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Chasing Upside in Week 16

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Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Chasing Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Chasing Upside in Week 16!

Quarterback

Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia Eagles

This pick is contingent on Jalen Hurts missing the game Saturday, and I would be shocked if the Eagles let him play. They need one win in their final three games to lock up the one seed and a bye in the NFC. I’m not sure why they would risk Hurts making the injury worse. Not to mention they have a more than capable backup in Gardner Minshew. He made two starts for the Eagles last season, scoring 15.7 pts or more in both; he’s scored 15 or more pts in 9 of his last 11 starts dating back to 2020, Including two passing touchdowns vs. The Cowboys in the regular season finale last year, where the Eagles rested almost all their starters. 

Minshew has earned the title of one of the better backup Quarterbacks in football, but there are other reasons to like him this week. The Cowboys passing D is not in great form. They’ve allowed two or more touchdowns in 4 of their last seven games, including a four-touchdown performance by Trevor Lawrence in the Jaguars’ comeback win last week. The Eagles will also have their full complement of offensive weapons. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have been great all year, plus Dallas Goedert is returning from IR this week. Goedert had his best game as a pro in Week 13 last season with Minshew catching six passes, on six targets, for 105 yards and two scores. Finally, the Eagles should be more pass-heavy without Hurts, meaning more opportunities for Brown/Smith/Goedert in the passing game. Minshew will also be playing for his beloved college coach Mike Leech, who passed away last week.

Running Back

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

I have plenty of misses this season, but it was fantastic to nail my upside running back for the first round of the fantasy football playoffs last week. Jerick McKinnon was THE RB1 for Week 15! We will continue to trust the process this week. You can chase the upside of the FantasyPros ECR RB37, Tyler Allgeier, for your semifinal matchup.

I prefer better matchups, but we are dealing with many weather concerns this week. The Baltimore Ravens’ defense is tough against the running game. However, the Atlanta Falcons’ offense wants to run the ball as much as possible. Rookie quarterback, Desmond Ridder, had his first career NFL start in Week 15, and he did not look ready for the NFL. Head Coach Arthur Smith knows the best chance to beat a depleted Ravens team is to run the ball and control the time of possession. Last week, Allgeier had a 49% snap share with 18 total opportunities (17 rush attempts). Cordarrelle Patterson had a 50% snap share with 17 total opportunities (14 rush attempts). Essentially, the running backs have a 50-50 split, but Allegeier has looked the most dynamic. Yards per carry (ypc) is not a perfect running back stat, but it is encouraging to see Allgeier average 6.29 ypc over his last four games. That included two tough matchups against Washington and Pittsburgh. Allgeier has an upside because he has the best chance of a high-volume workload in that range of the running back ranks.

Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

 

It’s been a tough year for one of last season’s fantasy darlings. Renfrow was a must-start throughout the 2021-2022 season. But after missing eight games this season and struggling to produce with the target scraps left over after Davante Adams gets his fill, it’s been a regression for one of the NFL’s premier slot receivers. 

Renfrow has a chance to produce his first meaningful fantasy football scoring output this week as the Raiders head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. 

After missing five straight games, Renfrow returned to the field last week. He worked in a limited capacity, only seeing 43% of offensive snaps, but it’s fair to expect that to rise after blowing off the cobwebs against the Patriots. 

Pittsburgh ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to WRs, according to Lineups.com, and the Steelers don’t have a designated slot corner outside of journeyman Arthur Maulet. 

With all the attention Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller are likely to garner from the Steeler defense, this could be a prime opportunity for Renfrow to show up for his disappointed fantasy managers this season.

Tight End

Cade Otton, The Tampa Bay Buccanneers

Going against one of the most friendly teams in allowing fantasy points to the tight end position, Cade Otton has a chance to shine here for Tampa. Otton has been sporadic in his TE finishes in fantasy all season, but he has been a Top 10 TE three times and a Top 5 TE twice. Given the matchup, I would not be surprised to see him have Top 5 upside this week!

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 16 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week

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