Sup, 4-EYEDfans!
Today, we’re going to be looking at the dynasty market value of defensive linemen after the 2020 fantasy football season. Now before we go further, let me remind you that when talking about IDP fantasy points we’ll either be talking about FantasyPros and/or IDP123 scoring settings when using the Sleeper HQ app. Click here to be redirected to my previous article explaining why it is best to use the Sleeper HQ app for your IDP leagues, IMO.
Also, as a refresher, here is the FantasyPros IDP scoring rubric:
and the IDP123 scoring rubric:
The value of defensive linemen is a highly contested one in the IDP community. Some say since there are very few elite linemen with high fantasy point floors you should invest early draft capital on getting one of those pass rushers before they’re all gone. Other individuals argue with the advent of the EDGE rusher position in fantasy, where some outside linebackers have dual eligibility as defensive linemen, you are better off punting the defensive lineman position, investing your earlier draft picks in high-end linebackers & defensive backs, and then coming back later in your drafts and drafting middle-tier linebackers with dual eligibility as defensive linemen. What’s the rationale for that? It’s that their tackle numbers should offset any deficiencies they might have applying pressure to quarterbacks, i.e. the lack of sacks or QB hits. Since both arguments having their merit, I’ll be discussing players that fit into both the “DL ONLY” and “DL & LB” categories.
So without further aidue, lets get this show on the road!
Risers
Da’ron Payne (DL only)- Washington Football Team
It’s not often defensive tackles are listed as being viable fantasy options in IDP. That role is typically reserved for defensive ends. However, despite being the DL33 in FantasyPros IDP scoring, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game, Da’ron Payne showed tremendous strides down the stretch of the fantasy football season in 2020. Just look at his fantasy point performance splits from last year.
Weeks 1-8: 5.3 fppg
Weeks 9-16: 9.2 fppg
What was responsible for this statistical jump?
According to PFF, his ability to make positive plays in which opposing offenses suffered a loss on a running play rose from 8.4 % in weeks 1-8 to 11 % in weeks 9-16. His forced fumbles doubled, his tackles for a loss tripled, and his total tackles increased from his 23 in weeks 1-8 to tallying 31 during weeks 9-16.
So what do we attribute this increase in fantasy and real life performance to?
To put it bluntly, his other teammates. With rookie Chase Young starting to come on strong down the stretch last season, as well as another player to be mentioned later on in this article, there were only so many bodies opposing offensive lines could use to stop the ferocious pass-rushing playmakers for the Washington Football Team. Payne took advantage of those mismatches and started to become a STARTABLE defensive lineman asset in IDP. It should be noted that had he averaged his 9.2 fantasy points per game over the entire season we’re talking about jumping from the DL33 to the DL14 in terms of fantasy points per game production around the likes of J.J. Watt and Khalil Mack.
Pick him up, if he’s available, on your dynasty league’s waiver wire immediately before more people start to catch on to what he can bring to their rosters.
Montez Sweat (DL & LB)- Washington Football Team
I know, I know I’m being a homer in this article, but I have a good reason to be. For years Washington has been stockpiling talent along the defensive line. It only stands to reason that one or a few of those players would have succeeded in becoming viable options in IDP fantasy football.
Enter Montez Sweat.
In 2020, Montez Sweat, using IDP123 scoring, came in as the DL14 in fantasy points per game with 12.9, just ahead of defensive rookie of the year and fellow teammate Chase Young. He led all defensive lineman on the team in sacks (9), tackles for a loss (14), QB hits (20), and passes defensed (6). PFF’s 3rd rated defender against the run, Sweat was the 13th best EDGE rusher in terms of defensive stops in the running game placing him around the likes of Jason-Pierre Paul, Joey Bosa, and Za’Darius Smith.
There’s a reason why Washington traded up into the first round of the NFL draft back in 2019 to draft Sweat. If not for a “reported” heart condition in one of his pre-draft physicals, scouts would have considered him to be a top-10 pick that season. With opposing teams keying on fellow teammate Chase Young for the foreseeable future there is no reason to think we should see a dip in Sweat’s real-life and fantasy production for years to come.
That all being said the word has been out on Sweat for a few months now in the IDP community. However, if by some chance he is still available on your waiver wire or at least available for trade in your league (a high second-round rookie pick with an LB2 should be a solid offer) you should absolutely make this acquisition ASAP!
Honorable Mentions: (Harold Landry-Ten) & (Trey Hendrickson-FA)*
*If you followed me and @FantasyInFrames on Twitter last season then you already know where I stand on Hendrickson. Wherever he lands, if he can be a starter, he will pay dividends at the position meaning DL1/DL2 upside.
Fallers
Frank Clark (DL Only)- Kansas City Chiefs
Using FantasyPros IDP scoring, Frank Clark was the DL65, averaging 5.6 fppg, in 2020. Compare that to the past three seasons where he’s averaged 8.73 (2019), 9.71 (2018), & 6.83 (2017) it has become painfully clear his fantasy trajectory is heading downhill…FAST.
In 2020, according to FantasyData, Clark was the DL37 in tackles for a loss, DL27 in sacks, and DL57 in solo tackles. For those new to IDP, that’s bad, especially for a defensive lineman who just one year ago was the DL1 in tackles for a loss, sacks, and was the DL5 in solo tackles.
If I were you I would try to trade him as high as you could on name value alone and invest in a defensive lineman in your rookie drafts. Better to jump off the ship a year too early than a year too late.
Olivier Vernon (DL & LB Eligible)- FA
Yes, I’m aware Olivier Vernon finished in 2020 as the DL20 in IDP123 scoring averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game. Yes, I’m aware he was second among Browns defensive linemen in sacks (9), tackles for a loss (13), and 3rd in solo tackles with 24. I, also, understand he lines up opposite of Myles Garrett which makes the amount of blocking he faces fairly “beatable” from a week to week basis. So why am I saying his stock is falling? The answer revolves around how he scores his fantasy points and his injury history.
In 2020, he had 6 games in which he scored double-digit fantasy points. His average in those 6 games was 23 fppg. That point per game average was skewed HEAVILY by a random 43 point performance in week 11. In the other 8 games, he averaged 3.1 fppg. To me, that screams of him being a very boom or bust player. Boom or bust players are typically who you should try to avoid, if possible, in fantasy.
In terms of his injury history, he hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2016. In week 17 of 2020, he tore his Achilles tendon putting his availability for the 2021 season in doubt. Are you really telling me you’re going to keep riding a 30-year-old injury-prone player in dynasty who is now coming off of a devastating injury when you can find a younger more consistent replacement off of the waiver wire?!
If I was talking redraft and he was healthy and signed back with the Browns in 2021 I would make the argument for rostering him for one more season, in IDP123 scoring leagues, because of his average of 12 fppg over the past few seasons despite not playing a full season in 4 years. However, we’re talking dynasty and quite frankly it’s only a matter of time before his age and injury prone-ness (yes, I just made up that word) catch up to him.
Get ahead of the curve and get rid of him for something, anything you can in your leagues before the wheels fall off and no one wants him.
Dishonorable Mentions: (Everson Griffen-FA) & (Yannick Ngakoue-BAL)
Thanks for reading, folks! Be sure to stay glued to all of our new dynasty content here at FantasyInFrames.com.
