Dynasty Fallers At Tight End (2022)
Today, we continue our Risers and Fallers series looking at the dynasty fallers at tight end heading into the 2022 fantasy football season!
What Is a Faller?
Maybe I sort of cheated (was innovative?) when I wrote my dynasty quarterback risers article and my dynasty tight ends risers article, by using two different definitions of a “riser.” it became a thing others used in their articles in our risers and fallers series, but only the risers writers. So I will be the pioneer and bring semantics and hedging to the world of fallers. I will cover tights ends that have already fallen and ones that could fall. You’re welcome.
Disclaimers
As I said in my tight end risers article, fewer tight ends play than do running backs or wide receivers. Therefore, there are fewer fallers one could identify, leaving maybe only maybe a few obvious So in this article, I will address both “has fallen” tight ends and “could fall” tight ends, but I may have a name or two you were not expecting, Maybe I’m trying to push your thinking, maybe I’m trying to make writing about tight ends easier, maybe both. So let’s have some fun…
But first, one more note: The trade values I discuss below are based on a tight end premium format of at least + 0.5 pts , since that is pretty much all I play, and that is what most dynasty leagues use.
Those who have fallen…
Jonnu Smith
This one hurts. I was not ever really “truther” level with Jonnu, but I was on board this train for sure. For a few years, the narrative was simple: great breakout age, athletic, did good things when he got the ball – he just never got it enough. Then, in 2020, Jonnu hit career-high marks in targets (65), receptions (41), yards (448), and touchdowns (8) as he was heading into free agency. This was it. it was going to be Jonnu time. He got a big-money deal with the Patriots, who also signed Hunter Henry. We were optimistic – they will get a good quarterback and we will see some semblance of the Gronk-Hernandez duo of old; everything’s going to be OK..right?…right?
Then the 2021 season came, and Jonnu disappeared. Henry became the clear TE1 and preferred target of rookie Mac Jones. Jonnu cold only muster 28 catches for 294 yards and 1 single touchdown. It appeared “Jonnu szn” was not to be. How much did he fall? For reference, his January ’21 positional ADP in DLF was TE13. Between then and November ’21, Jonnu did not dip below TR17. Once his lost year seems apparent, his ADP declined, and he is now at TE23. I am not as generous. I have him at TE33 at the time this is being written in my dynasty rankings.
Things are not looking up, either. Henry is not a free agent until 2024, the last year of Jonnu’s contract. Mac Jones has a low ceiling, and it is pretty likely the team will add a WR who is better than the likes of Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. None of these issues bode well for Jonnu.
On a “Dynasty Valentines” episode of a non-Fantasy In Frames dynasty podcast I co-host, I chose Jonnu as one of my “break-ups.” There could always be a turnaround; he is a talented player on a pretty good team with a competent quarterback. But I am not banking on that. I am done. The good news is that if you want to roll the dice and gamble on his talent, he should not cost much. As a seller, I would ask for two 3rds first, and be prepared for the other manager’s high offer to be a 3rd and a 4th. That might not be enough for me; he might be a hold at that price. But if I am truly breaking up with Jonnu, I will need to move on.
Evan Engram
I suppose it is kind of tough to call Evan Engram a recent faller since he has been a disappointment for a while and expectations for him were not high going into 2021. The feeling was always that Engram had lots of athleticism, but just never put together a season we would expect from him since a solid 2017 rookie campaign. He did have a bump in some stats in 2020 (63-654), but he only managed one touchdown. Either way, we did not see much reason for optimism with Engram for 2021, and our low expectations were about right. Engram did see the end zone three times, but he was back down to 46 catches for 408 yards on a very bad team.
Sudden fall or steady fall, Engram is a faller for me. I have just about given up on him figuring it out, and he is down to TE25 for me at the time this is being written. His positional ADP with DLF was as high as TE8 on January ’21, and now sits at TE18 per the latest DLF data of January ’22. Mangers who sold right after the 2020 season made out well.
