Chasing Upside in Week 17
Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Chasing Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!
Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Chasing Upside in Week 17!
Quarterback
Follow @KeithFlemmingMike White, New York Jets
If I’m being honest, there are not a lot of great options at QB outside the Top 12 this week. For that reason, I am going away from my normal strategy when selecting an upside pick. Normally I want someone with a great matchup. The Seahawks D is very good versus wide receivers, and the Jets are not a team that can consistently move the ball in the passing game using only their tight ends and running backs. However, I think you can make a case that Seattle is not as good as it appears versus wide receivers, and Mike White has played well enough in all his starts to warrant a selection for this piece. As you can see below, anyone who follows the Jets knows the difference between this offense led by White and when it’s not.
First, let’s look at Seattle’s ability to stop the opposing team’s wide receivers. As you can see below, they have been fortunate in playing teams without their best pass catcher and played a significant number of weak QBs.
Seattle is ranked 3rd vs. WRs
But they played
- Detroit without St Brown
- Rams without Kupp
- Cardinals in Game 1 without Hopkins
- Chargers without Josh Palmer/ Keenan Allen was injured in the 1st half
- 49ers without Samuel
- And some of the QBs they have faced this year include John Wolford(Rams), Sam Darnold(Panthers), Andy Dalton(Saints), Marcus Mariota(Falcons), Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones
Mike White has 3 starts this season, has scored double figures in all 3, and is averaging 18.33 ppg in those games. He’s been a top-10 fantasy QB in 2 of his 3 starts. He’s on a team that averages the 7th most passes per game in the league, he’s 3rd in expected fantasy pts per game at QB, and he’s been able to unleash their star rookie receiver Garrett Wilson more than any other Jets QB. For all these reasons, if you are looking for a QB with upside outside the Top 12, I would go with Mike White.
Running Back
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanTyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
We have been hot for the first two weeks of the playoffs. I recommend chasing Jerick McKinnon for Week 15 and Tyler Allgeier for Week 16, and they finished as the RB1 and RB2, respectively! It is now Championship Week, so it is not the time to get cute. However, there have been a lot of injuries. Usually, I pick a player ranked outside of FantasyPros’ ECR Top-24, but I am going to “cheat” a little this week. We are going to do a repeat and chase this week’s ECR RB21, Tyler Allgeier!
Again, we are not getting cute this week and are keeping it simple. Tyler Allgeier is getting volume and has a great matchup at home against the dysfunctional Arizona Cardinals. Since the bye week, Allgeier has averaged 20.5 opportunities and 20 touches over the last two weeks. He did not score a touchdown last week and was still the RB12. Allgeier’s volume gives him a great floor, and his matchup and touchdown potential give him league-winning upside this week. Tyler Allgeier has clearly taken over the backfield from Cordarelle Patterson, and the Falcons want to run as much as they can each game. Do not overthink it. If Tyler Allgeier is on your roster, get him in your starting lineup and chase the league championship!
Tyler Allgeier with two weeks left in his rookie season:
— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) December 25, 2022
▪️944 Total Yards
▪️3 Touchdowns
817 Rushing Yards
4.9 YPC
2 Rushing TDS
15 Receptions
127 Receiving Yards
1 Receiving TD
…one of the greatest seasons by a Falcons rookie running back ever 🐐pic.twitter.com/GdgiTl83nA
Wide Receiver
Follow @bill_mustafaIsaiah Hodgins, New York Giants
The former Oregon State Beaver has impressed mightily since being given his chance to play meaningful football by Brian Daboll and the New York Giants.
Drafted in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills, Hodgins did nothing but make plays during his pre-season opportunities. But, a combination of injuries and depth at the position saw him relegated to the practice squad and regularly released and re-signed for roster management purposes.
To the dismay of many BillsMafia members, who had been imploring Sean McDermott to make Hodgins a regular part of the WR rotation, the New York Giants claimed Isaiah Hodgins in early November to help solve their need at the position. Hodgins has grabbed the opportunity with both hands and has not looked back.
Since joining Big Blue, Hodgins has scored three TDs in only seven games. He broke out in the offense last week against Minnesota, posting career highs in targets, receptions, and yards, posting an 8/89/1 stat line on 12 targets.
Hodgins is winning his routes over 50% of the time vs both Man and Zone, and he’ll be up against an Indianapolis Colts secondary void of talent outside of Stephon Gilmore, who will likely follow Darius Slayton during this contest. Hodgins’ size makes him an ideal red-zone target. He’s secured all five of his red-zone targets so far this season, and those targets are gold for fantasy points returns.
I’ll be starting Hodgins in the FLEX for one of my dynasty league finals and hoping his upside in this contest can bring home the championship.
Tight End
Follow @JorgeBEdwardsNoah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Over the past three games, Noah Fant has played well for the Seahawks and fantasy managers. He’s been a Top 12 tight end in half-PPR, averaging 8.2 PPG, and this week, during championship week, Fant has a decent matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. It’s not a pretty play, but with all the attention the Jets’ defense will have on Seattle’s rushing and receiving options, Fant might have sneaky upside in helping fantasy managers in desperate need for tight-end fantasy production this week.