Fantasy Football FYI: Buy-Low/Sell-High Week 5 (2022)
Welcome to Fantasy Football FYI: Buy-Low/Sell-High!
Fantasy In Frames Editor Jorge Edwards put together an excellent article on Week 5 Waiver Adds. FYI-Week 5 will discuss players you should Buy-Low/Sell-High on to maybe make room for these picks.
Buy-Low
Devin Singletary (RB), Buffalo Bills
As easy as it would be to mention CEH as a buy-low candidate two weeks in a row, I won’t do it. Fantasy In Frames readers come here for in-depth analysis and strategic recommendations, so hear me out. Devin Singletary’s production hasn’t been stellar overall but has increased significantly in the past two weeks. In Week 3, Singletary had 20 touches, including nine receptions for 19.6 FPTS/G. Last week against the Ravens, he had 16 touches for 9.6 FPTS/G in poor weather conditions and where the Bills trailed most of the game. What’s significant about this is the declining usage of Zack Moss and James Cook in the same span. Moss has eight touches in the past two games, while Cook has five, including only one rushing attempt. Also, note that the past two games were close, while the 1st two were blow-out wins.
The bottom line is Moss isn’t that good, and Cook is too inexperienced to be trusted when the going gets tough. Singletary is the guy. Another trend to consider is Buffalo’s gradual decrease in Pass-Play % (PP%) as the season progresses and the weather worsens. The Bills are currently 7th in PP%, throwing 64.7% of the time. Last year Buffalo finished 15th at 59.2%, including a PP% at Home of only 56.6%. It’s worth noting that most teams who finished higher either played in warmer climates or domes or were terrible teams consistently passing to compete. From Week 8 to the rest of this season, Buffalo’s games are either at home or away in cold-weather climates except Week 12 @DET (dome). Under these same conditions last year, Singletary averaged 18.3 FPTS/G from Week 14-18, including six TDs. Grab him dirt cheap.
Rondale Moore (WR), Arizona Cardinals
I love the Rondale Moore as a buy-low candidate or even waiver wire pick-up (19% rostered). Last week in his 1st game back from injury, Moore was on the field for 86% of pass snaps. What’s promising isis his utilization, lining up wide 63% of plays, 34% in the slot, and once out of the backfield for a rush attempt. This versatility will ensure consistent utilization even with the return of Deandre Hopkins and AJ Green (both in their 30s, by the way). Moore will likely play in the slot this year, replacing Christian Kirk. Last season Kirk saw 112 Targets, over 1000yds, and 12.5 Y/Rec last season, meaning Moore should see a healthy volume. Arizona’s pass-first offense (2nd in pass attempts) and PFF’s worst-ranked defense should provide Moore with many opportunities in an offense constantly playing from behind.
Sell-High
James Robinson (RB), Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy-low, sell-high. Sounds easy. The challenging part is letting go of current production on the speculation of long-term gains. That’s what I am telling you to do with James Robinson. Robinson has been amazing to start the season, ranking 12th in RB Fantasy Points per Game FPTS/G, including outbursts of 19.4, 14.8, and 19.1 for the first three games. Week 4 (only 2.9) brought his average down to Earth, which can be credited to terrible weather against a ferocious Eagles defense. What makes Robinson a strong sell-high candidate is how he got his numbers. Week 1 was primarily from two TDs against an awful Commanders D, and Weeks 2-3 were from 20+ plus touches. Travis Etienne out-touched Robinson 9 to 8 last week, and his usage will continue to grow. J-Rob also hasn’t been very efficient, with 3.6 Yards Per Attempt (YPA), excluding the 50-yard run against the Chargers in Week 2. He’s been a great steal at consensus RB42 going late in drafts, but consider selling high for a stud WR like Deebo Samuel or struggling RB1s like Kamara/Cook to pair with your other top draft picks.
Dameon Pierce (RB), Houston Texans
As a die-hard Houston Texans fan, I’m telling you to sell high on Dameon Pierce ASAP; stop reading, find an impulsive league mate and make the deal. I love Pierce as a talent and for the future of the Houston Texans, but this season he’ll be in negative game script on a poor offense meaning his recent outburst is Fool’s Gold. Before Weeks 3 and 4, Pierce only had 3.92 (YPA) and less than ten FPTS/G. Since then, he has put 22.9 and 17.1 against the Chargers and Bears, respectively. The majority of Pierce’s 131yds and 9.4 YPA came on a 75yd TD run executed perfectly by the Texans 18th ranked Offensive Line. Take away this fluke play, and he’s in line with Weeks 1-2 with 56yds and 4.3 YPA. Pierce had a respectable 80yds on 20 carries in Week 3, but this was against literally the worst run defenses in the league in the Chicago Bears. Going forward, the Texans have the 4th toughest Strength of Schedule, including three of the following four games against top ten run defenses (Jaguars, Raiders, and Eagles). Add a Week 6 bye and expect Pierce to underperform expectations. Sell on the hype while you still can.