The next installment of our 4-EYED MARKET WATCH series here at Fantasy In Frames is going to be covering linebackers. I have begun to dip my toes into the world of IDP and so I will be providing you with my insight and reasoning for why I like/dislike certain players over others. For those that are established in the IDP (Individual Defensive Player) world, or if you are new to it, here are two players that I believe will be rising in value and two that will be falling as we head into the 2021 fantasy football season.
Risers
- Neville Hewitt (New York Jets)
Set to become a free agent in 2021, Neville Hewitt’s dynasty value is slowly creeping to a “slight” halt after rising from his performance from the 2020 fantasy football season in which, using FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring, he finished as the LB14 in total fantasy points scored (199) and LB19 in fantasy points per game (12.4) Playing 99.2% of snaps (1,130 snaps total) in 2020, Hewitt was the LB4 in solo tackles with 91 and LB4 in total tackles with 134. Much like another linebacker who left the Jets a few seasons ago for brighter pastures, Demario Davis, Hewitt is a hashtag tackle machine stud, #TackleMachine. Wherever he lands he will be worth the price of admission, and since he isn’t a household name, chances are you’ll be able to get a discount on his services this upcoming season.
2. Jerome Baker (Miami Dolphins)
For all you age-truthers in the dynasty world, Jerome Baker is 24 so this should appease you all. Baker is coming off of his third season in the league, so he will be playing for that all-important 2nd contract in the upcoming season. The 3rd round player out of Ohio State finished as the LB16 this year with 189.50 fantasy points using FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring rubric & was the LB18 with 262 fantasy points in #IDP123 scoring. In 2019, Baker didn’t crack the top 24 in total points scored in any format. Needless to say, his value is on the rise.
The Dolphins love blitzing Baker as he had the sixth-highest number of blitzes in the league which resulted in his tallying seven sacks. Baker finished 29th overall in the league in combined tackles with 112 (70 solo, 42 assist), and added two forced fumbles. Baker led the Dolphins in tackles and finished second on the team in sacks.
Pick him up soon before his value gets too pricey this offseason!
Honorable Mentions: Dre Greenlaw (49ers) and Troy Reader (Rams)
Fallers
- Khalil Mack
This is one of those cases where household names are overvalued. Mack has been a dominant player in the past, but if you looked at his stats for this season, you would be shocked to learn that he played in all 16 games. Drafted as the LB17 according to MFL’s ADP for 10-team leagues in redraft, Mack finished the season as LB42 in FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring & LB48 in IDP123 scoring. As he enters his age 30 season, he is looking less and less like the ferocious Raider defender many remember him as.
This season, Mack did have a team-high nine sacks, but he totaled just 50 combined tackles (29 solo, 21 assisted). While his nine sacks are solid, when you look at his career it was his third-lowest sack total in a single season. The reason he is trending downward is that this season wasn’t an outlier since joining the Bears. In his three seasons with the team, he is averaging 30 tackles fewer than on the Raiders. His 50 tackles this season were his most since joining the team, but he also logged the fewest solo tackles of his career, as well as his fewest number of forced fumbles. Is he still a good player? Yes. But is he going to return the value that is expected of him with where he is being drafted? Nope.
2. Cory Littleton (Las Vegas Raiders)
Cory Littleton is heading into his sixth overall season, but it will be his second with the Las Vegas Raiders. Littleton was taken as the LB8 according to MFL, but finished outside the top 70 in IDP123 scoring and was LB72 in FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring after playing in 14 games this season. Littleton finished second on the Raiders in tackles, and while he helped the team in real-life football, his fantasy football relevance was basically non-existent.
Littleton tallied his lowest tackle total in the last three seasons with 82 combined tackles (56 total, 26 assist), but failed to tally a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery, interception, pass deflection, or even a hit on the QB. The only other defensive stat he accumulated were four tackles for loss. Plus, it wasn’t like he wasn’t on the field. In 11 of the 14 games he suited up for, Littleton played at least 98% of defensive snaps, and for the other three games when he was dealing with injury, he played at least 54%. Littleton probably won’t have the name recognition that Mack does, but don’t let yourself be the one to overdraft him next season.
Dishonorable Mentions: Leighton Vander Esch (Cowboys), Kwon Alexander (Saints)
