Chasing Upside in Week 3

September 25, 2022 Team Fantasy In Frames
Chasing Upside in Week Two Fantasy Fantasy In Frames 2022

Welcome to our first Chasing Upside in Fantasy Football article for Week Two of the 2022 Fantasy Football season!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Chasing Upside in Week 3!

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota

We’re only two weeks in, but there’s a chance my “Chasing Upside” picks may be cursed. After struggling against a Washington defense that Jared Goff made mincemeat out of in week two, Trevor Lawrence rebounded from being my week one selection by having only his second pro game with multiple touchdown passes and no turnovers. Trey Lance didn’t have a poor game in week two, instead, he suffered a broken ankle that will cost him the rest of the season. So if Marcus Mariota gets struck by lightning on Sunday, I’ll have to retire this column. That said, I like the odds of Mariota posting a starting caliber fantasy line this week more than his becoming football’s Lee Trevino.

Mariota hasn’t set the fantasy world on fire since reuniting with Arthur Smith, but the ingredients are there for much larger fantasy production. Mariota’s already shown his running upside with 88 yards and a score, and he’s built quick rapport with rookie receiver Drake London, the two have connected on 68% of passes for 8.4 yards-per-target. There’s hope those numbers only get better as the two grow more accustomed to each other and London to the pro game. Of course, Kyle Pitts is the greatest area for growth in the Falcons’ passing game. Coming off a thousand-yard rookie season, the tight end has been a nonfactor thus far, but that should change as soon as this week. 


Last year the Saints and Rams (the two teams Atlanta has faced) were in the top six in pass defense DVOA and DVOA against tight ends. So it’s no surprise Mariota’s numbers have been muted playing against strong defenses capable of limiting one of his biggest weapons. Seattle is different. The Seahawks were 26th in DVOA against the pass and tight ends last year, & early results (30th and 26th) suggest they’re no better this season. They’re also dead last in plays and yards allowed per opponent drive.

Seattle is a bad defense, especially in the secondary, and while Lance didn’t see the field long enough to take advantage of that last week, Mariota has a good shot to do so this Sunday. If you need a flyer at QB, Mariota should be near the top of your list.

Jared Goff

The list of teams in the NFL with 30 points in both Week 1 and Week 2 is short in the 2022 NFL season. Team number one is The Buffalo Bills, which should surprise no one. The other team is The Detroit Lions, who has quietly amassed many weapons on offense, with D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockinson, Amon Ra St Brown, and eventually Jameson Williams, their 1st round pick recovering from his ACL injury in last year’s national title game. 

Goff has not received much praise for his play so far this year, 6 touchdowns to 1 interception, but it shouldn’t surprise people that he has this offense humming. Since the change in play caller for the Lions last year, in his last 9 games, he’s thrown 19 TDs to only 4 INTs.

The reason I am so bullish about Goff being my chasing upside pick for QB for Week 3 is not only due to the info above, but the fact the Lions vs Vikings game is predicted to be a shootout. Vegas has the over/under set at 52.5, the highest of any game on the Week 3 schedule. I think Goff has a great chance to exceed his expectations this week and is a good candidate for upside for the rest of the year.

Running Back

Tony Pollard

For Week 3, I want to chase upside with Tony Pollard at the running back position. According to FantasyPros ECR, Pollard is ranked as the RB33 for Week 3. Running back scoring was down in Week 2, but Pollard finished as the RB3 with 17.8 half-PPR fantasy points. In Week 2, Pollard’s snap share went down, but his rush share stayed the same with less time on the field. The largest change from Week 1 to Week 2 was his target share going from 4.9% to 23.3%! Pollard was 2nd on the team in targets in Week 2 with seven targets, only behind CeeDee Lamb (11).

 In Week 3, the Dallas Cowboys face the New York Giants. They have an average defense. Their best defender against the run, Leonard Williams, has a knee injury and is a long shot to play. Cooper Rush will be the Cowboy’s quarterback again, and Pollard’s usage will be similar. We cannot bet on touchdowns because they are not sticky from week to week. However, the correct process is to chase usage when looking for upside. Tony Pollard displayed a shifty burst in Week 2, and he will be effective in Week 3 with a high target share. Michael Gallup could play in Week 3, but he tore his ACL at the end of last season. I do not expect him to have a significant snap share, or take away targets from Pollard. You need to move Tony Pollard from your bench into your flex spot or RB2 spot on your roster.

