As the 2020-2021 NFL season has come to an unfortunate end, it’s time to take a look at some pre-draft QB movement in terms of dynasty value heading into 2021.
While some of the young arms in the league are seeing a Gamestop stock type rise, there are others that are beginning the descent into mediocrity. Contrary to the Gamestop correlation, these young QB’s dynasty value should remain relatively stable with some slight shifting in ADP with one exception this season. It is important to note that with such a volatile offseason in the making and the draft around the corner, things could change in a hurry!
With that being said let us dive right in…Welcome to our 4-EYED MARKET WATCH for Fantasy Football!
Risers
Justin Herbert
Despite his finish over the past 4 weeks of the fantasy season (weeks 13-16), where he averaged 17 fppg on 5TD’s and 3 INT’s, Herbert did finish as the QB10 on the season. While his finish hopefully isn’t what fantasy drafters should remember entering their draft, there could be a buying opportunity!
Sure, there is uncertainty with the new coaching regime in Los Angeles, but given a full offseason as the starter, he should be more than ready to exceed expectations in 2021.
What can we expect out of his asking price? Hopefully you find yourself in a room full of “look how he finished” or “new system, new concerns”! Most likely, his asking price will be high, but given the potential long-term output, and “set in and forget it” type QB over the next 5+ years, Pay Up!
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield absolutely carried a significant amount of people to the fantasy promised land this past season, the Fantasy Championship. Unfortunately, if you played him in Week 16, you may not be in such a great mood. Remember, one game does not dictate the success of a season. If you look at Weeks 12-15, Mayfield had a 10:1 TD:INT ratio and added a rushing TD for good measure. Over that span, he was the QB3 and looked the part of the 1st pick overall from 2018.
Cleveland’s offense as a whole looks like they can compete in any matchup! It’s apparent that Stefanski felt comfortable with the maturation of Mayfield, enough so to take the “training-wheels” and let Baker command this offense! This move by Stefanski absolutely paid off for the offense, but most importantly, paid off for Baker’s psyche!
His top receiving option, Jarvis Landry, will return in 2021 and a “hopefully” healthy, OBJ should start opposite him. While there are many rumblings that either or both could be dealt, I think there is a chip on their shoulders after the devastating loss to the Chiefs.
The most important element to a good passing game, is a good running game, and the Browns have that in spades! This running game has led to Mayfield’s comfort in the pocket, and definitely less stress and duress.
From a fantasy perspective, there is nothing fundamentally changing in Cleveland on offense. This has led to me believing in the continued growth and success of Mayfield.
Fallers
Ryan Tannehill
Those of you who know me and my work over the past year(s), know about my obsession with Ryan Tannehill. Therefore, you must be wondering why, despite back to back QB1 finishes as Tennessee’s starting QB, I am considering him a “faller” in dynasty? For starters, two of his trusted receiving weapons in Corey Davis & Jonnu Smith might be leaving in free agency. This leaves a lonely A.J. Brown, unless you consider Cameron Batson a viable complement. Are you done looking up Cameron Batson, ok? As I was saying, a LONELY A.J. Brown. This could, and should, change in the offseason via FA or in the Draft.
In 2020, Davis, Brown, and Smith accounted for over 700 snaps each at WR and TE. The next highest WR, yes, Batson…with 283. What this means is that if the Titans do not bring back Davis and Smith, Tannehill is going to have to shoulder the load on offense, unless he wants to simply become that “hand it to Henry” guy. If this is the outcome, it is unfair to assume an outcome anything close to the past 26 games with Tennessee.
THAT BEING SAID, if you are able to buy him now on the super cheap, AND the Titans bring back all of their weapons, then you possibly secured a QB1 at a big bargain cost.
Jared Goff
Welp….it goes without saying that moving from a high-powered offense in L.A., to one with so many question marks in Detroit cannot be good for a one’s fantasy value, regardless the format. It’s also pretty safe to say that Goff wasn’t exactly on anyone’s wish list, considering it took the amount of draft capital that L.A. had to give up just for Detroit to take him and his woeful contract.
In Detroit, with his top two receiving options, Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones, potentially leaving Motor City in 2021, the grass being greener might not be accurate in this case. The only foundational pieces left are in D’Andre Swift (RB) and T.J. Hockenson (TE).
What chance does Goff have to soften the landing on this freefall of value? Quintez Cephus? WR help in the draft? Not exactly a rosy outlook for the former SoCal standout.
The hiring of Anthony Lynn as OC is the final red flag for Goff’s dynasty value. Lynn’s bread and butter as an OC has been his ability to mold a strong running attack, evidenced by his work with LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon. Something tells me that he was brought in to help new HC Dan Campbell establish a running game, and not to fix a reclamation project at QB.