Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High: ROS
Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High: ROS
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For this week’s article, I will give you my thoughts on players whose future performance you can buy into and those whose upside you can sell on going forward through the fantasy football playoffs. Without delay, let’s dive into my Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High: ROS.
Buy-Low
Daniel Jones (QB), New York Giants
The disclaimer for any QB recommendation for the rest of the Fantasy season is that elite QBs (Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, Allen) are automatic plays while we focus on mid-tier options. Daniel Jones is the safest mid-tier QB due to production and schedule. Since the Giants’ Week 9 Bye, Jones is the QB5 in Total Fantasy Points (95.9), QB9 in FPTS/G (19.2), and QB4 in Rush Yds (185). He’s finished QB12 or better in 3 of the last four games. Jones was QB12 two weeks ago against the Commanders, who the Giants play this week. The Commanders have been a solid defense lately yet still allow 1.5 Passing TDs a game (22nd). Jones also had 71 Rush Yds against them, further stabilizing his floor. Jones’s rushing ability, especially in the Red Zone, makes him a legit threat to score double-digit FPTS off his legs alone.
Daniel Jones takes one for himself! #giants pic.twitter.com/YP9BpA5PXK
— Rival Fantasy (@rivalfantasy) December 11, 2022
The Giants’ next two games are in domes and include a Week 16 match-up against the Vikings, who allow the most Passing Yds/G, and the Colts, who have one of the league’s worst Pass Rush. Jones has better match-ups than some of his mid-tier counterparts like Geno Smith (vs. SF) and Jared Goff (@NYJ) and a safer floor than the shiny new toys (Mike White/Brock Purdy) you are considering with the recent slew of QB injuries.
James Conner (RB), Arizona Cardinals
Drafted as RB16 and 28th Overall, James Conner began the season as a starter on the Fantasy All-Megabust Team with an AVERAGE finish of RB32 through Week 5, then sitting out Weeks 6-8 due to injury. Since returning in Week 9, Conner has been RB7 in both Total FPTS and FPTS/G (16.7). He’s finished as the RB20 or better in every game, with three being Top 6 or better. This is due to a renewed commitment to the run, as, since Week 10, Conner has received at least 14 carries a game which only happened once in the nine weeks prior. His running output is also supplemented by his active role in the receiving games, with 4+ receptions per game.
James Conner coming back from the Dead to save Fantasy Seasons pic.twitter.com/FjJ2UtImRM
— Devine Sports Gospel (@DevineGospel) December 13, 2022
The trend of running through the offense through Conner will increase with Kyler Murray’s season-ending injury last week. Arizona is currently 7th in Pass-Play Percentage (61.88%) behind multiple 40+ Attempt games from Murray, a volume McCoy is unlikely to see. The Cardinals’ Fantasy Playoff schedule also match-ups against sub-.500 teams (DEN, TB, ATL), providing the opportunity for positive game scripts for Conner.
Sell High
Nick Chubb (RB), Cleveland Browns
Uncertainty on the Browns’ offense with Jacoby Brissett at QB, plus the presence of Kareem Hunt, played significant roles in Chubb’s descent into the 2nd and even 3rd rounds of drafts. But going into the Browns’ Week 9 Bye, Nick Chubb led the league in Yards (841), TDs (10), and Total FPTS (158). This was done with scant receiving work and Hunt averaging nearly ten Rush Attempts per Game. Since the Bye, however, Chubb’s production has done an absolute 180 as he has fallen to RB17 and is averaging only 11.3 FPTS/G. On the field, his Yards Per Attempt has dropped from a league-leading 5.8 down to 3.8. From a Fantasy perspective, he’s failed to reach double-digit FPTS and finished outside of the Top 20 RBs in the last 3 of 4 games; a feat that only happened once prior.
I am tentatively ranking Isiah Pacheco and Ezekiel Elliott ahead of Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley this week. But man would it be tough to put that into practice with a fantasy season on the line…
— Andrew Seifter (@andrew_seifter) December 14, 2022
Chubb’s decline will undoubtedly continue with the return of Deshaun Watson. The Browns had one of the lowest Pass-Play Percentages (>52%) in the league before Watson’s return, yet this jumped to 64% in only his 2nd game back. In addition to splitting with Hunt, Chubb will continue to lose carries to Watson, who is averaging seven a game which will increase as he gets more comfortable. Chubb is someone most managers feel forced to start in non- and Half PPR but consider being more creative in Full.
Terry McLaurin (WR), Washington Commanders
As with Nick Chubb, managers will start Terry McClaurin regardless of match-up due to target share. And he will definitely be started at home against the Giants after torching them for 105 Yds and a TD on eight receptions in Week 13. However, I encourage those in shallower leagues to consider the following, especially in the Fantasy Semis (@SF) and Finals (vs. CLE). From Weeks 10-13 (Bye Wk 14), Scary Terry has been a Top 10 WR in Targets, Receptions, Yards, and FPTS. Despite this, he only ranks as WR17 primarily due to the terrible play of QB Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is the 2nd worst PFF-rated QB, sandwiched between Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco, who were both benched at 1st opportunity.
His poor play has resulted in McClaurin being boom or bust, finishing inside the Top 15 yet outside the Top 40 twice in the past four games. Besides Philly, this was against the worst Pass Coverages and Team Defenses in the league, as the Texans, Falcons, and Giants all rank Bottom 5. The Commanders have the Giants at home this week, but in a night game at freezing temperatures.
In Week 16, they face a Niners team in San Francisco that is PFF-ranked 4th in Pass Coverage and 9th in Pass Rush. Then they play the Cleveland Browns, who struggle in coverage but have a 6th ranked Pass Rush. Since Heinicke is also the 4th worst QB in the league in Under Pressure situations, I’m taking the under on McClaurin’s Fantasy projections for the Playoffs.