Travis Etienne

The “Chasing Upside” moniker could not more aptly describe the Jacksonville Jaguars, Travis Etienne. Etienne is lightning in a bottle when he touches the ball and has not managed to uncork that bottle yet. He should have plenty of opportunity as the season goes on to have big games due to some highlight reel plays he will make.  He is now and should remain the RB2 in this offense, but it should make it more apparent as the season goes on that he is the number two receiver on this team.  To be a consistently good offense, a team must find ways to manufacture big plays, and Etienne is the Jaguars’ best chance at big plays weekly.  He has already recorded five plays of greater than 10 yards on only 18 touches through the first two weeks of the season, putting him at an astonishing 27% chunk play rate (I made the name of that stat up, but you get it).

As this offense and Trevor Lawrence improve throughout the season, Etienne will be an inextricable contributor to how this team wants to be successful on the offensive side of the ball.  You might have to divorce perceived value from the actual value a bit for Etienne as his draft cost indicates he is an every-week RB2. Once you can do that, you can accept Etienne for what he is, an every-week boom flex play with a floor that won’t kill you (6.5 half-PPR points week 1, 6.8 half-PPR points week 2).  Those boom weeks could provide 20+ points from your flex spot, winning you that week and putting another W on the board.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave

The rookie from Ohio State has seen roughly three-quarters of the Saints’ offensive snaps this season and was a big part of the offense in week two against Tampa. Olave was targeted a team-high 13 times in the loss to the Buccaneers. His day was underwhelming though, as he failed to find a couple of deep Jameis Winston pass attempts, one leading to an interception. He also lost a fumble on what looked to be an impressive deep ball catch. Ultimately, Olave finished with five receptions for 80 yards and a fumble. But the willingness to make him an integral part of this offense and the clear deep target for known gun-slinger Winston was clear to see and exciting for those who have Olave on their roster. 

After leading the Saints in both targets and yards in only his second NFL game and against their biggest divisional rivals, I expect Olave to be a prominent feature for New Orleans this season. It’s only a matter of time until that deep ball connection with Winston clicks, maybe even as soon as Sunday when the Saints take on the 0-2 Panthers in Charlotte. 

Noah Brown

A guy likely on the waiver wire before week one, on your bench, heading into week two, and now in your starting lineup for week three? The now six-year veteran has had an offensive snap percentage of at least 85 in both games this season and put together a 5/91/1 stat line in a Cowboys win against Cincinnati on Sunday. Michael Gallup will likely be active for his first game time of the season. It’s expected that Gallup will be on a snap count, leaving Brown as the likely WR2 after CeeDee Lamb for at least one more week. He’ll be up against a Giants secondary that lacks talent despite being 2-0.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin

 It is fair to say the tight end position has largely been a wasteland so far this season, with several pre-season favorites failing to hit the heights we expected. But as we enter week 3, trends are starting to take shape, and we are starting to gain a picture of players seeing better than expected usage. One such player is Tyler Conklin.

You would be hard-pressed to find many analysts who were loudly touting Conklin before the season, but his rise to claim the TE1 spot on the Jets has been clear. The Flacco-led Jets have been one of the most pass-happy teams, and currently lead the league in passing attempts after two games. The Jets have thrown the ball 104 times, around a staggering 70% of offensive plays this year.

Conklin has been a clear beneficiary of this uptick. The free agent acquisition from the Vikings this off-season ranks joint-fourth in the league in targets at the tight end position with 16, reeling in ten for 51 receiving yards and a touchdown. While the numbers are hardly ground-breaking, his role has been cemented. Conklin has also participated in an average of 95% of offensive snaps over the first two weeks. With the tight end rarely leaving the field, at TE16 in FantasyPros’ week 3 half-PPR ECR, he again possesses plenty of upside this coming weekend. The Jets now face another pass-heavy team in the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks second in passing plays this year, and the Jets currently rank 32nd in defensive pass DVOA.

All in all, we should expect another fantasy-friendly game. While he may not post enormous receiving yard totals, Conklin’s role in this offense appears to be secure, and the targets should remain – presenting fantasy managers with a solid floor. He represents a strong streaming option in week 3.

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Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 3 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!