Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High Week 8
Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 8!
This week we will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
Evan Engram (TE), Jacksonville Jaguars
When buying low, the idea is to catch a player trending up before your opponents do. Evan Engram fits the bill. Engram is ranked TE 16 on the season but 9th in the last three weeks with 8.4 FPTS/G. He is 3rd overall in Targets (23), trailing only Kelce and Kittle, and 5th overall in Yards (176). The focus is on Weeks 5-7, but there have only been three games this season where Engram has seen less than six targets per game which is excellent for the Tight Ends and ranks him 8th at the position. Despite this usage, Engram is only rostered 38% behind popular names with less production, like Kyle Pitts, Dawson Knox, and Pat Freiermuth. The reason for this is the lack of touchdowns. He and Tyler Higbee are the only TE target leaders without TD on the season, which has the opportunity to change given Engram’s situation on the Jags’ offense. The Jags lost four games straight and do not resemble the team that started 2-1, including a 24-0 decimation of the Colts and a 38-10 win against the Chargers. They also traded James Robinson to the Jets to feature a better pass-catching option in Travis Etienne. Closer games and a shift from a ground-and-pound rushing attack should keep Engram in the TE1 tier.
Hayden Hurst (TE), Cincinnati Bengals
Hayden Hurst was already inching into the TE1 conversation but has quickly reached must-start territory with the unfortunate injury to Jamar Chase, who is projected to be out for 4-6 weeks. Hurst was already the 10th ranked TE on the season but has ascended to 7th Weeks 5-7 with 9.9 FPTS/G. His two touchdowns came in Week 4 against the Dolphins and Week 5 against the Ravens when Tee Higgins (7.3 TGTS/G) played injured or was inactive. Hurst, already 8th in Tight End TGT/G, will undoubtedly see more targets with Chase, the 2nd most targeted player in the league with 10.6/G out. It also helps that their next three games are against teams ranked in the bottom half for pass defense (Browns, Panthers, and Steelers).
Sell-High
Zach Ertz (TE), Arizona Cardinals
More often than not, selling high on the Tight End position is comparable to fitting a square peg into a round hole. Aside from the top guys, production is so hit or miss that it takes time to assess fair market value. With that said, I submit to you Zach Ertz. The apparent reason is Deandre Hopkins’ return, which resulted in Ertz receiving only three targets when he averaged 8.2 in the games prior. However, a deeper look reveals that Ertz’s production was declining and that he could have been more productive in the 1st place. On the season, Ertz ranks 3rd in both Targets (52) and Receptions (37), trailing only Andrews and Kelce. Despite the high-volume Ertz only averages (9.8 FPT/G) to their 13.7 and 17.6, respectively. Weeks 5-7 are even more disappointing, where he is still a leader in Targets and Receptions yet is ranked 14th with 7.8 FPTS/G. His production suffers because he has one of the lowest Yards per Reception (8.6) and ranks dead last in Yards After Catch per Reception with a measly 2.8. He’s basically been Kyler Murray’s safety valve under pressure, a role that belongs to D-Hop after receiving a whopping 14 Targets in his 1st game back. Usage will be reduced further by James Conner’s return, Marquis Brown’s eventual return, and Robby Anderson’s addition. These factors are not a guaranteed death knell for Ertz’s top-tier status, but selling high on TEs not named Andrews, Kelce and Kittle requires foresight and a little risk. Consider a scenario this week where you could trade Ertz straight-up for Hayden Hurst or package a 2-for-1 deal to upgrade your starters for the playoffs.
Gerald Everett (TE), Los Angeles Chargers
If you try to sell now, your league mates will think you’re selling solely because of the bye week and are either desperate or uninformed. But you ARE informed! Because you subscribe to Fantasy in Frames, Baby! But seriously, Everett has had a remarkable and unexpected run this season, ranking TE7 overall after going last round in drafts, if drafted. From Weeks 5-7, however, he has plummeted to TE18 averaging only 5 FPTS/G and zero touchdowns. Most view Mike Williams’ injury as increased usage for Everett, but I disagree. Not only do they play different positions, but with an Average Depth of Target of 7.7 and 12.4, respectively, Everett and Williams make two completely different contributions.
A receiver who has already impacted Everett’s production is Keenan Allen, who returned in Week 7. Everett has lined up 41% of the Chargers’ pass snaps in the slot. Week 7 and since Herbert’s arrival, the PPR machine has averaged 73% and 59%, respectively. Allen’s impact on Everett will be similar to that of D-Hop’s on Ertz. Package Everett in a trade before you have to drop him outright.