Welcome to Fantasy Football FYI: Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 6!
FYI-Week 6 will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
Kareem Hunt (RB), Cleveland Browns
While making a vid about Chubb, I could easily do one on Kareem Hunt. He ain’t no slouch either. pic.twitter.com/uPE9izlHwp
— Coach Jared Holloway (@Coach_Holloway) October 15, 2022
Through five weeks, Kareem Hunt has to be the best non-elite buy-low RB candidate. This is because we low-key consider him elite. He’s the back that we feel would be the clear-cut RB1 if he were on another team. Nick Chubb’s start to the season is the main reason for this sentiment. The Browns also rank 28th in Pass Play %, with a more conservative approach, while Jacoby Brissett is under center. Despite these factors, Hunt is ranked RB24 and provides a high floor of 9.4 FPTS/G. Chubb’s usage will likely decrease going forward, either by design or injury. He already has 98 rushing attempts, approaching half his total attempts for 2021 (228) and 2020 (190). in 2021 he missed three games and four in 2020, providing opportunities for Hunt to be the lead back behind the League’s 2nd best Offensive Line. Hunt averages double-digit rushing attempts per game with Chubb healthy and has gotten all the RB touches in the passing game. Deshaun Watson’s return and a more challenging schedule rest of the season should mean more creative play-calling and receiving opportunities for Hunt. Hunt’s 9.4 FPTS/G floor will be helpful as your FLEX or even RB2 during the bye weeks.
Chase Edmonds (RB), Miami Dolphins
This isn’t insignificant. Considering Mostert’s injury history, it makes sense to hold onto Chase Edmonds. https://t.co/CTt7UaaDLm
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) October 13, 2022
Chase Edmonds had a terrible game last week against the Jets, with one carry for 0.1 FPTS. Combine that with Raheem Mostert’s excellent game, plus touches for Myles Gaskin, and Edmonds has become a popular drop candidate. Edmonds’ usage has clearly been impacted by the loss of Tua, and I expect him to regain his value upon his return. In weeks 1-4, Edmonds displayed his versatility scoring two touchdowns on the ground and one receiving, averaging 9.3 FPTS/G. This was with Tua and Teddy Bridgewater. In the Week 5 blowout loss to the Jets, 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson failed to spread the field with Hill and Waddle and averaged a measly 4.4 YPA. Despite a negative game script, the Dolphins were forced to keep things out of Thompson’s hand and run Mostert between the tackles. Mostert’s been the high-priority add of late, but the 30-year-old back is injury-prone and hasn’t played more than eight games in a season since 2019. The return of Tua means a return to dynamic playcalling and Edmonds’ fantasy relevance.
Sell-High
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB), Washington Commanders
It’s difficult to cast Brian Robinson Jr. as a sell-high candidate since he just returned from Injured Reserve last week. The idea of supplanting Antonio Gibson as lead back started in the preseason and seemed to have legs as he led Washington with nine rushing attempts to Gibson’s three against Tennessee. In his return, Robinson Jr. only had 22 yards on 2.4 Yards Per Attempt (YPA). This could be chalked up to his 1st game back so let’s look at the production of the Washington rushing attack and Offensive Line. This season Gibson has averaged a mere 3.2 YPA, hasn’t had a 100-yard game and has only topped 50 yards rushing once. He’s done decent work in the receiving game but consistently splits targets with McKissic. Despite Gibson’s poor play, it is unlikely he will be shelved entirely, and the Commanders lean exclusively on Robinson Jr. Even if they do, the Commander’s Offensive Line is one of the worst in the League at 27th and hasn’t shown they can support an RB1. The Commanders are also one of the worst defensive teams leading to negative game scripts for the run game. At best, Robinson Jr. enters a situation where he’s the lead back on a bad offensive team. At worst, he’s in a timeshare. Consider selling high on the fantastic comeback story before the disappointment.
David Montgomery (RB), Chicago Bears
David Montgomery has proven value as a lead back in the League. He’s a lock for 16+ touches and a threat for double-digit FPTS/G despite having one of the League’s worst Offensive Lines and offenses overall. Montgomery seems to be at or near his ceiling, given the Bears’ offensive woes and the emergence of Khalil Herbert. Not only is Herbert (64 carries) eating into Montgomery’s (62) workload, but he’s more efficient and arguably better. Through six games, Herbert averages 6.5 YPA, 4.51 Yards After Contact (YAC), and has 12 runs of 10+ yards, while Montgomery has 4 YPA, 3.27 YAC, and seven runs of 10+. Montgomery gets more usage in the receiving game, but this is negligible as the Bears pass at the lowest rate in the League. Preseason hype plus an early injury has many predicting Monty to lose the starting job. While I won’t go that far, his role as the 20+ carry workhorse is clearly fading rapidly. The Bears have a rough upcoming schedule (@Patriots, @Cowboys, Dolphins) and an even worse end of the season at the fantasy playoffs (Week 14 Bye, Eagles, Bills, @ Lions). Consider selling Montgomery at the peak of his performance and name value
