Cleveland Browns
- While Nick Chubb might have a good matchup in this same game, I can’t say the same for the RB on the other side of the ball.
- The Cleveland Browns have been the 3rd toughest matchup for fantasy RBs over the last 8 weeks based on schedule adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
- It might be difficult to find a way to bench Najee this week with all of the bye weeks and injuries, but I would temper expectations in this tough matchup. Najee finished as the RB30 just two weeks ago against this same Browns defense.
- Isiah Pacheco vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- After the long-awaited return from IR, Pacheco managers were awarded 44 rushing yards on 7 attempts while playing only 37% of snaps. This can be expected after not playing since Week 2, but I’m not sure we should expect things to be much better in his second game back from injury.
- This week, the Chiefs face a Chargers defense that has been the seventh-toughest matchup for RBs over the last eight weeks.
- Along with the tough matchup, it’s unlikely that Kareem Hunt will just disappear, and Samaje Perine will likely continue to play between 20% and 30% of snaps as well.
Wide Receivers
Plays
- Jordan Addison vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Addison and the Vikings get a Falcons defense that’s been the sixth-best matchup for WRs over the last six weeks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
- They’ve also given up 29.0 fantasy points per game over the last 6 weeks to WRs that line up out wide, which is where Addison has lined up on about 65% of his snaps this season. Now, there’s also this guy named Justin Jefferson who lines up outside even more often, and I’m fully expecting him to get him as well.
- I’m somewhat depending on the fact that Minnesota’s secondary has also been beatable over the last six weeks. If you combine that with the revenge game narrative, I’m hoping we get a much better version of Kirk Cousins this week for a more high-scoring game with more pass attempts for both himself and Sam Darnold, providing enough volume for both Jefferson and Addison to have a solid game.
2. Christian Watson @ Detroit Lions
- It’s been hard to know which Packers WR to trust on a week-to-week basis, but with Romeo Doubs already ruled out for the game against Detroit, that’s one less WR that we have to consider.
- The Fantasy Points Data Suite WR Coverage Matchup tool gives us a couple of different reasons to be optimistic about Watson this week against Detroit.
- Watson has the 5th highest expected matchup fantasy points per route run, which tells us how efficiently we can expect to adjust his actual fantasy points per route run this week based on matchups. Watson also has the highest coverage matchup grade on the week among all WRs, which tells us how much his matchup is worth over his typical fantasy point per route run average.
3. Darnell Mooney @ Minnesota Vikings
- The first 10 weeks of the season Darnell Mooney was having possibly the quietest top 20 fantasy WR season that I can remember. However, after two weeks outside of the top 65 WRs, he’s dropped to the WR35 in fantasy points per game. It’s not quite what we had come to expect, but it’s still a value compared to where he was being drafted before the season.
- I think this is the week things get back on track for Mooney. Based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position, the Vikings have been the fifth-easiest matchup for fantasy WRs over the last eight weeks.
- Kirk Cousins hasn’t given us many reasons to be optimistic about his QB play recently, but in a revenge game against a beatable secondary I’m betting on us seeing a QB closer to what Cousins was to start the season.
Fades
- Keenan Allen @ San Francisco 49ers
- Keenan Allen has been a machine for the last two weeks. 14 total receptions, 159 receiving yards, and 3 TDs. He’s had back-to-back finishes inside the top 5 wide receivers after not having a top 5 finish the entire year up to that point. Unfortunately, I don’t think the trend continues this week.
- I already talked about how I liked D’Andre Swift this week because of how beatable the 49ers run defense has been, but I can’t say the same for the passing defense. Over the last 6 weeks, they’ve been the 3rd toughest matchup for fantasy WRs. While they might not have had to do much last week against Buffalo in the snowstorm, this still also includes tough tests against Tampa, Seattle, and Green Bay during that sample size.
- They’ve been especially tough against slot WRs, giving up only 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last 6 weeks, which is where Keenan Allen has lined up over 55% of his snaps the last two weeks that he’s been a WR1.
2. DK Metcalf @ Arizona Cardinals
- While the Cardinals secondary looked like one that should be targeted early in the year, that has not been the case of late. Over the last 6 weeks, Arizona has been the 2nd toughest matchup for fantasy WRs.
- They’re also only giving up only 14.4 fantasy points per game to WRs that line up out wide over the last 6 weeks, which is the lowest number in the NFL. Would you like to take a guess where DK Metcalf lines up on over 85% of his snaps this year?
