4-EYED MARKET WATCH AT TIGHT END
“Sure Jorge, Ill take Tight Ends”. Poor choice, if I may say. The Tight End position in fantasy is hit or miss, and by that you hit good or you miss badly. Some of my risers may seem surprising, but for this article I want you to keep in mind I am going purely for value and ceiling. Not every Tight End can be a TE1, and the bottom half of that TE1 category can be unpredictable, so I am trying to help you find respectable Tight Ends at a good value.
RISER 1- CHRIS HERNDON, NEW YORK JETS- I did say surprising, if you recall. Why Herndon? Well, after your top Tight Ends- Kelce, Kittle, Andrews and Hockenson, pickings start to get slim. With a new Head Coach in Robert Saleh and likely a new Quarterback as well, the entire Jets organization is looking to start over, and that includes Herndon.
Herndon is a big (6-4, 253 LBS) and physical Tight End, and Saleh brought in former 49ers Passing Game Coordinator Mike LaFleur to run the Jets offense. Why is that a good thing? LaFleur spent time learning under Kyle Shanahan, and that tells me more involvement for Herndon (and LaMical Perine). If the Jets offense is as efficient as the 49ers were, you can expect Herndon to push at LEAST TE2 category. Offer up some mid to late Rookie 3rd round draft picks for him and watch to see if it pays off.
Through his 3 years in the league, Herndon has battled numerous injuries, a suspension, and poor coaching topped with inconsistent Quarterback play. That has led him to only put up 71 receptions (103 targets) for 796 yards and 7 touchdowns in 33 games. If he can get that production in this season alone, that would put him roughly somewhere in the TE6-8 range. Cut those numbers in half, and you have a player creeping up on a low end TE1.
RISER 2- IRV SMITH JR, MINNESOTA VIKINGS- Can we just get Kyle Rudolph out of town already? Last season Rudolph finished as TE41 with 28 receptions (37 targets) and 334 yards (1 TD) in 12 games played. On the other hand, Irv Smith finished as TE21 with 30 receptions (43 targets) and 365 yards (5 touchdowns) in 13 games played. Both Tight Ends missed some time; Rudolph 4 games with a foot injury, and Smith 3 games combined with back/groin injuries.
Take Rudolph out of the mix and give 75% of his targets to Smith, and what you have is a player approaching TE1 range. My only concern is Kirk Cousins has been tied to some trade rumors, so use the uncertainty of the Quarterback position in Minnesota to but the young but athletic Irv Smith at a discount.
FALLER 1- JONNU SMITH, TENNESSEE TITANS- This may seem like an odd fit given how efficient the Titans offense is. But let’s consider a few things here. First, Arthur Smith (former offensive Coordinator) is now the Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Secondly, the Titans are not a pass heavy team. Ryan Tannehill only attempted 481 passes this passes season, his lowest as a 16 game starter (NOTE: he did have less attempts in other years, but they were not a full 16 game season). The Titans offense ranked 30th in terms of pass attempts per game with 30.1, ahead of only New England (27.5) and Baltimore (25.9). And third, he is very touchdown dependent.
Last season Jonnu finished as the TE10 overall in .5 PPR scoring, but did so with only 41 receptions in 15 games played. Let’s look at the players directly above and below him. The TE9 was Hayden Hurst who had more receptions (56) but less touchdowns (6 to Jonnu’s 8 receiving and 1 rushing). At number 11 was CHI TE Jimmy Graham. Again, more receptions (50) and the receiving touchdown’s were the same (8), but Jimmy had no rushing statistics to add to his line.
All this points to why Jonnu is, to me, a faller. In June 2020 startup ADP, he was taken as the TE11, so he actually did pay off, but if you had waited a few rounds later you could have gotten similar talent and had similar results. Mike Gesicki was being drafted as the TE12 and finished as the TE7. Similarly, Rob Gronkowski was being drafted as the TE20 and finished as the TE8. Low passing volume and a high ADP is a no go for me.
FALLER 2- ZACH ERTZ, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- As an Eagles fan, this one hurts. But all good things must come to an end, and that is likely here for both Ertz and Carson Wentz. For now we will stick to Ertz. In what is a forgettable, injury plagued year for Ertz, he managed to only account for 36 receptions (72 targets) 335 yards and 1 touchdown in 11 games played. Absolutely abysmal considering at times he was considered a top 5 fantasy Tight End. Looking deeper into his metrics, he only accounted for 4.7 yards per target and 0.92 yards per route run. Was it the offense, or injuries? In 2020, he missed 5 games with a high ankle sprain and didn’t look the same after returning.
Finishing as TE32 overall last year, Ertz no longer has the ability to get open or snag extra yards after the catch. I would especially be low on him if he stays in Philadelphia and plays with Jalen Hurts, but if the rumors are true and he goes to Indianapolis with Carson Wentz, I would value him slightly higher, but his days of top tier fantasy production appear to be behind him.