Today, we are continuing our AFC West coverage in our 4-EYED TEAM PREVIEW SERIES by covering the Denver Broncos! This morning we’re talking offense, and later today, we’ll be releasing our IDP outlook, so stay tuned!
Entering the 2021 season, it might be assumed that there would be “Mile High” doubts about what type of team the Broncos will run onto the field. Last years’ 5-11 season was shrouded in bad luck as well as bad play. When a team has ten games decided by 7 points or less, lady luck and señor skill need to be on your side. It is tough to look back at the 2020 season and find some true positives on the season. Drew Lock didn’t top 3,000 yards, nor did any running back or wide receiver top 1,000 yards. Add in the fact Courtland Sutton suffered a season-ending knee injury along with multiple injuries across the defense, and you can see why the Broncos had only 5 wins. But…I am the glass-half-full type of guy, so I will bring you some players who I think might help bring you a fantasy title in 2021.
Who are these players, you may ask?
Find out below in our 2021 Broncos 4-EYED Offensive Team Preview!
Quarterback Competition
Drew Lock: I really want to pick a side and go with it, but at this stage of training camp, it is a 50/50 situation. Lock got the 1st work with the first-team offense in camp, but it was mentioned numerous times that both would get equal reps. Last year, with the Broncos, Lock finished the season as the QB23, but QB 29 on a per/game basis. Lock definitely would have the slight edge in the competition, seeing as he is at least one year familiar with Pat Shurmur’s offense. This is actually one of the true positives that I can find with the outlook for Lock since it is the first time he has had the same OC in consecutive years. Drew Lock has the weapons to finish as a legit QB2 if he can control his poor decisions and improve his accuracy. The gunslinger mentality has a place; it just has to be harnessed.
Teddy Bridgewater: Last year with the Panthers, Teddy Two Gloves finished as the QB19. Let’s look at this situation for a moment. The Panthers were loaded with talent; DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel, yet he could only manage a paltry 15 TDs on the season. This is the major concern with the ceiling for Bridgewater. I can expect a solid completion % (66.5% for his career), but last years’ 15 TD would appear to be near his ceiling. Add in the fact that the Broncos are looking to control the ground game, and I see Bridgewater as a decent floor/low ceiling type of QB2 option.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (Current ADP: RB28)
It would appear to be Melvin Gordon’s swan song in Denver. He is in the final year of his deal with the Broncos, and they recently just invested a 2nd-round pick in Javonte Williams. Despite the backfield questions this year, Gordon was actually serviceable last year (RB13) in 1/2 PPR scoring. Looking at the big picture, his 9 TD’s were among the tops in the league, and his 4.6ypc was the 2nd highest of his career. That is where the superlatives stop though. Considering the draft capital they spent on Williams and the number of snaps needed for Gordon to be a viable RB2, you might want to wait a little later past the third round before investing a draft pick on him. No need to invest that early in someone who has a “slight” chance of holding on to the starting role on that team and more than likely has more bye week upside than anything else.
Javonte Williams (Current ADP: RB27)
Anytime a team trades up to take a skill position, like RB, it almost always means that they have plans for that player to be featured in some expanded role. Yes, I know Melvin Gordon stands in the way, but Javonte Williams is a true RB1 style feature back that, if given the opportunity, could be a league winner. The main concern is when? Some beat writers in Denver have speculated that Williams will lead the backfield in touches and take on the lead role from the get-go. I am not certain of that, considering the challenges of a rookie RB in a system like Pat Shurmurs’. If you have your doubts, take a look at the run below and know that he is PFF’s 2nd highest graded RB since they began their grading process.
UNC RB Javonte Williams (5’10”, 220)
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) March 10, 2021
– Graduated with a 4.6 GPA and was valedictorian of his class
– Played LB until his senior year of high school
– Now 20 years old (Born April 2000)
– Averaged 0.48 missed tackles/attempt in 2020 (1st in the NCAA)pic.twitter.com/HJgnRnjTzZ
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (Current ADP: WR32)
Sutton’s 2020 was over before it even began. After a breakout in 2019, Sutton tore his ACL in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The good news is that he is already talking about playing in one of the pre-season games! Sutton might be one of the better values in the 2021 drafts coming off of the injury and has shown that he is pretty much QB proof after catching passes from 3 different QB’s in 2019. If you want to read more about why I think Courtland Sutton is a sleeper, you can read it here.
Jerry Jeudy (Current ADP: WR37)
There is no doubt; Jerry Jeudy was thrust into a difficult situation. A rookie WR learning a new system under multiple QB’s with no OTAs, and the WR1 goes down in Week 1 with a season-ending injury?! Trial by fire is probably the best way to describe this. Did he get burned? Sure! His reception % of 46% was near the bottom of the league…it was AJ Green bad. But, again, a new system, different QB’s, thrust into the #1 role. All fair reasons to give a mulligan. His route running is excellent, and the addition of Sutton should open up some more lanes this season. He should finish higher than his WR44 ranking from last year.
Denver Broncos WR is so loaded you can’t fit it in one tweet with pictures. pic.twitter.com/zUsBvzbFDV
— ᴄᴀᴍᴇʀᴏɴ ᴘᴀʀᴋᴇʀ (@CameronParkerPO) May 3, 2021
KJ Hamler/Tim Patrick
This is a shame. Both Hamler and Patrick add to a WR depth on the Broncos that will match any team in the NFL. Unfortunately, they possess a QB (battle) that will most likely only support 2 WR’s. It’s a shame because both have shown that they can have spike games. Hamler had back-to-back 10-target games but is more likely to have the big-play threat. Patrick really took over as the #2 on the team, yet actually finished as their highest scoring option (WR41) compared to Jeudy. It’s really a shame, seeing as he helped many fantasy managers win last year. If something happens to the WR depth, be prepared to strike.
Tight End
Noah Fant (Current ADP: TE7)
Fant is looking to build on a decently successful 2020. He began the season on a tear, scoring in his 1st two games. It was in Week 4 that the season took a little bit of a turn. He suffered an ankle injury that lingered into Week 7 and most likely impacted his production as a whole. As with the WR’s, the QB didn’t necessarily help either. If Fant is going to have the breakout season like many are predicting, we will need to see an uptick in production from either Lock or Teddy.