Chasing Upside in Week 2
Welcome to our first Chasing Upside in Fantasy Football article for Week Two of the 2022 Fantasy Football season!
Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Chasing Upside in Week Two!
Quarterback
Trey Lance
Follow @JoeEMatzMy week one Chasing Upside pick, Trevor Lawrence, finished 24th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. Not the start I was hoping for, but I’m confident in getting a week two rebound by selecting last week’s 26th quarterback – Trey Lance.
Lance’s debut as the 49ers’ full-time starter was not inspiring, 13/28 for 164 yards and an interception with 54 yards on the ground only mildly off-setting the ugly passing stats. I wouldn’t read too much into it, though. Lance isn’t likely to be the most consistent passer this season but, he’ll be incredibly unlucky if he plays through conditions as bad as the ones in Chicago last week. The grass at Soldier Field is notoriously bad under normal circumstances, when you add in 3-5 inches of rain (The Chicago Sun-Times said the city suffered its “worst flooding in over 2 years”), it’s no wonder both offenses struggled to look functional. So don’t fret the about half-inch expected to fall in Santa Clara this Sunday, that’ll be a breeze in comparison.
The Seahawks’ defense is also comparable to a lovely summer breeze. They allowed Russell Wilson to rack up 340 yards on 8.1 YPA attempt on Monday night, and that’s not a fluke. Pete Carroll’s squad ranked 26th in passing defense DVOA last season and, in their offseason secondary rankings, Pro Football Focus said Seattle had the “scariest-looking cornerback group on paper in the NFL. And not for opposing offenses.” Last season, Jimmy G threw for 299 yards and two scores in one start against Seattle; in the other, he and Lance combined for 322 yards passing and three scores. This matchup is a chance for the 49ers passing game to feast.
Throw in Lance’s rushing ability (an average of 12.3 carries and 58 yards across three starts) and the absence of starting running back Elijah Mitchell, and there’s a real shot Lance has not just starting but elite production on Sunday.
Marcas Mariota
Follow @KeithFlemmingAs a Falcons fan, there isn’t a lot to be happy about after their stunning(yet somehow predictable) 16-point blown lead in the 4th quarter vs. The Saints in Week 1. However, as someone who drafted Marcus Mariota as their backup QB for a few standard leagues, there were some very positive signs. Mariota was a Top 10 QB for Week 1, throwing for over 200 yards in the air and seeing 12 rushing attempts, with a score on the ground. Arthur Smith showed in Week 1 that he knows to have this Falcons offense operating at a high level, they will need to get Mariota moving in the pocket and allow him to run on designed runs.
Mariota was top 3 among QBs in carries, red zone carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns on the ground. That is something that should continue this week as it will keep Marcus’s floor relatively high. I know this is a chasing upside article, but it’s that high floor that makes him so appealing with where his ranking is currently for QBs for Week 2.
There were also some good signs in the passing game. Mariota had the 3rd highest protection rate, and was top 15 in red zone pass attempts, air yards, air yards per attempt, and fantasy points per drop back. He was especially effective vs. man defenses, 6th in completion percentage vs. man and 5th in accuracy rating vs. man. The fact his receivers were 9th in separation for Week 1 shows the talent the Falcons receiving core possesses with Kyle Pitts and rookie Drake London. As Mariota proved in week 1, as long as he’s the Falcons starter, he will be a fringe QB1 with his running ability and weapons in the passing game.
Running Back
Michael Carter
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanFor Week 1, I recommended Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was the FantasyPros ECR RB27 in half-PPR. CEH finished as the RB6 with 20.9 fantasy points in Week 1. He hit his upside, scoring two touchdowns!
In Week 2, we are chasing the upside with Michael Carter. He is ranked the RB33 in FantasyPros ECR for Week 2. Carter is the starting running back for the New York Jets ahead of rookie Breece Hall. In Week 1, he accumulated 100 total yards from 19 opportunities, which led to 17 touches. He had the 2nd most targets on the team with nine, while Corey Davis had ten targets. Carter out-snapped Hall 50 to 38.
The biggest mismatch this week is the Jets’ offensive line versus the Browns’ defensive line. Myles Garret and company should destroy the Jets’ offensive linemen. Joe Flacco is a statue and cannot scramble, so he throws quick and short passes to his running backs. Carter will be close to a 50/50 split with Hall, but he will see plenty of opportunities. The best way to chase upside is to chase opportunities, and Michael Carter will have plenty of opportunities to score points in Week 2.
