Chasing Upside in Week 9

Photo of Jorge Edwards Jorge Edwards Follow on X Send an email November 4, 2022
7 minutes read

Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 9!

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Trevor Lawrence at home versus the Las Vegas Raiders is my upside pick for week 9. Lawrence is 7th in QB scoring over the last three weeks. He has put up 20 or more points in 2 of the past three weeks on his way to a season average of 17 points per game. He’s facing a Raiders team that is a mess right now. Vegas was dominated last week in New Orleans to the tune of a 24-0 skunking. Their defense has allowed opposing Quarterbacks to finish top 10 in scoring for the week in 6 of their seven games. The Raiders have surrendered multiple touchdowns in their last five games to quarterbacks such as Andy Dalton, Davis Mills, and Russell Wilson. That list doesn’t include the four-touchdown bonanza they allowed Patrick Mahomes. Lawrence has also amassed three rushing touchdowns in as many games providing additional upside. Trevor has shown he can pile up a handful of yards on the ground, which should be no different against this porous Raiders defense.

Finally, the Jaguars’ recent utilization of Travis Etienne has transformed this offense. The point totals don’t support that but allow them some grace, having played 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the past two weeks in Denver and the New York Giants. The Jags’ offense is significantly better because of Travis Etienne’s explosiveness.  This explosiveness will present itself in added red-zone opportunities for Lawrence and the Jags against a poor Raiders defense.

Running Back

Caleb Huntley, Atlanta Falcons

Disclaimer. This was written before it was announced Cordarrelle Patterson would be activated from the IR. I left it here in case there is any announcement regarding Patterson being on a snap count or severely limited.

Do you want upside from a deeper flex play?  Caleb Huntley is where you can find it.  Since Cordarrelle Patterson has gone out, most of the fantasy focus has been on Tyler Allgeier, and rightfully so, because he is their best pass-protecting and pass-catching back.  Therefore Allgeier plays more in this offense simply because he can do more.  However, one thing Allgeier hasn’t done better than Caleb Huntley is rush the ball.  Huntley has outstripped Allgeier by a wide margin in rushing efficiency, putting up a 4.6-yard-per-carry average versus Allgeier’s 3.9. In addition, the running game has been pretty split over the past five weeks, with Huntley toting the rock only 12 fewer times than Allgeier for 56 attempts.  Add to that he has run the ball only one less time than Allgeier in the ten-zone (7 to 6), and you have all the makings of a touchdown week for Huntley.

This evidence suggests Huntley will have a successful week. The Falcons will take on the lowly Chargers rush defense in a game with a Los Angeles team traveling cross-country to Atlanta. The Chargers have been extremely poor against the run. They have allowed the second-most half-PPR points per game, 26.7, to the running back position in the league. You should feel confident that Caleb Huntley will satisfy this week in your flex spot.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

I reach more when suggesting an upside running back each week. Even though this player is ranked the FantasyPros ECR RB25, he is a BOLD pick: AJ Dillon. There was hype and excitement in the offseason. We thought Dillon and Aaron Jones would dominate touches for the Packers with a weak wide receiver group. Jones has dominated recently, but Dillon has been losing work. Dillon’s 47.1% snap share on the season is fine. Overall, Dillon has been utilized more often per snap than Jones, 49.8% to 47.2% snaps, so it isn’t all bleak. He is running hard and looks strong with the ball in his hands. However, we need to see Dillon touch the ball more. Well, in Week 9, AJ Dillon has an AMAZING matchup!

The Green Bay Packers face the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions give up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs in the NFL. The two best weapons on the field are Jones and Dillon. The Packers have not been near the goal line much, but Dillon has not conceded goal-line opportunities. We just saw Aaron Jones play great in Week 8 with 20 carries for 143 yards against Buffalo. The Packers were down big but stuck with the running game and ran well. There is a chance the Packers heavily lean on the run against the hapless Lions’ run defense, and both running backs get plenty of opportunities. There are six teams on bye this week. You may need to start Dillon as your RB2; I love that upside this week!

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

The 6-1 Minnesota Vikings travel to the Capital in Week 9 to take on a Commander’s side boasting a three-game win streak. Veteran Vikings receiver Adam Thielen has a favourable matchup, as he’s likely to see a lot of Kendall Fuller. 

We targeted Fuller’s matchup with Alec Pierce in last week’s article, and a lot has stayed the same after that performance, and I feel no differently about his matchup with Thielen here. The Commanders’ cornerback has allowed the most yards per reception (16.9) and the highest NFL Passer Rating Against (130.2) of all qualifying corners. Fuller has also allowed the second most receiving yards & TDs in his coverage amongst qualifying corners. Therefore, Thielen is a safe start this week.

Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers

Every fantasy analyst and their dog is telling you to start Josh Palmer this week, and it’s easy to see why. The second-year receiver has already impressed when thrust into a more prominent role in the Chargers’ offense due to the absence of veteran Keenan Allen. This week though, he pulls #1 receiver duty as Mike Williams joins Keenen Allen on the inactive list. 

Justin Herbert likes to throw the ball, and even with Austin Ekeler commanding his share of the targets, Palmer will see an uptick in targets thrown his way. Of course, a WR with an ADP in the 170s rarely becomes a must-start any week. Still, the combination of the Chargers’ injury crisis at the position, Herbert’s ability as a playmaker, and the matchup against a Falcons side who will be missing their #1 corner, A.J. Terrel, makes Palmer a must-start in week 9.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan

While the Packers’ offense continues to falter, tight end Robert Tonyan has seen his role grow recently, receiving consistent targets from Aaron Rodgers. As a result, an enticing matchup awaits him this coming Sunday.

The former undrafted free agent was a constant red zone threat in 2020, scoring 11 TDs and finishing as the TE4 on the year in half PPR scoring, according to FantasyData. His 2021 season was then curtailed due to an ACL injury. However, he has fully recovered from his injury and is slowly making his way back to be an important part of the Packers’ passing attack.  

The last three weeks, in particular, have shown Tonyan’s growing role. Over this span, he has played over 50% in all three and commanded an average of seven targets per game. With several injuries to other pass catchers and the team failing to add anyone before the trade deadline (I’ll spare you a several hundred-word rant on this point), Tonyan should see a healthy number of targets again this week.

While his production in terms of yardage and touchdowns may be somewhat lacking, their division rivals Detroit may be able to assist. The Lions remain one of the most favorable opponents for tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-highest average points to the position so far. With limited weapons at his disposal, we can expect further healthy usage from Tonyan this week with plenty of upside.

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 9 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!

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Photo of Jorge Edwards Jorge Edwards Follow on X Send an email November 4, 2022
7 minutes read
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