It should be noted that some in the dynasty community have optimism for Engram at the moment. He is an unrestricted free agent who might just be a guy who could use a change of scenery. If that scenery was the Chargers, Engram is a “has fallen,” but also now a “could rise.” The Chargers could use a tight end and they currently have the third-highest cap space, at over $56 million. Tie Engram to Justin Herbert and an actually competent offense, and now he might be interesting. I personally would not be making the speculative buy at the meanest, but I don’t hate it as an idea. His name value and athleticism could mean the Engram manager in your league might need more than I would pay, but would maybe a late 2nd and a 3rd do it? I think as a seller, I would be trying to leverage the free agent optimism in my ask, but it could be easy to scare someone off given Engram’s uncertainty. I might take that late 2nd and a 3rd.
Honorable(?) Mentions:
Those who could fall…
Darren Waller
I am guessing folks disagree with this one. You would say Waller is a great athlete and a target machine, and that any negativity I have is because he was banged up this year and was sort of out of sight, out of mind. You might also remind me that even with missing six games, he managed to go 56-655-2, better than a number of tight ends who played all 17 games. Those are fair points and I do not think I disagree with them. So I suppose I should make my case, right?
Age does not matter as much for tight end as it does for some others. Some of that may come from the fact that tight ends sometimes break out later than running backs or wide relievers. Still, Waller does turn 30 in September, and even if tight ends do not hit the cliff as soon as others, 30 is still 30. The body does not recover as quickly or hold up as well. We could start to see a (slowish) decline for Waller soon
But even if I am being too ageist here, there are a couple of other concerns I have with Waller. it was easier to guarantee Waller would be pretty much the only fantasy-relevant pass catcher on the team in previous years, With the late breakout for Hunter Renfrow, the increased usage of Josh Jacobs as a receiver, and the likelihood the Raiders add a solid wide receiver through the draft or free agency, Waller’s volume could very well decrease – and so much of his value in the recent past has been based on that volume.
Finally, Waller’s drop from being no-brainer top 3-4 tight end to my current ranking of TE7 is probably a bigger deal than it seems, but is influenced by other tight ends rising in my rankings – someone has to slide down when others are climbing. As guys like Knox, Freiermuth, Kmet, Jordan, and Gesicki keep getting better, the consensus value on a guy like Waller will get lower.
Waller’s positional ADP on DLF only went from TE3 to TE5 between November ’21 and the present, so my concerns about him are not widely shared it seems. I hope I am wrong, but right now, for me, Waller is a guy I would be oK with trading early rather than too late. The good news is if you do try to get ahead of a possible decline, you can still get a good return for him, but you might want to wait until we get closer to the season when the positive reports and workout videos start coming out. You might still be able to get a late first-rounder involved.
A Variety Pack
I thought of several more possible fallers, and II had difficulty picking just one. So I will name a few here and just give quick hits on each.
Dallas Goedert – I am a fan, and he does command targets – but if Hurts remains in Philadelphia, and/or they bring in another good receiver, we could maybe see a decrease in production for Goedert.
George Kittle – Am I reaching here? Maybe. But consider the following: 29 in October, style of play more conducive to injury, has ghost games when they use him to block more, arrow up on Mitchell and Debo, Lance could be less than we expect/want.
Pat Freiermuth – Yes, I used him as an example of someone who could keep rising in my Darren Waller section, but a dip might happen, too. Who will be the quarterback? Will he keep scoring a high rate of touchdowns? Will that make him touchdown-dependent?
Dalton Schultz – This one is simple. He is a free agent, and what if he lands in a spot that is not favorable for his fantasy production?
TJ Hockenson– I am a big fan and love his upside. However, he is still tied to Goff, and any rookie they bring in in the next couple of years will probably have to hold the clipboard for a while. Also, it remains to be seen what a healthy Hock, a healthy Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown look like together – and the Lions could very well add another good wide receiver to that mix. All this could mean a good offense that “lifts all boats,” or it could mean competition for opportunities.