Chasing Upside in Week 14
Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!
Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 14!
Quarterback
Tyler Huntley, Baltimore Ravens
Follow @KeithFlemmingHuntley relieved Lamar Jackson last week versus the Denver Broncos, leading them to a come-from-behind victory against one of the better defenses in the league. Huntley ended the game with 16.6 fantasy points while completing 27 of 32 passes for 187 yards, with 41 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Huntley’s matchup and ability to sub for Lamar last year make him a must-add if you don’t currently have a QB 1 on your roster.
Tyler Huntley rushing stat lines in starts OR games where he played 80+% of snaps last 2 years
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 6, 2022
7/40
6/45
13/73/2
6/54/0
12/72/0
10/41/1
Avg 9/54/0.5
There are many reasons I am bullish on Huntley for this week and potentially several weeks as Lamar heals from his latest injury. The primary reason is his rushing ability. Huntley has averaged 54 yards per game when he plays at least 80% of the snaps. The lowest rushing number he’s had in those games is 40 yards, which considerably raises his floor. Huntley averaged 17 points per game over that same stretch and scored double digits in five of six. Not only does he have a high floor, but the potential for a monster game, as evidenced by his 35 points explosion against Green Bay last season.
Mark Andrews averages 17.4 fantasy points per game with Tyler Huntley in the lineup, vs 12.3 in other games.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) December 4, 2022
Huntley is facing a Pittsburgh defense that has struggled against the pass most of this season, giving up 17 passing touchdowns in their last eight games. Finally, what makes me the most confident in Huntley is his impact on Baltimore’s best weapon, Mark Andrews. Last season Andrews saw 36% of his targets on the season, 44% of his TDs, 40% of his receptions, and 36% of his receiving yards in five games with Huntley at QB. Baltimore’s offense has struggled this year. This is due to their poor backfield performance, and the disappointing season Andrews is having. Five games is a significant enough sample size for me to expect Andrews to have a huge game versus Pittsburgh. Potentially unleashing Baltimore’s best weapon and Huntley’s ability with his legs is why I’m so high on him this week.
Running Back
Dontrelle Hilliard, Tennessee Titans
Follow @FFTylerHeilWell, last week went…poorly. I recommended an upside play of Jamycal Hasty with Travis Etienne possibly banged up. Travis Etienne was, in fact, healthy, so much so that he had his highest snap share of the season at an insane 88%, while Hasty received three whole snaps. This week, I can achieve a better outcome with another deep pull/emergency play.
With week 14 having the most teams on bye of any week in the season, fantasy managers are scraping the bottom of the barrel for a starter this week. Lucky for you, I dove head first into that metaphorical barrel and came back up with Dontrelle Hilliard. Hilliard has established himself as the Titans passing down back. This fact is illustrated by the Titans passing the ball 77.5% of the time when he is on the field. Hilliard has run a route on 59 total plays over the past four weeks accounting for 48% of his total routes run for the season. He might only have eight targets to show for it, but the opportunity is there. Those opportunities became more abundant for receivers on a Titans team that will miss Treylon Burks this week.
The Titans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Music City this weekend. It just so happens that the Jaguars’ defense is surrendering the second most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs. With these increased opportunities against the defense with the second-worst defensive DVOA against the pass this season, Dontrelle Hilliard might have the makings of a perfect storm.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Follow @FFChalupaBatmanIt is the final week of the fantasy football regular season. There is a good chance that you have to win to get into the playoffs or get a better seed. There are six NFL teams on bye this week too. Therefore, you may not be starting all of your studs. It is time to chase upside to get that ultimate win!
Just give James Cook the ball 🔥pic.twitter.com/5OMLQcwXQY
— Bills Nation (@BillsNationCP) December 2, 2022
James Cook is the FantasyPros ECR RB29 this week. Cook is coming off his best fantasy performance in Week 13 with 13.5 fantasy points, and he did not score a touchdown. He had a season-high snap share (43%) and touches (20). Over the last two weeks, Cook had 11 targets! That is encouraging utilization for the rookie running back toward the end of the season. Technically, he is the RB2 on his team, but Devin Singletary had a season-low snap share (44%) in Week 13. That could be a one-game blip, or we may be seeing a new trend. Last week, James Cook looked like the most dynamic running back on the team. The Bills have a tough matchup this week against the New York Jets, but I am encouraged by his targets. You must ensure James Cook is in your flex spot this week or the RB2 spot if the bye week is unkind to your roster.
“We call it a checkdown, but it almost appeared like that was the first read.”
— Erik Turner (@ErikJTurner) December 8, 2022
James Cook is going to play a major role down the stretch.
Bills Patriots Film Room ft @ChrisTrapasso:https://t.co/bL3sBouaQU pic.twitter.com/qHu3pYtUVf
Wide Receiver
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
Follow @bill_mustafaIn recent weeks, the former Michigan Wolverine has been a quietly effective fantasy asset. DPJ has produced double-digit points in four of his last five outings. He’s finished as a high-end WR3 in two outings and even managed a WR13 overall finish against Buffalo in week 11.
With running mate Amari Cooper a DNP on Friday, it’s questionable if he’ll be able to suit up, and if he does, in what capacity. However, in Cooper’s absence, DPJ would become Cleveland’s de-facto #1 receiver paving the way for a larger share of Deshaun Watson’s targets.
Watson was underwhelming in his first start as a Brown, but DPJ proved himself trustworthy, hauling in all three of his targets for 44 yards. That sure-handedness should appeal to Watson as he tries to shake off the rust after two years on the sideline.
Tight End
Greg Dulcich, The Denver Broncos
Follow @JorgeBenjaminEdwardsDulcich has had three Top 10 finishes this season in fantasy half PPR scoring. Last week we saw him used/be productive further downfield (14.2 yards per target) for Russell Wilson leading to his TE8 finish in fantasy point scoring. Against the Chiefs this week, Dulcich should get plenty of volume, making him a fantastic play that should make him a Top-10 tight end once again!