Chasing Upside in Week 1

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7 minutes read
Chasing Fantasy Football Upside for Week 1 of NFL Season (2022)

Welcome to our first Chasing Upside in Fantasy Football article for Week 1 of the 2022 Fantasy Football season!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our Chasing Upside in Fantasy for Week 1!

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence

If you listened to this week’s “Daily Fix” podcast or read the Fantasy In Frames “Starts and Sits” article (both of which you should do if you haven’t already) then my pick for a sleeper with QB-1 upside this weekend should already be on your radar, “Sunshine” himself, Trevor Lawrence.

As my co-host, Keith Flemming, explained on our pod, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Lawrence this year. No, the Jags haven’t suddenly surrounded him with an elite line or weapons but Brandon Scherff, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and a healthy Travis Ettienne are all marked improvements from what Lawrence had to work with last year. Subbing in Doug Pederson and his staff for the Urban Meyer debacle can only help too. 
Speaking of helping, that’s exactly what the Washington defense does for QBs. Last year only four teams gave up more passing yards, and only Kansas City allowed more rushing touchdowns, to opposing quarterbacks. The artists formerly known as the Football Team didn’t stop there though, finishing dead last in passing touchdowns and rushings yards allowed to the other team’s signal caller. It should come as no surprise they were 32nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs. The only notable move Washington made to address this was dispensing with coverage disaster Landon Collins, however considering that puts Benjamin St-Juste (104th out of 115 corners in PFF’s coverage grades) into the starting nickel spot it’s hardly problem solved, especially with Kirk lining up opposite him this week.

Throw in the Jags’ own defensive issues (28th in points and 32nd in turnovers last season) ensuring Lawrence will have to keep dropping back and we have a perfect storm of improved weapons, a weak opposing defense, and a positive game script that could easily see last year’s number one pick finishing as a QB-1 in week one.

Matt Ryan

I am very high on Matt Ryan and this Colts offense this year. On the 4th and Frames Podcast this week, I reminded everyone that in the last 4 seasons Matt Ryan was protected by a Top 10 offensive line (The Colts should be one this season), he has had the following finishes in fantasy. 

–2011 QB9 with 29 TDs

–2012 QB7 with 32 TDs

–2016 QB2 with 38 TDs

–2018 QB2 with 35 TDs  

Ryan is also a fast starter, since 2011 he’s averaging in Week 1 games 317 yards per game passing and 1.5 touchdowns. In 7 of those 11 games, he has thrown multiple touchdowns and eclipsed 300 yards in the air. His matchup for Week 1 is the Houston Texans, in a dome (where Ryan is a much better QB). The Texans had the worst secondary in football in 2021. I know they added Derek Stingley in the first round and brought in defensive-minded head coach Lovie Smith, but Rome was not built in a day. I expect Frank Reich to show off his new look offense with a competent QB in Week one in an attempt to not overwork their stud running back, Jonathan Taylor. When Reich has had a competent QB in Phillip Rivers (2020) and Andrew Luck (2018), the Colts had not been nearly as run-dominant averaging closer to 35 throws per game, compared to 30 with Wentz and Brissett being the starters. I could easily see Ryan eclipsing 275 yards and throwing 2 or more scores. I think Ryan finishes Week 1 on the fringe QB1 number, if not inside of it, and he is the QB you should like when chasing upside in Week 1. 

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

It is Week 1, therefore we do not have any current trends established. The beginning of the season is making educated bets to take advantage of misperceptions. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was overhyped during his rookie season, and people felt let down. Then we found out his gallbladder was removed the last off-season, and he lost a lot of weight. These are excuses, but it has lowered CEH’s rank. On FantasyPros Week 1 ECR, CEH is ranked RB27.

