Today, I’m looking at the far too often disrespected defensive back position in IDP fantasy football as it relates to the rise and fall in value of certain players after the 2020 fantasy football season.
However, before I get into that, I want to give a little disclaimer to my readers about my take on the DB position for the purposes of this article and articles going forward.
*Thanks to certain platforms, like Sleeper HQ, duel eligibility has been a tremendous help in pointing out which DBs to target in leagues. Being dual-eligible is related to the number of snap counts a player has at a particular position. For example, certain defensive backs can be duel eligible as linebackers since they might play closer to the line of scrimmage often as well as playing in coverage. What does that translate into? That’s right, tackle upside! Defensive backs Jeremy Chinn & Jabrill Peppers fit the mold of that category. However, for the purposes of this article, I’m going to stick to players that qualify for the defensive back position ONLY, specifically on the Sleeper app.*
Earlier I stated the defensive back position is often scoffed at in IDP circles. The reason being? BAD SCORING SETTINGS! More often than not most leagues do not reward enough points for plays DBs make on the field. As a result, IDP’ers find them less valuable. Here at Fantasy In Frames, there are two scoring settings we’ll be using to discuss IDP fantasy point production: FantasyPros & IDP123 scoring. Think of FantasyPros IDP scoring as the non-PPR/half PPR scoring setting of IDP and IDP123 as the full PPR equivalent. These scoring settings, we believe, will help maximize the value of any player on the defensive side of the ball in fantasy football!
That being said another caveat to IDP scoring and fantasy point scoring, in general, is who is tracking the official statistics for each player correctly. We, here, trust Pro Football Reference for our stat tracking as their stats are directly related to what the NFL has reported. It just so happens that Sleeper HQ takes those same statistics from the NFL/PREF and uses them to help assign fantasy point values. Therefore, when fantasy points are referenced here in our articles you well see a “FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ” or “IDP123/Sleeper HQ” identifier next to any fantasy point discussion.
Moral of the story: Take these scoring settings and set up your league on Sleeper HQ for the MOST ACCURATE point values on ANY platform IMO.
FantasyPros IDP Scoring:
IDP123 Scoring:
Now that I’ve gotten THAT out of the way, WELCOME TO TODAY’S 4-EYED MARKET WATCH. Let’s go over some defensive backs that I believe are on the rise in dynasty value heading into the 2021 season and which ones are falling like boulders after their performances in 2020.
Risers
Darnell Savage (Green Bay Packers)
Drafted as the DB72, according to Sleeper HQ, Darnell Savage finished as the DB31 in total fantasy points earned using FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring settings. He also finished as the DB32 in fantasy points per game (10.0) and in terms of fantasy points per game scored by a strong safety (SS) he was SS7. Playing a majority of his snaps either patrolling the middle of the field in slot corner coverage or playing deep at safety, the majority of his work and fantasy success came in the secondary and farther away from the line of scrimmage.
Savage took a tremendous jump from 2019 to 2020 in which we saw his passer rating of QB when targeted drop from a 91.1 to a 63.0. Not only that but we saw his reception percentage allowed drop from 63% to 54.5%. His 12 pass breakups (PBUs), 4 interceptions, and 75 total tackles on the season (56 solo to 19 assisted) were also a tremendous bump up from his rookie year performance. From weeks 10-17 Savage averaged, in FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring, 13.1 fantasy points per game which, had he maintained that for the entire season, would have had him ranked as the DB4 in fantasy points per game in 2020.
Savage is an IDP superstar in the making, and given his lack of name value should be available for trade in most leagues and potentially on your league’s waiver wire. Snatch him up before it’s too late.
Jordan Fuller (Los Angeles Rams)
Taking over for an injured Taylor Rapp at strong safety in 2020, Jordan Fuller filled in admirably in relief as he averaged, in IDP123/Sleeper HQ scoring, 11.3 fantasy points per game on the season. From weeks 10-17, after assuming the starting role he averaged 11.85 fantasy points per game. Not bad for the rookie!
Now, while not exactly great from a REAL football standpoint evidenced by his 73.7% reception percentage allowed and 99.7 NFL passer rating allowed to QBs, his 42 solo to 18 assisted tackle ratio did serve him well from a fantasy standpoint. With John Johnson III potentially on his way out via free agency Fuller should be in line for an expanded role in this Rams defense, only increasing his fantasy ceiling. Get your cheap shares while you can!
Noteable Risers: Donovan Wilson (DAL) & Jeff Okuduh (DET)
Fallers
Tracy Walker (Detroit Lions)
Even in IDP123/Sleeper HQ scoring, which is the PPR of IDP scoring, Tracy Walker was the DB77 in 2020. Coming off of a monster year in 2019 that saw him average 17.3 fantasy points per game in just 13 games as the DB5 overall, Walker, in 15 games, only averaged 11.3 in 2020. Those of you that paid up for his services in 2020 were certainly hit with the “WTF was I thinking” facepalm all season long.
It should be noted he was hampered by a foot injury that drastically reduced his snaps per game to 42.5 per game from weeks 10-17. It should ALSO be noted that when he DID play above 50 snaps he averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game in IDP123/Sleeper HQ scoring.
That being said I’m sure plenty of fantasy managers, who play in IDP123 scoring, would rather take their chances on a more consistent fanatsy point producer rather than dive into the details of why a player performed as poorly as Walker did. Therefore, I would recommend fielding offers for him while his market value has taken a hit after this past fantasy season. If he can stay healthy he could return DB1 dividends in 2021 and beyond.
Harrison Smith (Minnesota Vikings)
Using FantasyPros/Sleeper HQ scoring, Harrison Smith averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game on the season which is his lowest average since 2016. In fact, in 2020 he only had 5 games in which he scored in the double-digits. I have to be honest there is NO ONE on this Vikings secondary that should steal playing time and opportunity away from Smith in 2021, mostly being because a majority of starting secondary is hitting the free agent market. But even more important than that Smith has two bad things going against him in IDP:
- Father time is undefeated and he’s just winding down
- The lack of help at other positions has almost given him too many opportunities thus spreading his defensive value pretty thin
For the purposes of IDP, you are better off breaking up with the 10-year veteran, if you haven’t already, and investing in a younger up and comer…after all, we are talking about dynasty.
Dishonorable Fallers: Karl Joseph (CLE) & Micah Hyde (BUF)
That’s all for today. Check back later this week as I drop my 4-EYED MARKET WATCH for DEFENSIVE LINEMEN.
Take it easy, #4EYEDfans!
Sources for this article:
- Pro Football Reference
- Pro Football Focus
- FantasyData