Devin Singletary
Follow @FFTylerHeilIf you are looking for upside, look no further than the Buffalo Bills’ offense. If you start a running back from this offense, it must be Devin “Motor” Singletary. Singletary took 59% of the snaps for this offense last week after James Cook had an ugly early fumble. I would expect to see Cook reprise a role in this offense, but it should be the role Zack Moss played extremely poorly last week as the receiving back. Moss took 37% of the offensive snaps and caught all 6 of his targets for a whopping 3.5 yards per reception. Cook should increase the effectiveness of the pass-catching back, but Singletary will remain the top back in this offense.
As stated before, Singletary played 59% of the offensive snaps, which puts him at the 21st highest percentage of snaps for a running back in week 1. Singletary racked up eight carries and two targets with those snaps. On those ten touches, he was hyper-efficient totaling 62 yards for 6 yards per carry and 7 yards per reception. In a game without Aaron Donald, I expect this Bills offense to increase their focus on the run game a bit and get Singletary more touches. The sweet spot for RB2 numbers is 10-15 touches, and Singletary should be right in that spot. The only real downfall of Singletary is that Josh Allen is on this team and is a highly effective red zone rusher; however, with the number of points this team can put up, his touchdowns will come.
With a Titans defense that is lacking at every level, this could be the week where that scoring play comes for Singletary. You should be able to flex Singletary confidently and even slide him into your RB2 slot if you were the unfortunate manager of Elijah Mitchell.
Wide Receiver
Follow @bill_mustafaBrandon Aiyuk
I think it’s fair to throw out the Niners’ opening game of the season. The conditions in Chicago were atrocious, and the playing field was paddling pool-like.
Brandon Aiyuk still mustered 40 receiving yards on only two receptions and will now be up against a Seahawks secondary that, whilst having a good game against Denver, still lack talent.
With Elijah Mitchell injured and not much behind him on the RB depth chart, we should see Deebo Samuel reprise his role as RB1 for San Francisco, leaving Brandon Aiyuk as the top option in the passing game.
I expect to see more of the Aiyuk we heard about all off-season in favorable conditions this week.
Robbie Anderson
Is there a chance that the Carolina Panthers version of Robbie Anderson is the player version of the Mike Zimmer Minnesota Vikings? As Zimmer’s Vikings would be a playoff team one year and underwhelming underachievers the next, that’s the same path Robbie Anderson appears to be on in his Panthers career.
The former Jet had a strong first season in Carolina. Only to follow it up with a poor showing in 2021. Anderson’s 5/102/1 stat line against Cleveland in Week 1 is a promising start to the season and was good enough for a WR10 finish, according to FantasyPros. He heads into Week 2 in form and will be up against a Giants secondary that was respectable against the Titans in Week 1 but lacks talent overall.
Tight End
Follow @JKlonowskiNFLHayden Hurst
Has former first-round pick Hayden Hurst finally found a home he can flourish in? Hurst had an impressive first showing for Super Bowl finalists, the Cincinnati Bengals in week one. The veteran quickly became part of the team’s passing attack, reeling in five catches from eight targets, amassing a total of 46 receiving yards. This equated to around a 15% target share. The tight end’s underlying numbers also point to consistent usage going forwards. Hurst saw a 75% snap share, according to FantasyPros. He also led all tight ends in routes run, according to Rotowire. It may be a small sample size of one game, but it is promising nonetheless, and should indicate further heavy involvement in the future.
It also presents a clear uptick from his fantasy performances last year in Atlanta. Across his 13 games in 2021, Hurst only saw more than four targets once and similarly only reached the 40 receiving yard mark on just one occasion. The hope now is that he can start to replicate his 2020 season in which he finished as the TE10 In half-PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. That season he scored an average of 7.6 points per game, finishing with a final stat line of 88 targets for 56 receptions, 571 yards, and six touchdowns.
This week presents another good chance for a solid outing with the Bengals facing a Dallas Cowboys team mired in injury. The Bengals have injury concerns of their own in the form of Tee Higgins. The third-year receiver left the game on Sunday with a concussion and will subsequently be in the concussion protocol. If he cannot pass, expect a boost to Hurst’s target share and red zone usage. Hurst saw two red zone targets in week one, and there is every chance of further such work and the potential of a touchdown on Sunday. As a growing part of such a potent offense, Hurst is a solid streaming option for week 2.
Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week Two article.
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Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!