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona this week. There have been some defensive roster changes, but the Cardinals were an average defense against running backs. They gave up the least amount of rushing touchdowns in 2021 but were above average in most yards given up to running backs. The Arizona Cardinals is not a negative matchup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire only played in 10 games last season, but he finished as an RB1 in four games (40%). He averaged 17.2 half-PPR points per game in those four games. That is an extremely small sample size, but that would have made him the RB4 in ppg last season. That is just to illustrate how well he scored in 40% of his down-season. FantasyPros projected CEH for 10.2 points in Week 1. CEH only averaged 34.2 snaps/game last year and split the snaps with Darrel Williams with 33.4 snaps/game. CEH only had a 41.8% snap share. Williams is no longer on the roster and there is not a stable 2nd running back behind CEH yet this season. He should exceed a 50% snap share in Week 1. CEH was efficient in the redzone scoring six touchdowns from 16 touches. You can start CEH in your flex spot or RB2 spot if you focused on wide receivers early in your draft.

Wide Receiver

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – ECR45 – @ Arizona Cardinals 

Former Green Bay Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) looks to be an ideal fit with Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City Chiefs offense. His 4.37 40-yard dash time should see him become the primary replacement for Tyreek Hill and Mahomes’ first option when looking deep. 

Against an Arizona defense whose secondary leaves much to be desired, I expect MVS to cause some problems. Expect Vance Joseph to entrust the versatile Isaiah Simmons with covering Travis Kelce and nickel corner Byron Murphy Jr to be matched up with JuJu Smith-Schuster, leaving second-year, fourth-round pick Marco Wilson to cover the speedy MVS. 

Treylon Burks – ECR53 – vs. New York Giants 

Rookie pass-catcher Treylon Burks hasn’t had the training camp or pre-season you’d expect from a player taken 18th overall. From asthma to running the wrong routes in pre-season,  some of the shine has been rubbed off the man tasked with replacing A.J. Brown. Nevertheless, Burks has an opportunity to flip the narrative and make an immediate impact in his first regular season NFL game as the Titans welcome the New York Giants to Tennessee. 

The Giants’ new Defensive Coordinator Wink Martindale is known for his aggressive ‘blitz from everywhere’ scheme. This puts pressure on his secondary, and, unlike in Baltimore, he doesn’t have the horses to match up 1-on-1 while he sends the house after the QB. In addition, Big Blue moved on from James Bradberry this offseason, leaving little at the position outside Adoree Jackson, who will likely be charged with keeping Robert Woods quiet. 

Burks is expected to open the season as the Titans’ starting slot receiver, which could see him often targeted due to the Giants having to load the box to stop the freight train, Derrick Henry. 

I wasn’t Burks’ biggest fan coming out in the draft, but he’s still a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hand, whose best trait may well be taking short passes, turning up the field, and creating YAC. I like this matchup to allow the former Razorback to show off that skill set and outperform his current week 1 ECR.

Tight End

Cole Kmet

Chasing upside at the tight end position is often a tricky proposition. The gap between the top of the pyramid and the rest is vast, and outside of the elite options, you’ll likely find a fair amount of disappointment. One option outside the top-10 in week 1 who could outproduce is Cole Kmet. The tight end, who is coming into his third year in the league, will look to step up after the departure of several offensive players in the off-season.

Volume is much easier to predict than touchdowns. After the departures such as Allen Robinson and very little arriving, Kmet has vaulted his way up to become one of the main pass-catching options for Chicago and should command a sizeable target share. If the Bears are going to have any successes on offense this year (a stretch, I know), then Kmet is likely to be heavily involved.

Kmet took a clear step forward in his second season in the NFL. Across his 17 games last year he saw a noticeable jump in the targets, receptions, and receiving yards – reeling in 60 catches (93 targets) for 612 yards, according to FantasyData. He, however, failed to score a touchdown last season, a figure which we would naturally expect to increase with his likely uptick in targets this year. While it may only have been pre-season, the connection between Fields and his tight end was clear. The hope now is that it continues into the regular season, starting with this Sunday.

This week’s matchup, on paper, does not look too enticing. As Jorge pointed out in this week’s starts and sits article with the state of Chicago’s offensive line, Justin Fields will likely spend a fair amount of time trying to stay upright. The likely dominance of the 49ers, however, could spell good things for Kmet. San Francisco is currently a 7-point favorite going into the game, and it would not be a surprise to see the Bears facing a negative game script early on, providing Fields and Kmet plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Fantasy for Week 1 article.

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!

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Photo of Team Fantasy In Frames Team Fantasy In Frames Send an email September 9, 2022
7 minutes read
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