Is Marvin Jones Being UNDERVALUED?

The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Detroit Lions.

Since 2017, there has been ONE wide receiver that has been a constant staple in Detroit’s receiving game, from a fantasy point per game (fppg) perspective, averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game during that stretch with the next closest receiver on the roster averaging 10.8. In 2017, this wide receiver was in the top 12 among wide receivers in fantasy point scoring ahead of players like Adam Thielen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Stefon Diggs. In 2019, he was tied for WR19 with 12.5 fppg, surrounded by more prominently known wide receivers such as Robert Woods, D.J. Chark, Calvin Ridley, and Allen Robinson, in 0.5 PPR scoring.

Yes, friends, I’m talking about MARVIN JONES JR.

Flash forward to 2020 and his current ADP ranking as the WR40, a ranking which can be found here, begs the question, is Marvin Jones Jr being undervalued in fantasy drafts in 2020?

The Downside

First, let’s get the obvious out of the way. His age. Father-time comes for us all and entering his age 30 season we’ve seen that his games played per season has started to decrease due to injuries since 2017. Not only that but we’ve seen his targets decrease since 2017 since the emergence of Kenny Golladay from 107 in 2017, 62 in 2018, to 92 in 2019, with the jump in targets in 2019 largely due to the absence of Kenny Golladay and Danny Ammendola due to injuries during the season. Only 6 times out of 14 did he have double-digit fantasy points games in 0.5 PPR scoring in 2019 and had just two games with over 100 yards receiving last season. Combine that with the fact that, in 2020, the Lions should have a crowded receiving group with receivers Golladay and Amendola returning to full health, the emergence of second-year tight end T.J. Hockenson, and the potential receiving duo out of the backfield with Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift Marvin Jones is starting to kind of get lost in the shuffle which could be reflective of his current WR ADP.

The Upside

So let me get this straight, he’s been able to crack the top 20 in fppg the last two out of the three-seasons, is a part of a passing game that has a pass-to-run ratio of 60.5-39.5% according to the PlayerProfiler.com, and has been one of the most reliable targets in the passing game for Detroit, regardless of who is at QB, since 2017 and you’re telling me he’s the WR40?! I think we’re forgetting about how impressive he was just last season.

During weeks 1-8 w/ Stafford at QB Marvin Jones averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game. When playing in weeks 9-14 (missing the last 3 games due to injury) with the likes of David Blough and Matt Driskel throwing him the ball he still managed to average 12.4 fantasy points per game. Not only is that consistency impressive but he also managed to score double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games in which he averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game. Jones Jr is a staple of the Lions passing game and given his consistency in terms of fantasy production while in Detroit over the years there is no reason to believe he shouldn’t be able to maintain that consistency going forward, despite the decrease in targets.

Oh, it also helps that Jones’ aDOT (average depth of target) closely mirrors that of his quarterback’s aDOT which basically means Jones is targeted on average the same amount of distance his quarterback averages when throwing the ball.

I hear that’s a good thing when a QB and WR are on the same page like that.

Answering The Question

Is Marvin Jones Jr being undervalued in fantasy drafts in 2020?

Yes, and that’s fine with me. All receiving options around his ADP have the ability to put up WR1 numbers on their respective team’s offenses, but only Jones Jr. has the stability at quarterback, the proven track record of consistency, and the likelihood of repeating past performances compared to the state of the offenses surrounding the other ADP options shown above to give fantasy managers reasons to trust him. Getting a solid WR2 with the potential for consistent WR1 upside in the 8th round of fantasy drafts on a high-passing volume offense is the best-case scenario of best-case scenarios for drafters who focus on running back earlier in their drafts. Make sure you steal Marvin Jones Jr. in your fantasy drafts this year!

***As of 7/29/2020, Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson were placed on the COVID exempt list meaning they will be removed from team activities for the foreseeable future making Jones Jr an even more reliable fantasy asset if there are any health concerns with those receiving weapons going forward.***