Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High Week 13
Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 13!
This week we will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
D’Onta Foreman (RB), Carolina Panthers
For Niners fans, Panthers fans, and the Fantasy Football community, the CMC trade Week 7 was one of those “Where were you when…” moments. I was in the Las Vegas airport baggage claim, trying to add D’Onta Foreman off waivers wherever possible. Since then, Foreman has been RB3 in Rushing Attempts (114) and Yards (526), RB9 in TDs (4), and RB10 in FPTS (83.1). He has scored double-digit FPTS in 4 of 6 games, and the two he didn’t were in negative game scripts against legit contenders (Bengals, Ravens). With one of the easiest schedules left in the league, there’s no reason to believe this production will not continue. The Panthers are not tanking. Believe it or not, but at 4-8 they are only one game out of 1st place in the NFC South and could win the Division. Their next four games are all winnable match-ups against teams (SEA, PIT, DET, TB) who also have middling to terrible defenses. The Panthers also have one of the worst QB rooms in the league, resulting in a 53% Pass-Play Percentage (24th) and 20+ carries a game for Foreman. Trade deadlines have likely passed but start him confidently for the rest of your Fantasy season.
Derek Carr (QB), Los Angeles Raiders
In 4 games since Derek Carr completely shit the bed in week 8, he's averaging 277.25 passing yards per game with 9 TDs and 2 interceptions (19.34 fantasy points per game). #Raiders #fantasyfootball
— Mikey – Basement Brewed FF (@BBFFMikey) December 2, 2022
At ADP Consensus QB14, Derek Carr was a mid-tier Sleeper with Bust potential due to inconsistency and inability to run. Through Week 8, he fit the description, finishing as high as QB6, low as QB29, and never within less than five position variance for two weeks in a row. Since then, however, Carr has been the model of consistent production. In his last four games, Carr is QB5 overall, ranking QB4 in Pass Attempts (147) and Completions (93), QB2 in Total Yards (1,109), and tied with Patrick Mahomes for 1st in TDs (9). Carr was already Top10 in Average Depth of Target, but the increase to 37 Pass Attempts per Game has been the difference.
Carr has smash potential in Weeks 14-15 (Chargers, Rams) but a rough Fantasy Playoff schedule in terms of Overall Team Defense (Patriots, Steelers, 49ers). Still, given the Raiders’ Defense, I like his production opportunity. Hopefully, you have one of the elite, high-ceiling QBs on your roster. But heading toward the playoffs, I trust Carr’s floor over other mid-tier QBs like Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers.
Sell-High
Kenneth Walker III (RB) Seattle Seahawks
Ken Walker III is a surefire candidate for Waiver Wire pickup of the Year. Since Rashaad Penny’s injury in Week 5, the ADP Consensus RB37 is currently RB5 in total points and RB7 (sans Breece Hall) in FPTS/G (19.7) ahead of the likes of Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, and CMC. My concerns with Walker III are twofold: Strength of Schedule (SOS) and the Rookie Wall. Since taking over as the starter, Walker has thrived against some of the worst defensive teams in the league while being mediocre at best against others. Against teams in the Bottom Ten in Team Defense (Cardinals 2x, Chargers, Saints), Walker averaged an astounding 20.86 FPTS/G on 5.8 Yards Per Attempt (YPA). However, against the Bucs and Giants, he only averaged 10.95 FPTS on 2.2 (YPA). Expect a significant decline from now on as four of Seattle’s next five opponents (Rams, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets) are Top 8 in Pro Football Focus (PFF) rankings for Team Defense.
The Jets and 49ers are 1st and 2nd, respectively, and face the Seahawks in the Fantasy Football playoffs. The other issue is the Rookie Wall which is the notion that rookie production declines rapidly during the season due to the mental and physical from college to the NFL. On the season, Walker is one of only two rookie RBs in the Top 20 in carries (135). The other rookie, Dameon Pierce, has already hit the wall with only one 20+ carry game in his last five. Walker has 10 and 14 carries in his previous two games, averaging 1.8 YPA. The good news is that the Seahawks are still in the hunt for the NFC West title or Wild Card, so Walker won’t be shut down prematurely.
Allen Lazard (WR), Green Bay Packers
I feel guilty leading you astray when recommending Allen Lazard as a Buy-Low candidate a few weeks back, but I promise I’ll make it up to you if you keep reading. Lazard is droppable at this point in the season. Since Week 9, he has been averaging only 8.6 FPT/G, including less than six FPTS/G in the last three games. On paper, Lazard is still viable as he averaged seven TGTS/G, but his usage on the field makes his production wildly inconsistent. Lazard’s strong suit is his jack-of-all-trades ability to produce Wide or in the Slot. Unfortunately, rookie sensation Christian Watson dominates the Wide and Red Zone targets while Randall Cobb eats away at Slot opportunities.
CHRISTIAN “LEAGUE WINNER” WATSON’S 6TH TD IN HIS LAST THREE GAMES pic.twitter.com/nhqsCXPPbG
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 28, 2022
This is in addition to Romeo Doubs returning from IR and having a chance to return this week. In this context, you are not starting Lazard this week against the Bears. Week 14, the Packers are on Bye, then it’s the Fantasy Playoffs. Drop him for a WR with upside, RB Handcuff, or a 2nd Defense that you wouldn’t start this week but has the best SOS for the playoffs. What was that? I didn’t say Kansas City Chiefs. You said Kansas City Chiefs. *Free tip for my dedicated readers. Thank you, and apologies again for the Lazard Buy-Low😊*