Fantasy Draft Strategy In Non-PPR Leagues
You cannot win your fantasy football league at the draft, but it will set a foundation for your championship run!
With our goal at Fantasy In Frames to help you play fantasy football smarter, we decided to put together a two-part series of articles focusing on draft strategies revolving around the two most common forms of fantasy football scoring: non-PPR and PPR. This article series will give you a head start in researching the type of players that should and should not be sought after in your fantasy football leagues depending on the league’s scoring format come draft day. This week we’re discussing non-PPR drafting.
What is non-PPR scoring?
A few years ago this was called “standard” scoring because it was the typical scoring format for a majority of fantasy football leagues out there. In non-PPR scoring, no points are given to a player for catching the football. Players earn points for yardage gained and TDs or two-point conversions scored.
What is the impact non-PPR scoring has on player value?
Skill positions are affected a little differently in non-PPR scoring compared to other formats. The elite running backs and receivers (WRs/TEs) in fantasy football always tend to overcome any deficiencies that non-PPR scoring has due to high yardage or TD totals. But what about the role players at these positions?
For example, goal-line running backs are more valuable in non-PPR because it is these types of running backs that often find themselves in scoring position which can potentially offset low yardage totals in the running game. On the other hand pass-catching running backs are less valuable in non-PPR leagues because they oftentimes do NOT find themselves in scoring position, and despite the number of receptions earned in the passing game the fantasy points gained from the yardage from those receptions is often not enough to merit enough fantasy relevance from week to week.
Outside wide receivers see a bump in value in non-PPR leagues because they are targeted all over the football field which more often than not leads to more yardage gained and touchdowns scored by that type of receiver. Slot wide receivers and tight ends, on the other hand, see their value decrease in non-PPR because most of their catches are for short-yardage in the middle of the field which, barring a large yards after catch total, results in a negligible amount of fantasy points earned each week by that type of receiver.
Non-PPR vs. PPR Rankings
Below is the top-36 RBs in non-PPR total points scoring from 2020 then on the right side it shows the difference in rank with half-PPR and PPR scoring (dark red is a significant advantage in non-PPR and dark green is a significant advantage in half-PPR and PPR):
The running backs that stood out the most with more value in non-PRR in 2020 were: J.K. Dobbins (11.8% of touches were receptions), Toddy Gurley (11.4%), Jeff Wilson Jr (9.4%), Gus Edwards (5.9%), Darrell Henderson (10.4%), and Adrian Peterson (7.1%). Based on my research, data from the 2020 fantasy football season showed that when an RB had 125+ carries and less than 12% of his total touches were receptions he ranked much higher in non-PPR compared to half-PPR and PPR.
Now let’s look at WR ranking differences between non-PPR and PPR in total points from 2020:
The wide receivers that stood out the most with more value in non-PRR in 2020 were: Chase Claypool (62 receptions, 14.1 yard per reception, 9 TDs), D.J. Moore (66 rec, 18.1 y/r, 4 TD), Nelson Agholor (48 rec, 18.7 y/r, 8 TD), and Will Fuller (53 rec, 16.6 y/r, 8 TD). 2020 data showed that WRs with high yards per reception ranked higher in fantasy points scored in non-PPR compared to half-PPR and PPR because they were able to attain high yardage totals without being penalized for a lack of receptions.
Players To Target in non-PPR drafts this season
Below is a list of running backs and wide receivers that you should target in your non-PPR drafts this upcoming season based on some of the criteria that was mentioned above. Player ADP data is from May 2021 from DLF
RB Nick Chubb: In 2020, Chubb averaged 1.33 receptions per game and 15.8 carries per game. Almost all of his production comes from his elite running. He has averaged 5.3 yards per carry for his career! Chubb averaged 1 TD per game last season. He finished 2nd for most carries of 15+ yards with 14 carries (6.0% rate). This highlights Chubb’s big play and scoring potential.
RB J.K. Dobbins: In Dobbins’ rookie season he only started 1 game but took advantage of his 134 carries for 805 yards (6.0 ypc) and TDs. He only had 1.2 receptions per game. The Baltimore Ravens have a potent rushing offense, and Dobbins should see a significant bump in carries even though his efficiency should go down. Dobbins led the league in a rate of 15+ yards carries with 8.2%! Much like Chubb, Dobbins is an efficient runner with big-play potential, and he could explode with more carries in 2021.
RB Chris Carson: Carson always feels undervalued each season. He had a career-high in receiving yards and receiving TDs last season with 287 yards and 4 TDs. He only had 37 receptions so he is not considered a pass-catching running back but he was able to add 60.7 fantasy points from receiving in 2020 (38% of total points). When he played in 15 games in 2019, 18.8% of his total points were from receiving, so last season seems like an outlier. Carson should continue to dominate on the ground.
RB Damien Harris: Damien Harris is in a crowded backfield in New England, which is why his ADP is so low for a presumed starting RB. If Cam Newton is the starting QB then he will vulture TDs from Harris, but if Mac Jones plays then Harris could dominate at the goal line. Harris is strictly used in the running game and only had 5 receptions last season, which is why he has more value in non-PPR leagues.
WR DK Metcalf: DK Metcalf is a non-PPR role model. In 2020, he was WR5, had the 6th most receiving yards, and 6th most TDs amongst WRs. Among the 28 WRs with at least 70 receptions in 2020, Metcalf at the 2nd highest yards per reception with 15.7 yards (Justin Jefferson had 15.9 y/r). Metcalf had the 3rd high fantasy points per target, 2.1, amongst WRs with more targets than Metcalf. He was 16th in the entire league for most air yards per reception with 21.5 yards. Metcalf is an alpha WR with speed and size so he can have big plays and score a lot.
WR Courtland Sutton: Courtland Sutton tore his ACL in the first game of 2020. The injury is pushing his ADP down because people forget that he finished as the WR17 in 2019 with mediocre QB play. Sutton was 4th in 2019 in end-zone targets with 14, and he had 6 TDs. Sutton is a tall WR at 6’4” so he has a good chance of scoring in the redzone as the team continues to feature him near the end-zone.
WR Mike Williams: Mike Williams finds a way to make every catch look like a top 10 highlight. Williams has been inconsistent for his NFL career, but he scored 10 TDs in 2018 and had 1,001 receiving yards in 2019. He hasn’t had at least 50 receptions in a season yet, but he has a career of 15.1 yards per reception average. If he could find a way to get 65+ receptions he could be explosive! Herbert had a great rookie season and is hoping to develop more going into his second season. This is a contract year for Williams, so maybe there is a chance he gets a bump in targets if he can stay healthy and play more. He is a late-round non-PPR target that won’t cost much so he is worth the risk.
Conclusion
As with any fantasy football league you play in it’s always important to know the scoring settings for that league and to tailor your draft strategy to those settings. For more information about which players rank higher or lower in non-PPR stay tuned to our rankings page over the course of the summer as we get you ready for draft season. Also follow myself and the rest of the Fantasy In Frames crew on Twitter to learn about more ways to help you play fantasy football smarter.
Come back next week as we cover PPR draft strategies for your fantasy football leagues!