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Chasing Upside in Week 13

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Welcome to our team’s weekly article on Fantasy Football Upside in player performance for the upcoming week!

Each week we’re going to list players that we believe will outperform their Fantasy Pros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings, thereby giving you the advantage in setting your lineups for each week’s slate of games. So sit back, relax, and enjoy reading our article on Fantasy Football Upside in Week 13!

Quarterback

Mike White, New York Jets

I was all over Mike White as my bargain tier play last week on The Daily Fix Pod, and it worked out swimmingly, he scored 27 points. He is my bargain-tier play for the pod again this week, and I am doubling down by having him as my chasing upside play at quarterback.

The Jets have talented offensive weapons, even with Breece Hall being out for the year at running back. Garrett Wilson is averaging 20 points per game without Zach Wilson.  His total stat line in those games is 23 (46% of total season production) receptions for 309 yards (49%) and 4 touchdowns (100%). Tight End Tyler Conklin is also more consistent without Zach Wilson at quarterback, averaging 12 points per game. White has also allowed Elijah Moore to be fantasy relevant again.  Moore was benched earlier in the season for reasons that are still not clear. However, in White’s first start last week, Moore played like the rookie so many were high on last year, scoring 14 fantasy points (more than his previous six starts combined) and scoring his first touchdown of the season. 

I believe White with the Jets weapons is a great play regardless of who their opponent is.  Fortunately, their opponent this week, the Minnesota Vikings, are struggling this season on defense, particularly versus the pass. The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to score 20 or more points in five of their last six games and are coming off a game where they made Mac Jones look like Tom Brady putting up a season-high 26.28 points last week. Minnesota has struggled mightily against opposing number-one wide receivers.  Deandre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs each caught 12 passes versus this secondary for a combined 464 receiving yards. The Vikings have also struggled recently against tight ends, allowing four touchdowns to tight ends in their last six games.

White and the Jets will be a dangerous offense the rest of the way, and if White plays the way I believe he will this week, he will not be eligible for a chasing upside selection for much longer. I am all in on Mike White and Garrett Wilson this week. 

Running Back

Jamycal Hasty, Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne is fine.  He is totally fine.  Etienne could have gone back into the game.  We were being cautious.  Travis is already medically cleared for week 13. He’s good to go.

Stop me when you feel like you have watched this movie before.  A foot injury has proved to be a problem for many players in the past, and unfortunately, Etienne had his surgically repaired foot reinjured last week.  My view might be a glass-half-empty take on the situation, but this feels like a situation where Etienne is active but will be severely limited.  Etienne has not been a full participant in practice at all this week.  I can glean from the practice reports that they have reason to be cautious with him and will likely continue to take the conservative approach they took last week by not allowing him back in the game.

Jamycal Hasty will remain the lone backup option in the Jacksonville backfield this week with no Darrell Henderson yet. Hasty has shown that he is a capable NFL running back.  That capability allows him to take what’s given, and fortunately for him, the Lions are below average in preventing running back production.  Detroit ranks 18th in half PPR points per game allowed to opposing running backs.  The show of faith in Hasty for me was the team allowing him a massive 78% target share last week.  Additionally, Hasty received five targets and showed some juice by catching all five of those targets while racking up 67 yards and a touchdown.

Is Jamycal Hasty a talent that gets you excited to slide into your starting lineup? No.  Is he a capable player that could reward you with a volume-driven top-10 running back performance for a good offense? Yes.  Yes, he is.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

I am ready to be hurt again. I am chasing the upside with the FantasyPros ECR RB34, Kareem Hunt! This player cannot be sugarcoated with any great stats. Hunt has been a disappointment for fantasy this season. Honestly, this is 100% about the matchup. The Houston Texans are HORRENDOUS against the run. Therefore, I will chase the chance that Hunt gets a few extra touches in a great matchup.

I still need to give you some stats, so it isn’t just a gut call. Kareem Hunt has a 45.5% snap share this season, which is respectable behind Chubb’s 53.7%. According to RotoViz, the Cleveland Browns are 4th in the NFL in the number of rush plays per 60 minutes, with 31. It is reasonable to expect the Browns’ game plan against the Texans to be run-heavy. Nick Chubb is an amazing running back, but it would be unrealistic for him to get every carry. We already know Hunt is on the field just under half of the total plays per game. Therefore, if Hunt gets about 15 touches in this lucrative matchup, I expect him to exceed his projected points and current rank. According to FantasyPros, Hunt has exceeded his projected points only 23% of the time over the last 16 regular season games, going back to 2021.

There is plenty of risk with Kareem Hunt, but if your team needs upside this week to win your matchup, put him in your flex spot.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ drafting of a stud receiver seems to have become a biennial event, and their selection of George Pickens in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL Draft will only add to that lore. 

The big-bodied former Georgia Bulldog has taken to life in the pros like a fish to water. His impressive pre-season performances have rolled into the regular season, where he has become one of new starting quarterback Kenny Pickett’s favorite targets. 

Pickens has averaged nearly six targets per game and three touchdowns since Pickett became the starting QB, and he’ll look to bolster those stats against the Atlanta Falcons this week. 

The rookie pass catcher will likely see a lot of A.J. Terrell in what should be an exciting one-on-one matchup. Terrell has the advantage of experience, but the former Clemson Tiger has struggled a little this season. He has allowed a league-high seven touchdowns and an NFL Passer Rating of 126.7 in his coverage. 

Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Things were looking bleak for sophomore receiver Elijah Moore just a few weeks ago. Posting only three receptions since week five heading into last week’s matchup with the Chicago Bears and with the very public disdain for his usage in the offense, things weren’t looking good. 

Enter Mike White. The now-starting quarterback for the New York Jets White has built rapport with the then-rookie receiver during his four-game stint as the starter last season. Over those four games, Moore caught 17 of 26 targets for 208 yards and three receiving touchdowns. Although Moore only saw two targets last week, he hauled in both of those targets for 64 yards and his first TD of the season. 

There’s an obvious connection upgrade for Moore when catching passes from Mike White instead of Zach Wilson. This connection returns him to relevance and makes him a viable starting option for your fantasy football team.

Moore primarily works from the slot, where he’ll be working against the Vikings’ nickel corner Chandon Sullivan. It’s been a tough year for Sullivan. He has allowed a completion on 80% of targets and has given up 590 receiving yards when targeted. 

Look for Moore to build on his week 12 work with a higher target share this week as the Jets attempt to re-establish him in the now Mike White led offense.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

The half-PPR Fantasy Pros ECR TE15 heading into Sunday, Higbee heads into a matchup with the Seahawks, a team that has allowed the MOST points to the tight end position in fantasy football this season. There is not much in the way of “receiving options” for the Rams at this point in the season outside of Higbee. IMO, he has the greatest chance of outperforming his ECR out of every tight end ranked this week.

Thanks for reading our Chasing Upside in Week 13 article.

Don’t forget to check out our weekly rankings here!

Now go out there and crush your matchups this week!

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