Will Michael Gallup Become The WR1?
The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Dallas Cowboys.
In 2019, under the direction of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Cowboys went away from the stagnant play-calling of Jason Garrett to a more creative play-calling system that saw a pass-to-run ratio of 57.4% to 42.6%. Not surprisingly that offense operated out of shotgun formation 62% of the time which ultimately translated into both the quarterback and the primary wide receiving options feasting from a yardage and fantasy standpoint. Speaking of those primary receiving options, in 0.5 PPR scoring, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup both averaged close to 13 fppg (Cooper 12.9 & Gallup 12.8fppg), tallied over 1,000 yards receiving (Cooper 1,189 and Gallup 1107 yards), and were each targeted over 100 times in that offense (Cooper with 119 and Gallup with 112). What’s spectacular about Gallup, however, was that he managed to almost match Cooper’s stats in two fewer games played.
At the start of the 2020 offseason some fantasy analysts, like myself, were proclaiming that with Gallup’s rise in productivity in 2019 that it would only be a matter of time until he would take over in Dallas as the WR1 from a fantasy standpoint. However, a lot has happened this offseason. The Cowboys’ hired Mike McCarthy as head coach, they signed Amari Cooper to a 5-year $100 million dollar deal, and drafted wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. With all these moving parts the 4-EYED QUESTION that needs to be answered here is given his maturation, production, efficiency, and situation heading into this season is Will Michael Gallup Become The WR1 in Dallas?
Player Presentation
| Name | Team | Age | Height | Weight | NFL Exp. | |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | 31 | 6’1” | 198 lb | 3 years |
Reasons For Pessimism
*Quality start data courtesy of Fantasy Pros
- Despite their comparable statistics, Cooper technically still had the advantage in fantasy production, evidenced by the chart above. With Cowboys paying him such a lucrative contract this offseason chances are that Dallas has big plans to incorporate him even more into this passing game in 2020
- Rookie Ceedee Lamb is slated to take over at slot WR, info courtesy of Ourlads.com, from the now ex-Cowboy Randall Cobb. In 2019, the slot WR in Dallas tallied 828 receiving yards, 3 TDs, and averaged 8.5 fppg. With the Cowboys investing a first-round draft pick in Lamb, it’s safe to assume that the Cowboys will look to get a return on investment in their draft pick sooner rather than later ensuring any vacated yards or targets by Cobb would likely be headed Lamb’s way and not Gallups which was previously not considered to be the case given the lack of talent at WR on that roster prior to drafting Lamb
- In 2019, the Cowboys offense operated in 3-WR sets 62.4% of the time and while new head coach Mike McCarthy relinquished play-calling duties to incumbent play-caller Kellen Moore, McCarthy’s teams have been known to support three fantasy relevant WRs. Most recently in 2016, for Green Bay, Jordy Nelson (16 fppg), Davante Adams (13.1 fppg), and Randall Cobb (9.1 fppg) were one of, if not, the best trio of wide receivers on one team from a fantasy perspective. So what does that have to do with Gallup? Given the lack of change in scheme from last season to this season along with the fact that the Cowboys had three decent receiving options from a fantasy perspective on their offense in 2019, chances are the Cowboys will find a way to replicate a similar kind of pattern of success. All of which translates into Gallup not finding a way to tip the scales in his favor of being the WR1 on this team
Reasons For Optimism
For starters let’s talk about Yards After Catch.
Yards after catch or YAC is a very important metric when looking at wide receiver production. Even more specifically I’m talking about Yards After Catch/Reception. In one of my 4-EYED STRATEGY articles earlier this offseason, I explained the various metrics people should look at when evaluating wide receivers from a fantasy perspective, which you can read here. In it, I emphasized the importance of YAC/R. Why bring this up? Because Gallup’s ability to gain extra yardage after catching the ball surpassed that of Cooper’s in 2019.
- Gallup tallied 333 yards after the catch to Cooper’s 278. Gallup, also, averaged 5 yards gained after each reception to Cooper’s 3.5 which tells me defenses were likely keying on Cooper, rightfully so, in order to prevent him from making big plays after catching the ball. All of which allowed for more advantageous one-on-one matchups for Gallup
- Another interesting stat from Gallup’s 2019 season, in which he overtook Cooper, was in broken tackles. Gallup led THE ENTIRE TEAM with 7 compared to Cooper’s 4. This metric tells me that Gallup was physically stronger than Cooper in trying to break free from tight coverage. All of which is good, I hear, from a receiving standpoint when trying to break away to make plays
- Gallup had a larger aDOT than Cooper meaning he earned more big-play opportunities down the field. Pair that with a QB who had the 4th largest aDOT last season and now you’re starting to get the picture of why there’s optimism for Gallup becoming WR1 in Dallas. He dominated his matchups in this offense and the Cowboys trusted him to make BIG plays
That being said while I can regurgitate impressive stats of Gallup all day, the only way, from my perspective, for Gallup to overtake Cooper as the WR1 in fantasy is if Cooper faces tougher defensive coverages in 2020 limiting his upside so much so that it allows Gallup more opportunity to exploit his efficiency and production. AND as it just so happens that is what will happen in the NFC East this upcoming season.
Newly acquired cornerback for the Philadelphia Eagles Darius Slay, who Amari Cooper will face twice a year now, matched up with Cooper in 2019 and held him to 3 receptions for 38 yards and 5.3 fantasy points. Furthermore, Slay in 2019, only allowed on average to receivers 54.2 yards receiving per game and 3.8 receptions per game. Cornerback Avonte Maddox, who will now lineup against Michael Gallup, was rated the 44th best CB according to ProFootball Focus (PFF). Take that for what you will.
The Giants newly acquired cornerback James Bradberry matched up with Cooper back in 2016 and all Cooper could muster was 4 receptions for 22 yards and 4.2 fantasy points. Bradberry, in 2019, only allowed on average 50.6 yards receiving per game and 4.9 receptions. His counterpart in the Giants secondary, DeAndre Baker, was rated as the 7th worst cornerback in the NFL according to PFF.
That’s four games where Gallup can compensate for any slight statistical deficiency he may have with Cooper this season.
Now I know what you’re thinking. If these cornerbacks can take Cooper out of the equation by themselves won’t that allow for these defenses to double-team Gallup? Alas, you’re forgetting about Ceedee Lamb drawing away coverage from the slot ensuring more one-one-one opportunities for Gallup outside.
Answering The Question
Will Michael Gallup Become The WR1 in Dallas?
If not for the defensive additions in the division I would have said no given all the moves that have occurred for the Cowboys this offseason. That being said there are enough signs for me pointing towards Gallup being the guy this passing game is destined to be funneled through, and with his talent and opportunity to take advantage of this situation I believe he is destined to be the top fantasy option at the wide receiver position for the Dallas Cowboys in 2020.