Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 7!
This week we will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
Allen Lazard (WR), Green Bay Packers
The only thing in a bigger crisis than the Green Bay Packers at the moment is the British political system. Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration, but that’s what a loss to the Jets will do to you. The Packers’ passing attack may have fallen off a cliff quicker than the pound, but one player going under the radar at the moment is Allen Lazard.
After returning from injury, the former undrafted free agent has consistently provided fantasy managers with production. Lazard has immediately become a key piece of the offense in Davante Adams’ absence, seeing 34 targets across his five games. Last week he saw nine targets, a joint-career high. This usage is also turning into solid fantasy production, with four consecutive double-digit games in half-PPR scoring, per FantasyData. As a result, he ranks inside the top 20 in fantasy points per game.
All this comes at a time of turmoil for the Packers’ passing game. Lazard currently ranks as the WR29 in FantasyPros’ rest-of-season rankings. At his current trajectory, it is a mark he should surpass, especially if the whole offense can begin to click. If the Packers don’t bring in another big name (and let’s be honest, it’s the Packers), Lazard will likely remain the number one wide receiver option for Rodgers. His value, at the very least, should last longer than a lettuce.
Allen Lazard vs. man coverage this year:
— Daire Carragher (@DaireCarragher) October 17, 2022
164 yards (9th in NFL)
10 first downs (4th)
3 touchdowns (2nd)
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR), New York Giants
The Giants’ second-round pick in this year’s draft may have only played in one game this year after struggling with injuries earlier in the season, but Wan’Dale Robinson’s stock is clearly pointed up. The rookie saw plenty of fanfare during the offseason and was later named as a starter. In his first game, despite only playing in a quarter of offensive snaps, Robinson saw four targets – turning that into three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. This represented just over a 16% target share.
So why should we be buying after just one game? One word – opportunity. The G-Men entered the 2022 season with one of the weakest wide receiver rooms, a group that has since become even weaker due to a plethora of injuries at the position.
The Giants’ passing attack is something to behold at the moment. With limited wide receiver options, personnel groupings have become increasingly creative with multiple backs and/or tight ends on the field at the same time. The opportunity for a wide receiver to step up is obvious. Robinson seeing immediate usage post-injury is extremely promising, and his production should continue to grow from here as he develops into the offense and becomes healthier.
Sell-High
Gabe Davis (WR), Buffalo Bills
Davis was the subject of endless conversation in the off-season around whether his end-of-season and playoff production were repeatable. So far this season, when he has been fully healthy, the former fourth-round pick has produced for fantasy managers through a series of big, explosive plays. On just 14 receptions in his five games, Davis has already scored four times. And there is a very good reason for this extraordinary stat – the Bills rank first in offensive pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
So why is he a sell high, I hear you ask? My fear here is sustainability. Davis again saw around a 15% target share last week against the Chiefs and has seen just 26 targets so far this year. Therefore, he scored 2.67 fantasy points per target in half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData – the highest amongst receivers with more than ten targets. Banking on this consistently is a risky process.
There is a good chance he continues to produce in this offense, but if I have the opportunity to move to a more consistent producer such as Michael Pittman Jr, I’m willing to pursue it.
Gabe Davis: 4 REC TDs gaining 20+ yards
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 17, 2022
No other player has more than 2👀 pic.twitter.com/QxxDhl4GEn
Juju Smith-Schuster (WR), Kansas City Chiefs
Regression had been coming for Juju. The free agent signing over the summer had his best game as a Chief last week turning his five targets into five receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown – his first for the team. Smith-Schuster has seen around 18% of Mahomes’ targets, but it is clear that the offense continues to run through Travis Kelce, who saw another ten targets last week. Beyond Kelce, it appears that the ball will be spread between the other weapons, and therefore it will be difficult to trust Smith-Schuster on a week-to-week basis. His long touchdown, for example, came on a broken play.
Smith-Schuster has an average depth of target of just 7.9 yards, ranking 68th out of the 79 wide receivers who have seen at least 20 targets this year. Despite high hopes coming into the year, Juju hitting a consistent ceiling appears to be an uphill battle. I’m willing to sell high following his big game last week.
