4-EYED MARKET WATCH AT RUNNING BACK
Embarking on my first dynasty article of the offseason, so let’s get this out of the way early.
When it comes to dynasty, there are multiple strategies you can go with, therefore just to get it out of the way now, my strategy to succeeding at playing dynasty revolves around winning NOW. Age, for example, is obviously something to think about, but I don’t think it needs to be super valued above all else like some people like to think it does in dynasty. You don’t have to overthink things and only play guys that are under 26. Don’t trade away Derrick Henry for Cam Akers just because Akers just wrapped his first season. For my articles in this series, I am going to impart some stats, thought processes, and determinations that are going to help you win in the short-term because playing the long con in dynasty can burn you now and later.
Welcome to the 4-EYED Market Watch for Running Backs!
Risers
- JD McKissic (WFT)
Boom. A bombshell from the jump in this article.
Like I said, I don’t care as much about age as I do for a guy that finished as the RB24 in .5 PPR scoring yet who had an ADP in redraft as RB77. He finished with RB1 status, folks! McKissic gets the extra boost from his involvement in the passing game, and I want to start off by making two very quick points about this:
1) They had a revolving door for the WFT throwing him the ball, and
2) He LED the LEAGUE in targets for a RB in 2020.
You know that Alvin Kamara guy that was the RB1 in .5 PPR scoring in 2020? He didn’t have as many targets as McKissic this season (110 for McKissic, 107 for Kamara). Even if you want to get particular and break it down to receptions, Kamara had 83 to McKissic’s 80. Sure, McKissic is part of a backfield split, but he played at least 41% of snaps and was third on the team in rushing attempts (85), but second on the team in targets (110).
McKissic is going to be entering the final year of his two-year deal with the WFT and they know one of their glaring needs is a QB. And after all, the need at QB only emphasizes the role the running game should play in an offense going forward this coming season.
Also, don’t overthink this advice despite Antonio Gibson being there as the lead back with his RB12 performance on the season. This offense can sustain enough value for both. And I’m not saying you should give up the world for McKissic. I’m saying that based on his being a backup, he would probably be cheap and I think he could return a ton of value.
2. Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF)
Welcome back @jeffwilsonjr!
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 26, 2021
Somebody just got PAI…well not really paid, but he is still employed so that’s something, right?
Yes, this backfield is a cluster you know what. While Raheem Mostert should be the lead back, don’t underestimate Jeff Wilson’s potential upside. While only playing in 11 games, Wilson finished as RB30 in .5 PPR scoring while being drafted in redraft leagues as RB99. Down the stretch of the final four games of the season, Wilson had a rushing touchdown in three out of the four games and in that game he didn’t score on the ground, he ran for 183 yards and also had a receiving touchdown.
Furthermore, in 2020 for the 49ers, Wilson led the team in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. Wilson, however, wasn’t the top receiving back for the 49ers, Jerrick McKinnon was. That being said even with being ninth on the team in targets and 11th in receptions, he finished with the fourth-most receiving touchdowns on the season. If for some reason the 49ers don’t bring back McKinnon, Wilson could be in line for a larger target share. In that final four-game span by the way, Wilson had a 47% average snap count in the first two games, but then that jumped to 76% average snap count for the final two games of the season.
With a potentially less crowded backfield, in a contract year year where he needs to prove it, and with a very injury prone Mostert in front of him, I think Wilson could be a sneaky buy this offseason. Oh and for you dynasty diehards, he is 25 years old.
Honorable Mentions: James Robinson (JAX), D’Andre Swift (DET), Myles Gaskin (MIA), and Antonio Gibson (WFT)
Fallers
- Miles Sanders (PHI)
I know it is going to look weird for Miles Sanders to fall here especially since he finished higher than my two “Risers” at RB23. Here’s the difference: my “Risers” outperformed their pre-season rank and ADP by at least 53 spots. Sanders, on the other hand, was RB10. He still finishes the year as an RB1 technically, but the haul that would’ve taken to get him may not have paid off. If you were in redraft or a startup dynasty league, he was probably a first round pick, when he could’ve been back end of the second or beginning of the third.
Sanders had six TDs in the 12 games that he played, and none of them were through the air. The lack of involvement in the passing game is a concern when looking at his first and second-year comparisons. Sanders broke out in 2019 as a rusher and even in the receiving game he was their best option on the team among running backs. That being said playing in four fewer games in 2020, Sanders had 11 fewer targets, 22 fewer receptions, and three fewer receiving TDs. I know he missed some time, but that is still quite the drop-off from what was expected of him going into the 2020 season, especially when it pertained to the drop in projected targets. Also, I don’t know how much weight you should put on fumbles, but in his 12 games in 2020, he was tied for the third-highest fumble total in the league for RBs.
In his rookie year, Sanders totaled 1,427 yards and six touchdowns and in 2020 he had 1,064 yards and six touchdowns. I think that somewhere in the middle, lies Sanders’ projections for the future, and I think his value now has been hurt by being overhyped going into 2020. Sell him on name value for a solid package or some early rookie draft picks.
2. Philip Lindsay (DEN/FA)
When Melvin Gordon was signed in the 2020 offseason, Philip Lindsay’s fantasy value took a hit from the jump. It didn’t help that when Gordon couldn’t get going at various points throughout the season, neither could Lindsay. Any attempt to steal back more playing time was squandered by the lack of quality in Lindsay’s performances.
In his 11 games, Lindsay had more than 38 rush yards, only four times. He didn’t help make up any slack in the receiving game either because he only had seven receptions on the SEASON. He only played more than 40% of team snaps in four games. On third down, Lindsay totaled five rushes for 3 total yards and a target that he didn’t catch. He was the clear back-up in this offense in 2020
Lindsay was ranked as RB42 but finished as RB65 after playing in 11 games and rushing 118 times for 502 yards and a TD. Lindsay is a restricted free agent in 2021, but if he comes back to Denver he will still be in a backup role that won’t help his fantasy value. And even if he goes elsewhere, he hasn’t done enough to merit being the lead back anchoring an offense, so he will probably be relegated to being a backup no matter where he goes which will also tank his fantasy value.
To be honest, I don’t even know what you could get for Lindsay in terms of trade, but if he does go to a new team, use that hype to move him, or you may just need to free up the roster spot as you go into 2021.
Dishonorable Mentions: Todd Gurley (ATL), James Conner (PIT), Jamaal Williams (GB)