- I understand that you’re likely not in a position where you can afford to sit DK. Still, when you combine this tough matchup with the recent emergence of second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I’m tempering expectations for Metcalf this week.
3. Adam Thielen @ Philadelphia Eagles
- If he wasn’t owned before, Adam Thielen likely got picked up in your league after hauling 8 receptions on ten targets for 99 yards with a TD last week against Tampa Bay. While moving him from the waiver wire to your bench is a good idea, the bench is exactly where he should stay for this week.
- I already talked about the hot streak the Eagles defense has been on lately while discussing why I was passing on Bryce Young, and the same applies to Adam Thielen and the rest of the Panthers WRs.
- Over the last 8 weeks the Eagles have been the toughest matchup for fantasy WRs. To make matters even worse, they’re only giving up 8.7 fantasy points per game to WRs that line up in the slot over the last 6 weeks, where Thielen has lined up on over 75% of his snaps this season.
Tight Ends
Play
- Cade Otton vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Once you get beyond Mike Evans, Cade Otton is as good of a bet as anyone to be the 2nd target for the Bucs on any given week.
- Combine that with the fact that the Raiders have been the best matchup for fantasy TEs over the last six weeks based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position, and I feel good about Otton this week.
2. Will Dissly @ Kansas City
- Last week was a weird one for the Chargers offense. Justin Herbert’s 16 completions were his lowest since Week 4, and the Chargers defense’s constant creation of turnovers provided the offense with an opportunity to let their foot off the gas.
- However, prior to last week, Dissly had seen at least four targets for three straight weeks and was the TE7 in Week 11.
- While the Chiefs’ defense has been very stingy on the year, they’ve been vulnerable to the TE position. So far this season, Kansas City has been the third best matchup for TEs based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points given up to the position.
3. Grant Calcaterra vs. Carolina Panthers
- I’m aware that this is gross. This is for the folks that are really down in the dumps this week. I’m talking about bye weeks and injuries beating you into submission type of gross.
- Eagles starting TE Dallas Goedert is expected to miss this week. When he missed four games earlier this year, Calcaterra averaged 3.3 receptions and 40 yards per game.
- Now, with Goedert out, Calcaterra faces a Panthers defense that’s been the second-best matchup for fantasy TEs over the last six weeks.
Fades
- Tucker Kraft @ Detroit Lions
- The Tight End landscape is a brutal one, and I get it if you can’t afford to sit Tucker Kraft this week, but I’m concerned.
- It was nice to see Kraft bounce back with 7 targets and 6 receptions last week after only having 3 total targets the prior two weeks combined, but he still hasn’t finished as a TE1 on the week since Week 8.
- Kraft is now faced with a matchup against a Lions defense that’s been the 3rd toughest matchup for fantasy TE’s on the season.
2. Cole Kmet @ San Francisco
- Remember earlier in this article when I told you about how good the 49ers are against pass catchers that line up in the slot as a reason I was fading Keenan Allen? Would you like to guess where Cole Kmet has lined up on over 60% of his snaps this season? Yup, the slot.
- To add insult to injury, the 49ers defense has been the fifth-toughest matchup for fantasy TEs over the last eight weeks.
3. Dalton Kincaid @ Los Angeles Rams
- After missing last week with a knee injury, Dalton Kincaid was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday of this week, which is a step in the right direction. Despite this, he needs to stay on your bench this week.
- It’s been a forgettable fantasy season for many people’s favorite breakout TE, and I don’t expect things to get any better this week if he does play.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has struggled to cover WRs, but the same can’t be said for TEs. Over the last eight weeks, the Rams have been the sixth toughest matchup for fantasy TEs.
Plays
- New Orleans Saints vs. NYG
- Tommy Cutlets? Drew Lock? Who cares? Fire up the Saints’ defense this week.
2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. DAL
- I’m usually not a big fan of starting a bad defense regardless of the matchup, but Cooper Rush is bad enough for me to ignore that this week.
3. Tennessee Titans vs. JAC
- Mac Jones is back in at QB for the Jaguars, which means they’re back in as an offense we want to target for our D/ST on the week.
Fades
- Green Bay Packers vs. DET
- The highest over/under of the week, and the Lions are at home? No, thank you.
2. Buffalo Bills @ LAR
- 3rd highest over/under on the week and the Rams offense is always a threat to put up points as long as Stafford, Kupp, and Puka have all been healthy.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars @ TEN
- I don’t care how likely Will Levis is to give us a new meme every week, there’s not a matchup out there intriguing enough for me to start the Jaguars D/ST.
